Suitably Flip

Silver Palmetto Day [Update: Romney, Clinton Win NV; McCain Wins SC]

It's time, folks.  Afters weeks of anticipation, it's finally time for the ante-penultimate and the penultimate pre-Super Tuesday primaries, all crammed into one mildly interesting day.

First on the docket are Nevada's lunchtime caucuses (results of which will probably trickle in between 4 and 5 pm Eastern), where Mitt Romney's lead on the GOP side has been growing fast.  Clinton has also led Obama pretty consistently, but the margin is still narrow enough for the polling to be as hideously wrong as it was in New Hampshire.

In South Carolina, the real Republican fight is between Huckabee and McCain, with Romney and Fred battling for third.  Among Democrats, Obama's held onto the polling lead, but Clinton has been closing the gap.

To get it on the books, here are a few high-level predictions:

Nevada
1. Romney: 38
2. McCain: 21
3. Huckabee: 15

1. Obama: 43
2. Clinton: 41
2. Edwards: 10

South Carolina
1. Huckabee: 26
2. McCain: 24
3. Romney: 18

1. Clinton: 45
2. Obama: 40
3, Edwards: 10

I'm looking for "upsets" then, in both Democrat contests, inasmuch as I'm suggesting neither of the current poll-toppers will win the race they're supposed to.  I'm taking a cue from what happened in New Hampshire (normal, secret ballot voting which, per the Lemon effect, helped Hillary relative to the polling data) and Iowa (a public, open-outcry caucus, which per the anti-Lemon effect, helped Obama relative to the polling).  When the smoke clears, we'll hear a lot more grumbling about election fraud, the idiocy of pollsters, and some awkward fumbling for the hidden political truths about how each candidate managed to poach their victories.  But if one or both of these races does pan out this way (particularly if Hillary pulls off a convincing South Carolina win), an honest observer would have to acknowledge the unpalatable possibility that Senator Obama's true support will always be overstated by polling data (and open-outcry cauci).

I'll update the GOP scoreboard as soon as we have solid returns data.  With 34 delegates up for grabs in Nevada and 24 in South Carolina, Romney's lead over the rest of the field will likely widen by the end of the day, even if he takes 6th in South Carolina.

Update:   Huh.  That was quick.  As of 1 pm Eastern, Fox News and MSNBC are both projecting Romney has won the Nevada caucus.  I wonder if this very early news might translate into a small South Carolina bump.

I'll wait until we have some delegate insights and the South Carolina results before updating the board, but it's worth noting that Romney has now won a majority of the state contests to date.  Allah notes these results were supposed to come in at around 3:30, which suggests a Romney landslide.  If that's the case, he might be leaving Las Vegas with 30 or more fresh delegates, which could make him impervious to winner-take-all Florida, in terms of delegate count.

Update:  Very early returns (<1%) give Romney 46%.  Huckabee's back at a distant 5th, behind McCain, Paul, and Thompson.

Update:  This is interesting.  According to Nevada entrance polls, fully one quarter of caucus-goers classified themselves as Mormon (compared with just 9% statewide, per MormonWiki) and 94% of them planned to vote for Romney.

Update:  Meanwhile, the aspiring First Man is helping Hillary line up her excuses this afternoon by seeding a voter supression story in Nevada.

Update:  Thinking back to Michigan, it's worth remembering that Romney unexpectedly outperformed Huckabee among evangelicals.  I wonder if Huckabee's surprisingly poor performance this afternoon and Mitt's outperformance suggest Mitt's having some success at poaching vote share from Huckabee nationally.  Per the entrance poll, 19% of today's caucus-goers were evangelicals, and once again, they've opted for Mitt (32-24 over Huckabee).

Update:  With 35% in, it looks like they're about to call it for Clinton.  She currently leads Obama 50-45.

Update:  Indeed, Hillary wins Nevada with 51%.  And yet it looks like Obama won more delegates - 13 to Hillary's 12.

With 98% in, Mitt's Nevada take came in at 52%, giving him a 39-point margin over runner-up Ron Paul.  Yes, Ron Paul.

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Meanwhile, in South Carolina, early results are starting to trickle in.  With <1% reporting, it's McCain over Huckabee 33-28.  Romney's pulling third with 19%, 7 points ahead of Thompson.

With apologies to the Fredheads out there, isn't it about time to pull the plug on this thing?

Update:  With 22% reporting, McCain's extended his lead to 8 points.  Seems safe to say he's going to take it, but they're still saying too close too call.  Brit Hume claims the number crunchers see the race as "dead even" based on their precinct-by-precinct analysis.

Further down the card, Thompson (who's already made his good night speech) has slipped in front of Romney for third, though the gap is just a few hundred votes.

Update:  72% reporting now, but still no call.  McCain leads Huck 34-29.  Thompson leads Romney 16-15.

Update:  Finally, at 9:19 pm, with 82% reporting, McCain is called the winner. 

