More Belated Predictions

*sigh*

I'd resisted the urge to jump on the 2006 prediction bandwagon, but seeing as I broke the seal with my last post, here are a few quick hits for posterity:

Dow Jones Industrial Average finishes 12,800 (after piercing 13k).

The Fed raises rates twice more, topping out with Bernanke's debut at 4.75%, but retreats to 4.5% later in the year.

Sam Alito is confirmed without filibuster (or at least without any more than a short-lived symbolic filibuster, so as not to force the majority's hand on the Constitutional option). Even Kennedy and Schumer, when they relax and think about things rationally, realize there's a strong possibility of a 3rd nom coming Bush's way and they don't want to risk going into that battle stripped of their obstructionists' toolkit.  Bill Frist is given insufficient credit for making the adequately credible threat.

Republicans increase their bicameral majority:

• The GOP picks up 2 net Senate seats, but one of them is in Vermont, replacing Jim Jeffords who isn't precisely a Democrat, taxonomically speaking.  Jeffords' presumptive successor, declaredly "Independent" but actually Socialist Rep. Bernie Sanders, forces Vermonters to make a tougher decision about how "Independent" they really want to be.  Self-funded business mogul Richard Tarrant (who may have made as much as $100 million in 2005 when he sold his business to GE) succeeds by giving the Green Mountain State a saner option.  New Senate balance: 57-43.

• Republicans pick up 1 seat in the House.  Noting Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball's "Dirty Thirty", and assuming the U.S. economy and conditions in Iraq continue their steady improvement, Republicans complete their recovery from recent popularity troubles in time for the competitive races to fall roughly as indicated by early outlooks.  The 15 reddish races go to Republicans; the 7 bluish races go to Democrats; the 8 toss-ups split 4 apiece.  Among the thirty, the GOP nabs 19 and loses 11, for a net gain of 1 (18 of the 30 are Republican-held going into the election).  Included in the turnover is Vermont's only House seat, vacated (in vain) by Independent/Democrat/Socialist Bernie Sanders.  Democrats narrowly capture the vacancy created by Duke Cunningham's retirement.  New House balance: 232-203.

Both the U.S. and Great Britain begin moderate troop drawdowns in Iraq, as local authorities and armed services continue to increase in capacity and autonomy.  Rather than acknowledging this as the early realization of our ongoing long-term strategy for success, the left "applauds the President for finally joining them in the realization that we don't belong in Iraq" and pats each other on the back for staying resolutely on message and succeeding in compelling this "change in policy".

Israel launches targeted strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran.  The U.S. initiates multilateral talks with Ahmadinejad, but when it becomes ever-clearer that the man is truly deranged, we take the wheel in the military campaign to halt the country's nuclear development.  His weapons programs quickly and significantly compromised, Ahmadinejad scrambles to cut a deal and walks away with multinational concessions that are far too generous.

The economic growth spurred by George Bush's tax cuts is just too difficult for even Harry Reid to ignore with a straight face and Congress makes the cuts permanent.

The Flip-Verboom wedding is not only the society event of the year, but also one of the most fun-to-say hyphenated phrases since Hale-Bopp.