Call Him Mr. 270: McCain Within Striking Distance In NY
Just 14 months ago, Hillary Clinton won her Senate re-election by a soul-crushing margin of 36 points, winning more than two thirds of all votes cast. Now, it appears she might have trouble carrying the state in a general election against the gentlemaverick from Arizona, who trails her by a scant 7 points in a recent poll.
Al Gore won the state by 25 points in 2000 and even John Kerry managed a margin of 19 points. Clinton's comparative weakness may have something to do with the fact that her negative ratings in "her own" state have jumped from 35 a month ago to 43 now, in the wake of recent ugliness on the campaign trail.
But Clinton's blossoming unpopularity doesn't seem to fully account for New York's sudden purplization. Obama holds a similarly thin margin over McCain in a hypothetical match-up.
Likely GOP presidential nominee John McCain is within single-digit striking distance of Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama in heavily Democratic New York state, and leads both in the suburbs and upstate, according to a new poll released yesterday.
The Siena College Survey found Clinton and Obama just 7 points ahead of McCain - 49 to 42 percent and 47 to 40 percent, respectively - largely because of overwhelming support from heavily Democratic New York City voters.
Clinton led McCain among city voters, 66 to 28 percent, while Obama was ahead, 62 to 27 percent.
But in the suburbs, McCain led Clinton, 53 to 38 percent, and Obama, 55 to 32 percent. McCain was ahead of the New York senator upstate, 49 to 41 percent, and the Illinois senator by a mere, 42 to 41 percent.
Rudy's relatively early endorsement may have carried some weight with swayable city-dwellers, but those suburban and upstate figures are astounding.
This is just one poll, of course, but if the Empire State and its 31 electoral votes do wind up in play, the Election Day math changes dramatically. The Democratic nominee would have to hold Pennsylvania and Michigan (very narrowly won by Kerry in 2004) and poach both Ohio and Florida to offset losing New York. No combination of 3 of those 4 states would do it.
And if all four of those swing states do vote for the Democrat, the net elector shift would be 16, leaving McCain with exactly 270 (286 - 16) electoral votes, the magic number needed to win the Presidency.
Handcrafted by Flip on February 19, 2008 |
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