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Election 05 by the Numbers - How Bad Was It?
So just how much should we read into the results of yesterday's elections? Many on the left are declaring a fundamental shift in the core of the electorate since 2004, and heralding a big swing to the left in the 2006 midterms. Surely the GOP suffered this go-round do to recent ugliness. But do the 2005 election returns really suggest any kind of significant shift?
Consider the following comparison of popular vote tallies in the 2004 Presidential election with last night's returns.
* Weighted average popular vote % for Governor, Lt. Governor, and Atty. Gen.
** Weighted average popular vote % against/for the Governor's 4 reform props
Let's also not forget that Republican Mike Bloomberg was re-elected by a margin of 20 percentage points (the largest margin in history) in a city that voted for Kerry over Bush by a margin of more than 50 points 12 months ago.
Yes, rumors of the demise of the party's majority status have been greatly exaggerated.
Handcrafted by Flip on November 9, 2005 |
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Comments
Interesting numbers. I'm not sure if lumping the Big Three Virginia candidates into one number is entirely valid, as the Republicans-voting-for-Dems probably just switch-hit for the gubernatorial vote. I think the most important vote is indeed the Virginia governorship - and the telling fact there is that Bush spent considerable political capital trying to get Kilgore elected, and failed. It's not referrendum-on-Ahnuld damning evidence, but it's significant. Thoughts?Posted by: Nor | Nov 9, 2005 9:37:26 AM
Does this mean that New York will vote Republican in 2008?Posted by: the man | Nov 9, 2005 11:33:54 AM
Also note that all four of the Soros/union backed ballot issues in Ohio (Issues 2-5) were soundly defeated to the point where not one of them carried a single county. Meanwhile, a ballot measure backed by the (very moderate) Republican Bob Taft, whose popularity is lowest among the 50 state governors, still passed by a comfortable margin.Posted by: Michael Swartz | Nov 9, 2005 8:29:23 PM
