Suitably Flip

Pay Attention, America!

According to a WaPo poll that came out a couple weeks ago, the approval rating of Bush's handling of the economy is an anemic 46%.  Yes, that's up from 36% three months ago, but I can't help noticing that 46% is less than half.

Color me baffled.

Now, an argument can be made that the policies of a President don't correlate strongly with the economy, or at very least that the consequences of such policies lag their implementation by quarters or years.  Fair enough.  As such, maybe they should include "That's a cruddy question" among the response choices.

But they don't.  So one has to assume that, despite the question's cruddiness, the proxy question that respondents are largely answering is, "Do you think the economy is doing well?" or perhaps, to allow for a tinge of President-centric reflection, "Do you think the economy is doing well, handicapping somewhat for macro issues beyond the control of the President, like real estate or stock market bubbles, terrorism, etc.?"

For less than half of respondents to come up with an affirmative response to this question must mean a large swath (52% to be exact) of the American public is either woefully misinformed or is simply choosing to answer a poor proxy to that poor proxy, namely, "Do you like the President and his policies?"

Today's fresh evidence that the economy is not only strong, but stronger even than economists (who do pay attention and had already thought the economy was strong) had thought comes to us from the U.S. Commerce Department, whose January report shows ex-auto retail sales were up 2.2% that month (the strongest showing in more than 6 years, and double the increase economists were expecting).

Warm weather, increasing use of gift cards, and a low savings rate all contributed to the gangbusters number, but then again, economists were largely aware of these variables and still didn't see this whopper coming.

"[T]he magnitude of the rise should pour a lot of cold water on the idea that the consumer is on the verge of collapsing," Stanley said.

Economists believe that economic growth, after slowing to a modest pace of 1.1 percent in the final three months of 2005, is rebounding sharply in the current quarter. Some economists are forecasting that economic output in the January-March period could surge at an annual rate as high as 5 percent.

Following on yesterday's release of the Economic Report of the President, which highlighted the resilience, strength, and flexibility of the American economy, despite natural disasters, pricey oil, and various geopolitical specters, this is just one more piece of data for people to fail to incorporate in a thoughtful, thorough analysis of whether they approve of the President's handling of the economy.

A reasonable person could make the argument that the economy's strength is unrelated the President's handling of it (I would disagree with that person, given the observable chronology of tax cuts and prosperity), but the argument that simply cannot be reasonably made (and is nonetheless stubbornly pervasive) is that the economy is in bad shape.  Or even that the economy is in less than great shape.

Unfortunately, if you're not watching CNBC or the Fox News Channel's Saturday business block, or reading the Wall Street Journal or directly from primary sources, you're likely being spoonfed a warped and unbalanced diet of cherry-picked pessimism and selective statistics designed to convince you that the sky is falling - that we're on the verge of another depression, that you'll never retire, that Wal-Mart and Exxon are stealing your grandparents' medicine in the middle of the night, and that it's all George Bush's fault.

I know you pay more attention to the world around you than to fall for the media's Big Lie that the economy is somehow in dire straits.  But if you run into one of those 52% who've either been hornswoggled or can't see beyond their blind hatred of all things Bush, try offering them some Unvarnished Truth.  That's usually the best way to distinguish between the two groups - the media-misled are by and large capable of rational thought and can often be persuayed by logical argument backed up clear evidence, whereas the blind haters are typically impervious to the truth and reason.

Previously, on the topic of the unreported strength of the economy:
2006 Economic Report of the President
Speaking of Taxes
Reason #411 Why Congress Must Make the Tax Cuts Permanent
Liveblogging the State of the Union
Oh Tax Cuts, Is There Anything You Can't Do?
Tax Cuts To the Rescue
Yet More Good Economic News
The Facts Are Not Enough
I Believe I Can Buy

Paying Attention:
Right Winged
Blogs for Bush
The Market

Comments

Pay Attention, America!

According to a WaPo poll that came out a couple weeks ago, the approval rating of Bush's handling of the economy is an anemic 46%.  Yes, that's up from 36% three months ago, but I can't help noticing that 46% is less than half.

Color me baffled.

Now, an argument can be made that the policies of a President don't correlate strongly with the economy, or at very least that the consequences of such policies lag their implementation by quarters or years.  Fair enough.  As such, maybe they should include "That's a cruddy question" among the response choices.

But they don't.  So one has to assume that, despite the question's cruddiness, the proxy question that respondents are largely answering is, "Do you think the economy is doing well?" or perhaps, to allow for a tinge of President-centric reflection, "Do you think the economy is doing well, handicapping somewhat for macro issues beyond the control of the President, like real estate or stock market bubbles, terrorism, etc.?"

For less than half of respondents to come up with an affirmative response to this question must mean a large swath (52% to be exact) of the American public is either woefully misinformed or is simply choosing to answer a poor proxy to that poor proxy, namely, "Do you like the President and his policies?"

Today's fresh evidence that the economy is not only strong, but stronger even than economists (who do pay attention and had already thought the economy was strong) had thought comes to us from the U.S. Commerce Department, whose January report shows ex-auto retail sales were up 2.2% that month (the strongest showing in more than 6 years, and double the increase economists were expecting).

Warm weather, increasing use of gift cards, and a low savings rate all contributed to the gangbusters number, but then again, economists were largely aware of these variables and still didn't see this whopper coming.

"[T]he magnitude of the rise should pour a lot of cold water on the idea that the consumer is on the verge of collapsing," Stanley said.

Economists believe that economic growth, after slowing to a modest pace of 1.1 percent in the final three months of 2005, is rebounding sharply in the current quarter. Some economists are forecasting that economic output in the January-March period could surge at an annual rate as high as 5 percent.

Following on yesterday's release of the Economic Report of the President, which highlighted the resilience, strength, and flexibility of the American economy, despite natural disasters, pricey oil, and various geopolitical specters, this is just one more piece of data for people to fail to incorporate in a thoughtful, thorough analysis of whether they approve of the President's handling of the economy.

A reasonable person could make the argument that the economy's strength is unrelated the President's handling of it (I would disagree with that person, given the observable chronology of tax cuts and prosperity), but the argument that simply cannot be reasonably made (and is nonetheless stubbornly pervasive) is that the economy is in bad shape.  Or even that the economy is in less than great shape.

Unfortunately, if you're not watching CNBC or the Fox News Channel's Saturday business block, or reading the Wall Street Journal or directly from primary sources, you're likely being spoonfed a warped and unbalanced diet of cherry-picked pessimism and selective statistics designed to convince you that the sky is falling - that we're on the verge of another depression, that you'll never retire, that Wal-Mart and Exxon are stealing your grandparents' medicine in the middle of the night, and that it's all George Bush's fault.

I know you pay more attention to the world around you than to fall for the media's Big Lie that the economy is somehow in dire straits.  But if you run into one of those 52% who've either been hornswoggled or can't see beyond their blind hatred of all things Bush, try offering them some Unvarnished Truth.  That's usually the best way to distinguish between the two groups - the media-misled are by and large capable of rational thought and can often be persuayed by logical argument backed up clear evidence, whereas the blind haters are typically impervious to the truth and reason.

Previously, on the topic of the unreported strength of the economy:
2006 Economic Report of the President
Speaking of Taxes
Reason #411 Why Congress Must Make the Tax Cuts Permanent
Liveblogging the State of the Union
Oh Tax Cuts, Is There Anything You Can't Do?
Tax Cuts To the Rescue
Yet More Good Economic News
The Facts Are Not Enough
I Believe I Can Buy

Paying Attention:
Right Winged
Blogs for Bush
The Market