GOP Primary Scoreboard - Nevada/South Carolina Edition

The last few votes are still dribbling in in South Carolina, but today's outcomes are assured, so let's get a look at the leaderboard.  (Play-by-play coverage of today's action is here).

Mitt Romney prevailed in Nevada with an enormous margin of 38 points over his nearest rival.  John McCain edged out John Huckabee by about 3 points in South Carolina, with Thompson and Romney taking 3rd and 4th, respectively.

Despite this being the first time Romney has failed to finish in the top 2, he retains his lead in each category on the board.  Most notably, the simple average of Mitt's vote share through the first 6 states stands at 38%, more than 17 points ahead of McCain.

While tomorrow's favored media headline will doubtless be that John McCain is now the "clear frontrunner," the numbers remind us that Romney has the most wins, the best average finish, and the most delegates (not to mention the most money).

Thompson's speech tonight sounded like he's getting ready to bow out, which may shake up the game board a bit.  I'd think his supporters would tend to reach out for Romney more than McCain, but obviously any overtures or endorsements Thompson may make upon exiting could change that.

We now begin a lengthy 9 days of rest, during which the 4 remaining viable contenders (Rudy, Mitt, Huck, and McCain) will hump around Florida (where as much as a third of voters may have already voted).  At this point, they're all within a range of 5 or 6 points, but today's events may push a point or so away from Huckabee and Thompson and toward Mitt and McCain.

Probably relatively unaffected by today's excitement is Giuliani, who finds himself the subject of the other false but popular media truism right now - namely that Rudy's bid is simply busted, even in his firewall state of Florida.  The fact that such a large portion of votes have likely already been cast (not to mention the fact that the most recent poll has Rudy winning the state) tends to cast some doubt on that bit of considered punditry.

If any of the 4 viables can be deemed doomed, it's likely Huckabee.  He failed to win highly evangelical South Carolina and he underperformed Romney even among the evangelical block in both Michigan and Nevada.  Iowa is looking more and more like the only trick in Huckabee's bag, and it's getting to be a several states-old trick.

I'd probably give the other three roughly even shakes at Florida.  Mitt's got a money advantage, McCain's got a polling advantage, and Giuliani's (probably) got an advantage among the early birds who've already cast their votes.

If I had to guess, I guess I'd guess Romney will take the Sunshine State, 1) because he's probably been able to mobilize his ground game there a little earlier, while the others were battling in South Carolina, 2) his support demographic skews older than his rivals, 3) because the scoreboard indicates that when you survey a wide and diverse swath of Republican voters, Romney's broad support shines through, and 4) because he's my pick and I'm thinking wishfully.

Update:  The results of a poll taken by Patrick Ruffini seem to support my assumption about the Fredheads opting (strongly) for Mitt if their candidate withdraws.

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Previously:
Silver Palmetto Day [Update: Romney, Clinton Win NV; McCain Wins SC]
Updated Michigan Count Gives Mitt Outright Majority In Delegate Race
GOP Primary Scoreboard - Michigan Edition
GOP Primary Scoreboard