Suitably Flip

Last Minute Iowa Supplemental Prediction [Updates: Huck, Obama Win Decisively]

Yesterday, I gave my picks for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in tonight's caucus contests.

I'm leaving them where there are, but I'm going to offer the refinement that I think Obama will wind up winning it in a walk, by - let's say - 10 points.  (But it won't stop Hillary from winning the nomination.)

On the Republican side, I think it winds up being much tighter, but still decisive - I'll peg Romney over Huckabee by 2 points.

Republican:
1. Romney
2. Huckabee (-2%)
3. McCain (-8%)

Democrat:
1. Obama
2. Clinton (-10%)
3. Edwards (-15%)

Update:  Hot Air has a coverage round-up and a flurry of real-time updates, now that results are starting to come in.

Update:  Fox News officially projects Huckabee wins, with 36% to Romney's 23% and 15% of precincts reporting.

Update:  Huck's lead over Romney has now shrunk from 13 to 8 (42% reporting).  I can live with that.  Meanwhile, Obama is slowly stretching his lead (3 over Edwards and 4 over Clinton).  If this holds and Clinton comes in third (albeit a close third), expect the spin to be trained squarely on 1992, when Bubba came in third behind Harkin and Tsongas.

Update:  FNC now projects Obama wins (35-31-31, with Hillary in third) with 75% reporting.

Update:  Obama still stretching: Now at 36, with Edwards at 31 and Clinton at 30.  It appears all the second tier votes (mostly Richardson and Biden) were indeed anti-Clinton votes, as evidenced by the second round reallocation that seems to account for Obama's expansion throughout the evening.

Post-mortem:  Well, my Romney pick didn't pan out of course, but he kept the loss to single digits (which seemed in doubt earlier in the night) and managed to maintain a double-digit lead over the rest of the pack.  In the end though, Mitt couldn't overcome the torrential turnout among evangelicals - perhaps as high as 60% of caucus-goers. The prognosticatory consolation prize I'll take from this night is calling the relative Obama-Clinton performance (nearly) correctly.  I said he'd trounce her by 10 points.  With 97% of precincts reporting, he's got her by 9.  (Consensus Iowa polling had suggested the margin would be about a point and a half.)

With her third place finish, the expletives and lamps must be flying at Clinton HQ tonight.  What apparently isn't flying is the American flag.  (HT: Bryan)

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Last Minute Iowa Supplemental Prediction [Updates: Huck, Obama Win Decisively]

Yesterday, I gave my picks for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in tonight's caucus contests.

I'm leaving them where there are, but I'm going to offer the refinement that I think Obama will wind up winning it in a walk, by - let's say - 10 points.  (But it won't stop Hillary from winning the nomination.)

On the Republican side, I think it winds up being much tighter, but still decisive - I'll peg Romney over Huckabee by 2 points.

Republican:
1. Romney
2. Huckabee (-2%)
3. McCain (-8%)

Democrat:
1. Obama
2. Clinton (-10%)
3. Edwards (-15%)

Update:  Hot Air has a coverage round-up and a flurry of real-time updates, now that results are starting to come in.

Update:  Fox News officially projects Huckabee wins, with 36% to Romney's 23% and 15% of precincts reporting.

Update:  Huck's lead over Romney has now shrunk from 13 to 8 (42% reporting).  I can live with that.  Meanwhile, Obama is slowly stretching his lead (3 over Edwards and 4 over Clinton).  If this holds and Clinton comes in third (albeit a close third), expect the spin to be trained squarely on 1992, when Bubba came in third behind Harkin and Tsongas.

Update:  FNC now projects Obama wins (35-31-31, with Hillary in third) with 75% reporting.

Update:  Obama still stretching: Now at 36, with Edwards at 31 and Clinton at 30.  It appears all the second tier votes (mostly Richardson and Biden) were indeed anti-Clinton votes, as evidenced by the second round reallocation that seems to account for Obama's expansion throughout the evening.

Post-mortem:  Well, my Romney pick didn't pan out of course, but he kept the loss to single digits (which seemed in doubt earlier in the night) and managed to maintain a double-digit lead over the rest of the pack.  In the end though, Mitt couldn't overcome the torrential turnout among evangelicals - perhaps as high as 60% of caucus-goers. The prognosticatory consolation prize I'll take from this night is calling the relative Obama-Clinton performance (nearly) correctly.  I said he'd trounce her by 10 points.  With 97% of precincts reporting, he's got her by 9.  (Consensus Iowa polling had suggested the margin would be about a point and a half.)

With her third place finish, the expletives and lamps must be flying at Clinton HQ tonight.  What apparently isn't flying is the American flag.  (HT: Bryan)