Suitably Flip

Puzzled In Punxsutawney

Well, it's Groundhog Day.  Again.

Seer of seers, prognosticator of prognosticators, celebrated rodent meteorologist and film star Punxsutawney Phil reportedly made the early spring call this morning, but I'm left wondering: did Phil's phorecast take into account the new daylight savings calendar?

Our clocks will undertake their "spring" three weeks earlier than last year, but it's unclear whether and how that affected the prediction?  It'll stay lighter later earlier this year, but does that affect Phil's measure of "springness"?  Or is it some kind of formulation based on heating degree days?  And what would it have meant if he'd predicted 6 more weeks of winter?  Is that partially offset by netting out the three week shift or do you assume he accounted for it in his calcuations, meaning you add the two together to get the unadjusted prediction?

None of these questions appear to be addressed in Phil's PHAQ, despite the changeover presenting the gravest threat to the nation's technical systems since Y2K.

Don't think a lowly whistlepig cares to ponder such things or even has an awareness of man's societal institutions?  Phil put that idea to rest in 2004 with his biting comical barb at a freshly unearthed Saddam Hussein.

And if you take the time to pay attention, Phil's report is actually quite a bit more detailed than simply freaking out (or not) at his shadow.

He tells the future, he waxes political, and he busts rhymes.

El Nino has caused high winds, heavy snow, ice and freezing temperatures in the west.
Here in the East with much mild winter weather we have been blessed.

Global warming has caused a great debate.
This mild winter makes it seem just great.

On this Groundhog Day we think of one thing.
Will we have winter or will we have spring?

On Gobbler's Knob I see no shadow today.
I predict that early spring is on the way.

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Puzzled In Punxsutawney

Well, it's Groundhog Day.  Again.

Seer of seers, prognosticator of prognosticators, celebrated rodent meteorologist and film star Punxsutawney Phil reportedly made the early spring call this morning, but I'm left wondering: did Phil's phorecast take into account the new daylight savings calendar?

Our clocks will undertake their "spring" three weeks earlier than last year, but it's unclear whether and how that affected the prediction?  It'll stay lighter later earlier this year, but does that affect Phil's measure of "springness"?  Or is it some kind of formulation based on heating degree days?  And what would it have meant if he'd predicted 6 more weeks of winter?  Is that partially offset by netting out the three week shift or do you assume he accounted for it in his calcuations, meaning you add the two together to get the unadjusted prediction?

None of these questions appear to be addressed in Phil's PHAQ, despite the changeover presenting the gravest threat to the nation's technical systems since Y2K.

Don't think a lowly whistlepig cares to ponder such things or even has an awareness of man's societal institutions?  Phil put that idea to rest in 2004 with his biting comical barb at a freshly unearthed Saddam Hussein.

And if you take the time to pay attention, Phil's report is actually quite a bit more detailed than simply freaking out (or not) at his shadow.

He tells the future, he waxes political, and he busts rhymes.

El Nino has caused high winds, heavy snow, ice and freezing temperatures in the west.
Here in the East with much mild winter weather we have been blessed.

Global warming has caused a great debate.
This mild winter makes it seem just great.

On this Groundhog Day we think of one thing.
Will we have winter or will we have spring?

On Gobbler's Knob I see no shadow today.
I predict that early spring is on the way.