Suitably Flip

Romney, McCain Roll Into Michigan Primary Dead Even

[Bumped - scroll for updates and results...]

Well, almost dead.  The RCP average has Mitt exactly 1 point 2.7 points ahead, 27.5 to 26.5 29.0 to 26.3.  Each is double-digits ahead of #3 Huckabee, so I'm discounting the sporadic punditry that's been speculating lately about the possibility of a Michigan upset (because we know that the polling this season is infallible).

I do think it will wind up being close, but I foresee a Romney win.  By, let's say... 3 points.

1. Romney: 35
2. McCain: 32
3. Huckabee: 15
4. Thompson: 7
5. Giuliani: 5
6. Paul: 5

Michigan's open primary means Republicans, Democrats, and independents can all vote in it.  Since there's no contested primary on the Dem side, their participation in the GOP contest could be a wild card.  Daily Kos steward Markos Moulitsas, hoping desperately to be mistaken for a Machiavellian genius, is encouraging his minions to vote for Romney for mischief's sake, under the assumption that if he doesn't win today, he drops out.  Kos reasons his side prefers Romney staying in the race so that the well-funded bloodsport of primary battling will continue among Republicans, presumably injuring the eventual nominee.

(This idea seemed to first occur to Kos shortly after the New Hampshire primary, in the wake of which more than a few Republican strategists were remarking that Hillary's victory had been a blessing, in that it saved the GOP from a quick, cheap, non-injurious Democratic primary.)

The Kos community - well trafficked as it is - hasn't had much luck influencing the many elections they've sought to sway in the past (even when mischief wasn't the primary goal), but if they were to make the difference and put Romney over the top (making him, I would surmise, the favorite for the nomination), that just might be a briar patch they regret throwing Republicans into.

I'll update the scoreboard (see below) once results are available tonight.

Update:  The RCP average now shows Romney with a 2.7 point lead over McCain.  That's still less than the margin of error of most polls, but among the 6 constituent polls that make up the average, 3 of them actually show Romney with a lead in excess of that poll's margin of error (5, 6, and 8), while the other 3 show McCain with a negligible lead of 1 point.  Effectively, half of the polls see a statistical tie, while the other half see statistically significant Romney victories.  At Intrade, the real-money contracts now favor a Romney victory as well.

Dan Riehl also notes that turnout in Michigan appears to be light today (following a snowy night), which tends to diminish independents' and Democrats' numbers more so than Republicans', which also bodes well for Romney, as he leads McCain strongly among registered Republicans in the state.

Update:  As of 7:20 pm (polls not yet closed, but early exit polls showing a good day for Mitt), Romney contracts are trading for 88 cents on the dollar, compared to 16.5 cents for McCain.

Update:  Via Allah, looks like Maverick may already be hitchhiking from Saginaw.

[L]ocal Detroit news channels are reporting that McCain is wheels up - he has left Michigan for South Carolina. Romney, meanwhile, is at the Embassy Suites Southfield outside Detroit where his supporters have gathered for a primary party. Some pretty strong tea leaves there.

A Romney campaign insider says they are getting exit poll numbers showing Romney up by six.

Update:  Fox News Channel is starting to report exit polling numbers:

Independents (25% of voters):McCain: 34, Romney: 23, Paul: 20, Huckabee: 15
Moderate Republicans: (33%): McCain: 39, Romney: 29, Huckabee: 13
Conservative Republicans (35%): McCain: 23, Romney: 38, Huckabee: 19

If those numbers are right, it suggests a mcuh closer race, with Romney and McCain roughly tied at 31%, not counting the impact of registered Democrats (~7% of votes cast).  But it's looking like those numbers aren't right (or not particularly meaningful anyway).

Update:  Here we go - per FNC, with <1% reporting (about 2,500 votes):

Romney: 39%
McCain: 34%
Huckabee: 12%
Paul: 6%
Thompson: 4%
Giuliani: 3%
Uncommitted: 1%
Hunter: 0%

(On the Dem side, Hillary is leading Uncommited 61-30, with Kucinich taking 7% and Gravel approximately 0%.  Neither Obama nor Edwards is on the ballot.)

Update:  6% reporting: Romney over McCain 37-31.

Update:  With 10% reporting, Fox calls it for Romney.  (They've also projected that Clinton will beat Uncommitted.)

