Suitably Flip

Super Tuesday II - Wishing With Fire

What a strange confluence of circumstances that leaves me rooting for Hillary to dream the impossible dream and pull out a pair of wins tonight in Ohio and Texas.  I don't doubt she'll find a way to justify staying in the race if she loses one or the other (more likely Texas, where she'll almost certainly lose the delegate match, if not the popular vote), but I've gradually and somewhat disturbingly begun to indulge those illicit hopes that Clinton pulls off enough of an upset to get back in the race.

I've been insisting for a while that Obama is now officially unbeatable for the nomination, and I think that holds even if Hillary does manage a campaign reignition via a blowout performance tonight.  I suspect we're simply too far down the road for her to sway enough of those few remaining Democrats in future primary states who genuinely have yet to make up their minds.  At least I hope that's the case...  Because if Clinton were to parlay an upset tonight into an honest-to-goodness comeback that ultimately landed her in the winner's circle, I'd have a hard time ever forgiving myself for the forbidden, hopeful vibes I'm sending her way tonight.

The polling wisdom at this point is that Clinton is more beatable in the general election than Obama.  I'm not convinced that's actually true (Obama's unprecedented lack of qualifications seems finally to be taking feeble root in the public consciousness).  But even if Clinton is the more easily defeated nominee, having her at the top of the Democratic ticket in November is just too close to the nightmare scenario.  So long as she truly is incurably the dead candidate stumping that I think she is, then a feckless, but boisterous resurgence after tonight is a safe and wonderful development for McCain supporters.

Still, rooting for Hillary feels a little like the way I imagine Jonas Salk felt about injecting kids with inactivated Polio germs.

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Update:  Check in with CNN for real time election results from Ohio and Texas.

Exit polls are available for Ohio, suggesting a close race with Clinton edging out Obama 51% to 48% (roughly in line with the most recent polling).

One interesting tidbit is how distantly Iraq and health care (19% each) trail the economy (58%) as the key issue for Ohio voters.  The economy is clearly more of a more pressing issue in Ohio than nationally, but it's still pretty remarkable.

Update:  At Hot Air, Allah and Ed are covering the action with a terribly slick new liveblogging tool.

Update:  Time of first legal challenge... 7:45 pm.  Congratulations to all you office pool winners.  Fox News is reporting that Obama has gone to court to ask a judge to keep the polls open extra-late in Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland.  I'm not sure the Obama campaign is looking closely at the exit polls.  Northeast Ohio is the only region of the state where Hillary is winning (by a huge margin too, 61-39). 

Update:  Obama is also requesting that polls stay open late in Franklin County, which includes Columbus.

Update:  Obama succeeds in throwing Clinton into a possible briar patch.  A Cuyhagoga County judge has ordered 15 precincts to stay open until 9:00.

Update:  Bob Beckel says Obama is doing much better in Cuyahoga County than elsewhere in northeastern Ohio (though I don't see any county-specific exit polling to confirm that), so maybe his courthouse vote grubbing will serve him well after all.

Update:  With 1% of precincts reporting, Obama's enjoying a 58-41 leads over Clinton in Texas.  Including early voters, though, nearly 800,000 votes have been counted and the partial returns include counties scattered throughout the state, so this looks like a fairly reliable win for Obama in Texas.  Add to that his outperformance in large cities that will be disproportionately represented in the delegate count, due to Texas-specific rules, and the Lone Star state might extend Obama's delegate lead by 60 or more.  Clinton would have to win Ohio with more than 70% of the vote to offset that damage.

Update:  Via Allah, Huckabee will concede.  How noble of him to step aside.  It appears, then, that notwithstanding Huck's endless lingering, he'll come up just shy of surpassing Romney as runner-up
in the delegate count, unless he manages to win Rhode Island tonight (which he won't).

Update:  With Texas called for McCain, the presumptive nominee has become the semi-official nominee.  His delegate estimate now totals 1,195, 4 above the 1,191 required.

Update:  Huck has just finished his concession speech.

Update:  Hillary wins Rhode Island, nabbing just a few net delegates, but snapping Obama's 11-contest winning streak.  She's gradually closing Obama's early vote lead in Texas too, and seems to be on a trajectory to pull even by the time the rest of the primary votes are counted.  Again though, a popular vote tie strongly favors Obama in the delegate count, as does the separate primary caucus, yet to be reported.  I'm pulling for her, I just don't think she's going be able to pull it off.

Update:  Still no results from Cuyahoga County, but Hillary's lead in Ohio has expanded to 20 (with 21% reporting), making a win there look increasingly likely.

Update:  Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) results finally coming in.  Hillary leads 51-48.  Statewide, she still leads by 16 points, with 35% reporting.  Time to call that one.

