Suitably Flip

Volatiler Still

Another day, another monster last-hour move in the equity markets.  The S&P 500 put up the biggest percentage gain, rising more than 2.4%, but since we've been focusing on the Dow lately, let's just keep doing that.

No slouch, the blue chip average soared more than 280 points today, which was enough to put it back within 4% of its all-time high of just over 14,000.

Below is your updated Dow volatility chart, which shows the 10-day moving average absolute value percentage change, which reached a new multi-year high today for the severalth consecutive session.

And if you're curious, the hideous thing below is the same gauge plotted over the last 20 years.  Note the violent spikes timed with notable market inflection points.  If you squint really hard, you might be able to see that those spikes tend to precede the turning points, so the periods of wild volatility aren't just measured effects of the trend reversals, but frequently signals thereof.  The current spike is still humbled by its bubble, post-bubble, and pre-crash-of-'87 brethren (in part due to my re-calibrating for percentage - rather than absolute - swings), but it's still volatility unlike anything we've seen in more than four years.  And it's still climbing.

Previously:
Volatiler and Volatiler
Uncommon Volatility

Comments

Volatiler Still

Another day, another monster last-hour move in the equity markets.  The S&P 500 put up the biggest percentage gain, rising more than 2.4%, but since we've been focusing on the Dow lately, let's just keep doing that.

No slouch, the blue chip average soared more than 280 points today, which was enough to put it back within 4% of its all-time high of just over 14,000.

Below is your updated Dow volatility chart, which shows the 10-day moving average absolute value percentage change, which reached a new multi-year high today for the severalth consecutive session.

And if you're curious, the hideous thing below is the same gauge plotted over the last 20 years.  Note the violent spikes timed with notable market inflection points.  If you squint really hard, you might be able to see that those spikes tend to precede the turning points, so the periods of wild volatility aren't just measured effects of the trend reversals, but frequently signals thereof.  The current spike is still humbled by its bubble, post-bubble, and pre-crash-of-'87 brethren (in part due to my re-calibrating for percentage - rather than absolute - swings), but it's still volatility unlike anything we've seen in more than four years.  And it's still climbing.

Previously:
Volatiler and Volatiler
Uncommon Volatility