Comments

Romney, McCain Roll Into Michigan Primary Dead Even

[Bumped - scroll for updates and results...]

Well, almost dead.  The RCP average has Mitt exactly 1 point 2.7 points ahead, 27.5 to 26.5 29.0 to 26.3.  Each is double-digits ahead of #3 Huckabee, so I'm discounting the sporadic punditry that's been speculating lately about the possibility of a Michigan upset (because we know that the polling this season is infallible).

I do think it will wind up being close, but I foresee a Romney win.  By, let's say... 3 points.

1. Romney: 35
2. McCain: 32
3. Huckabee: 15
4. Thompson: 7
5. Giuliani: 5
6. Paul: 5

Michigan's open primary means Republicans, Democrats, and independents can all vote in it.  Since there's no contested primary on the Dem side, their participation in the GOP contest could be a wild card.  Daily Kos steward Markos Moulitsas, hoping desperately to be mistaken for a Machiavellian genius, is encouraging his minions to vote for Romney for mischief's sake, under the assumption that if he doesn't win today, he drops out.  Kos reasons his side prefers Romney staying in the race so that the well-funded bloodsport of primary battling will continue among Republicans, presumably injuring the eventual nominee.

(This idea seemed to first occur to Kos shortly after the New Hampshire primary, in the wake of which more than a few Republican strategists were remarking that Hillary's victory had been a blessing, in that it saved the GOP from a quick, cheap, non-injurious Democratic primary.)

The Kos community - well trafficked as it is - hasn't had much luck influencing the many elections they've sought to sway in the past (even when mischief wasn't the primary goal), but if they were to make the difference and put Romney over the top (making him, I would surmise, the favorite for the nomination), that just might be a briar patch they regret throwing Republicans into.

I'll update the scoreboard (see below) once results are available tonight.

Update:  The RCP average now shows Romney with a 2.7 point lead over McCain.  That's still less than the margin of error of most polls, but among the 6 constituent polls that make up the average, 3 of them actually show Romney with a lead in excess of that poll's margin of error (5, 6, and 8), while the other 3 show McCain with a negligible lead of 1 point.  Effectively, half of the polls see a statistical tie, while the other half see statistically significant Romney victories.  At Intrade, the real-money contracts now favor a Romney victory as well.

Dan Riehl also notes that turnout in Michigan appears to be light today (following a snowy night), which tends to diminish independents' and Democrats' numbers more so than Republicans', which also bodes well for Romney, as he leads McCain strongly among registered Republicans in the state.

Update:  As of 7:20 pm (polls not yet closed, but early exit polls showing a good day for Mitt), Romney contracts are trading for 88 cents on the dollar, compared to 16.5 cents for McCain.

Update:  Via Allah, looks like Maverick may already be hitchhiking from Saginaw.

[L]ocal Detroit news channels are reporting that McCain is wheels up - he has left Michigan for South Carolina. Romney, meanwhile, is at the Embassy Suites Southfield outside Detroit where his supporters have gathered for a primary party. Some pretty strong tea leaves there.

A Romney campaign insider says they are getting exit poll numbers showing Romney up by six.

Update:  Fox News Channel is starting to report exit polling numbers:

Independents (25% of voters):McCain: 34, Romney: 23, Paul: 20, Huckabee: 15
Moderate Republicans: (33%): McCain: 39, Romney: 29, Huckabee: 13
Conservative Republicans (35%): McCain: 23, Romney: 38, Huckabee: 19

If those numbers are right, it suggests a mcuh closer race, with Romney and McCain roughly tied at 31%, not counting the impact of registered Democrats (~7% of votes cast).  But it's looking like those numbers aren't right (or not particularly meaningful anyway).

Update:  Here we go - per FNC, with <1% reporting (about 2,500 votes):

Romney: 39%
McCain: 34%
Huckabee: 12%
Paul: 6%
Thompson: 4%
Giuliani: 3%
Uncommitted: 1%
Hunter: 0%

(On the Dem side, Hillary is leading Uncommited 61-30, with Kucinich taking 7% and Gravel approximately 0%.  Neither Obama nor Edwards is on the ballot.)

Update:  6% reporting: Romney over McCain 37-31.

Update:  With 10% reporting, Fox calls it for Romney.  (They've also projected that Clinton will beat Uncommitted.)