Comments

Silver Palmetto Day [Update: Romney, Clinton Win NV; McCain Wins SC]

It's time, folks.  Afters weeks of anticipation, it's finally time for the ante-penultimate and the penultimate pre-Super Tuesday primaries, all crammed into one mildly interesting day.

First on the docket are Nevada's lunchtime caucuses (results of which will probably trickle in between 4 and 5 pm Eastern), where Mitt Romney's lead on the GOP side has been growing fast.  Clinton has also led Obama pretty consistently, but the margin is still narrow enough for the polling to be as hideously wrong as it was in New Hampshire.

In South Carolina, the real Republican fight is between Huckabee and McCain, with Romney and Fred battling for third.  Among Democrats, Obama's held onto the polling lead, but Clinton has been closing the gap.

To get it on the books, here are a few high-level predictions:

Nevada
1. Romney: 38
2. McCain: 21
3. Huckabee: 15

1. Obama: 43
2. Clinton: 41
2. Edwards: 10

South Carolina
1. Huckabee: 26
2. McCain: 24
3. Romney: 18

1. Clinton: 45
2. Obama: 40
3, Edwards: 10

I'm looking for "upsets" then, in both Democrat contests, inasmuch as I'm suggesting neither of the current poll-toppers will win the race they're supposed to.  I'm taking a cue from what happened in New Hampshire (normal, secret ballot voting which, per the Lemon effect, helped Hillary relative to the polling data) and Iowa (a public, open-outcry caucus, which per the anti-Lemon effect, helped Obama relative to the polling).  When the smoke clears, we'll hear a lot more grumbling about election fraud, the idiocy of pollsters, and some awkward fumbling for the hidden political truths about how each candidate managed to poach their victories.  But if one or both of these races does pan out this way (particularly if Hillary pulls off a convincing South Carolina win), an honest observer would have to acknowledge the unpalatable possibility that Senator Obama's true support will always be overstated by polling data (and open-outcry cauci).

I'll update the GOP scoreboard as soon as we have solid returns data.  With 34 delegates up for grabs in Nevada and 24 in South Carolina, Romney's lead over the rest of the field will likely widen by the end of the day, even if he takes 6th in South Carolina.

Update:   Huh.  That was quick.  As of 1 pm Eastern, Fox News and MSNBC are both projecting Romney has won the Nevada caucus.  I wonder if this very early news might translate into a small South Carolina bump.

I'll wait until we have some delegate insights and the South Carolina results before updating the board, but it's worth noting that Romney has now won a majority of the state contests to date.  Allah notes these results were supposed to come in at around 3:30, which suggests a Romney landslide.  If that's the case, he might be leaving Las Vegas with 30 or more fresh delegates, which could make him impervious to winner-take-all Florida, in terms of delegate count.

Update:  Very early returns (<1%) give Romney 46%.  Huckabee's back at a distant 5th, behind McCain, Paul, and Thompson.

Update:  This is interesting.  According to Nevada entrance polls, fully one quarter of caucus-goers classified themselves as Mormon (compared with just 9% statewide, per MormonWiki) and 94% of them planned to vote for Romney.

Update:  Meanwhile, the aspiring First Man is helping Hillary line up her excuses this afternoon by seeding a voter supression story in Nevada.

Update:  Thinking back to Michigan, it's worth remembering that Romney unexpectedly outperformed Huckabee among evangelicals.  I wonder if Huckabee's surprisingly poor performance this afternoon and Mitt's outperformance suggest Mitt's having some success at poaching vote share from Huckabee nationally.  Per the entrance poll, 19% of today's caucus-goers were evangelicals, and once again, they've opted for Mitt (32-24 over Huckabee).

Update:  With 35% in, it looks like they're about to call it for Clinton.  She currently leads Obama 50-45.

Update:  Indeed, Hillary wins Nevada with 51%.  And yet it looks like Obama won more delegates - 13 to Hillary's 12.

With 98% in, Mitt's Nevada take came in at 52%, giving him a 39-point margin over runner-up Ron Paul.  Yes, Ron Paul.

---

Meanwhile, in South Carolina, early results are starting to trickle in.  With <1% reporting, it's McCain over Huckabee 33-28.  Romney's pulling third with 19%, 7 points ahead of Thompson.

With apologies to the Fredheads out there, isn't it about time to pull the plug on this thing?

Update:  With 22% reporting, McCain's extended his lead to 8 points.  Seems safe to say he's going to take it, but they're still saying too close too call.  Brit Hume claims the number crunchers see the race as "dead even" based on their precinct-by-precinct analysis.

Further down the card, Thompson (who's already made his good night speech) has slipped in front of Romney for third, though the gap is just a few hundred votes.

Update:  72% reporting now, but still no call.  McCain leads Huck 34-29.  Thompson leads Romney 16-15.

Update:  Finally, at 9:19 pm, with 82% reporting, McCain is called the winner.