Update:  Hillary's now within a couple thousand votes (out of more than 1.4 million) in Texas.  She just might pull off the popular vote victory (though still unlikely she could win the lion's share of the delegates, given the allocation scheme and the impact of the cauci), which would be delightful.

Update:  Ohio finally called for Hillary.  Whatever else happens, it's a good night.

Update:  Hillary has also pulled into the lead in Texas (repeat above caveats...).

Update:  Let's play delegate math.  Obama went into tonight with a 109 delegate lead.  He should get a net 5 or 6 delegates out of Vermont, while Hillary should pick up a net 3 or 4 out of Rhode Island.  If the Ohio vote share holds at 57-41 in Clinton's favor, she'll pick up roughly 23 more than Obama.  Among those three states, then, she should narrow the 109 gap by around 21, leaving Obama with a lead of roughly 88, not including Texas.

Hillary currently leads 50-49 in the Texas primary - almost certainly not enough to equal Obama in the primary-connected delegates, but let's assume she expands that lead enough to reach delegate party in the primary (giving each candidate 63).  There are 67 delegates tied to the caucuses, meaning Obama would need to win just under 2/3 of the caucus votes to offset Hillary's net pickups in the other states.

If the funky Texas primary allocation scheme has the effect of granting a bonus of, say, 10% of the primary-connected delegates to Obama, he'd need to win just 57% of the caucus votes.  Based on his previous caucus performance, that seems like a low bar.

And that's not the required threshold for Obama win Texas - it's the threshold for him to win by more than 21, thus more than offsetting Hillary's wins elswhere, expanding his delegate lead, and increasing the percentage of remaining national votes Hillary has to win to capture the nomination.

Yes, yes, momentum and all that.  But based on the percent of remaining votes required, Hillary's mathematical hurdle will almost certainly be higher tomorrow morning that it was today (read: even more unreachable).

And yet her campaign is clearly "reignited" and right this minute, she's giving an exuberant speech that suggests she's quickly abandoning any tentative thoughts she may have had about throwing in the towel.

Less of a chance that Hillary wins AND less of a chance of her withdrawing?

I think we call this the best of both worlds.

Update:  The networks are now calling Texas for Hillary (repeat above caveats).  Her lead in the primary popular vote is about 4 points, good for about 5 net delegates, before the bonus shifting toward Obama.  With 5% of caucuses reporting, Obama leads by 12 points, which (if that margin holds and the delegate split goes proportionally) would be good for about 8 net delegates, for a net-net Texas delegate gain of 3 for Obama.

Meanwhile, Hillary's lead in Ohio has pulled back to 12 points - her estimate net delegate gain there is now roughly 17.  Between Rhode Island and Vermont, Hillary picked up another single net delegate.

That's a net-net-net delegate gain of 15 for Clinton, before the Texas warping, bringing her within 94 of Obama.  The gap of 94 is smaller than the 109 delegate lead Obama had a day ago, of course, but as noted above, Clinton's hurdle has actually risen.  In this scenario, she needs 596 of the remaining 1,097 delegates up for grabs (54.3%).  Before Super Tuesday II, she needed 755 of the remaining 1,400 (53.9%).

And since (with rare exceptions like today in Texas) Democratic delegates are allocated proportionally, she would need to outscore Obama by that margin (better than 54-46) in the aggregate popular vote in the remaining 11 contests.

Remember, that's assuming zero bonus delegates going Obama's way in Texas.  Whatever the size of that bonus, it will serve to further elevate Clinton's 54.3% burden.

To date, Hillary trails Obama in the aggregate popular vote 52-48 (51-49 including Florida), so capturing 54.3%+ from here on out would likely take a fair bit more than the momentum she'll take away from Texas and Ohio.

Comments

Super Tuesday II - Wishing With Fire

What a strange confluence of circumstances that leaves me rooting for Hillary to dream the impossible dream and pull out a pair of wins tonight in Ohio and Texas.  I don't doubt she'll find a way to justify staying in the race if she loses one or the other (more likely Texas, where she'll almost certainly lose the delegate match, if not the popular vote), but I've gradually and somewhat disturbingly begun to indulge those illicit hopes that Clinton pulls off enough of an upset to get back in the race.

I've been insisting for a while that Obama is now officially unbeatable for the nomination, and I think that holds even if Hillary does manage a campaign reignition via a blowout performance tonight.  I suspect we're simply too far down the road for her to sway enough of those few remaining Democrats in future primary states who genuinely have yet to make up their minds.  At least I hope that's the case...  Because if Clinton were to parlay an upset tonight into an honest-to-goodness comeback that ultimately landed her in the winner's circle, I'd have a hard time ever forgiving myself for the forbidden, hopeful vibes I'm sending her way tonight.

The polling wisdom at this point is that Clinton is more beatable in the general election than Obama.  I'm not convinced that's actually true (Obama's unprecedented lack of qualifications seems finally to be taking feeble root in the public consciousness).  But even if Clinton is the more easily defeated nominee, having her at the top of the Democratic ticket in November is just too close to the nightmare scenario.  So long as she truly is incurably the dead candidate stumping that I think she is, then a feckless, but boisterous resurgence after tonight is a safe and wonderful development for McCain supporters.

Still, rooting for Hillary feels a little like the way I imagine Jonas Salk felt about injecting kids with inactivated Polio germs.

---

Update:  Check in with CNN for real time election results from Ohio and Texas.

Exit polls are available for Ohio, suggesting a close race with Clinton edging out Obama 51% to 48% (roughly in line with the most recent polling).

One interesting tidbit is how distantly Iraq and health care (19% each) trail the economy (58%) as the key issue for Ohio voters.  The economy is clearly more of a more pressing issue in Ohio than nationally, but it's still pretty remarkable.

Update:  At Hot Air, Allah and Ed are covering the action with a terribly slick new liveblogging tool.

Update:  Time of first legal challenge... 7:45 pm.  Congratulations to all you office pool winners.  Fox News is reporting that Obama has gone to court to ask a judge to keep the polls open extra-late in Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland.  I'm not sure the Obama campaign is looking closely at the exit polls.  Northeast Ohio is the only region of the state where Hillary is winning (by a huge margin too, 61-39). 

Update:  Obama is also requesting that polls stay open late in Franklin County, which includes Columbus.

Update:  Obama succeeds in throwing Clinton into a possible briar patch.  A Cuyhagoga County judge has ordered 15 precincts to stay open until 9:00.

Update:  Bob Beckel says Obama is doing much better in Cuyahoga County than elsewhere in northeastern Ohio (though I don't see any county-specific exit polling to confirm that), so maybe his courthouse vote grubbing will serve him well after all.

Update:  With 1% of precincts reporting, Obama's enjoying a 58-41 leads over Clinton in Texas.  Including early voters, though, nearly 800,000 votes have been counted and the partial returns include counties scattered throughout the state, so this looks like a fairly reliable win for Obama in Texas.  Add to that his outperformance in large cities that will be disproportionately represented in the delegate count, due to Texas-specific rules, and the Lone Star state might extend Obama's delegate lead by 60 or more.  Clinton would have to win Ohio with more than 70% of the vote to offset that damage.

Update:  Via Allah, Huckabee will concede.  How noble of him to step aside.  It appears, then, that notwithstanding Huck's endless lingering, he'll come up just shy of surpassing Romney as runner-up
in the delegate count, unless he manages to win Rhode Island tonight (which he won't).

Update:  With Texas called for McCain, the presumptive nominee has become the semi-official nominee.  His delegate estimate now totals 1,195, 4 above the 1,191 required.

Update:  Huck has just finished his concession speech.

Update:  Hillary wins Rhode Island, nabbing just a few net delegates, but snapping Obama's 11-contest winning streak.  She's gradually closing Obama's early vote lead in Texas too, and seems to be on a trajectory to pull even by the time the rest of the primary votes are counted.  Again though, a popular vote tie strongly favors Obama in the delegate count, as does the separate primary caucus, yet to be reported.  I'm pulling for her, I just don't think she's going be able to pull it off.

Update:  Still no results from Cuyahoga County, but Hillary's lead in Ohio has expanded to 20 (with 21% reporting), making a win there look increasingly likely.

Update:  Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) results finally coming in.  Hillary leads 51-48.  Statewide, she still leads by 16 points, with 35% reporting.  Time to call that one.

Update:  Hillary's now within a couple thousand votes (out of more than 1.4 million) in Texas.  She just might pull off the popular vote victory (though still unlikely she could win the lion's share of the delegates, given the allocation scheme and the impact of the cauci), which would be delightful.

Update:  Ohio finally called for Hillary.  Whatever else happens, it's a good night.

Update:  Hillary has also pulled into the lead in Texas (repeat above caveats...).

Update:  Let's play delegate math.  Obama went into tonight with a 109 delegate lead.  He should get a net 5 or 6 delegates out of Vermont, while Hillary should pick up a net 3 or 4 out of Rhode Island.  If the Ohio vote share holds at 57-41 in Clinton's favor, she'll pick up roughly 23 more than Obama.  Among those three states, then, she should narrow the 109 gap by around 21, leaving Obama with a lead of roughly 88, not including Texas.

Hillary currently leads 50-49 in the Texas primary - almost certainly not enough to equal Obama in the primary-connected delegates, but let's assume she expands that lead enough to reach delegate party in the primary (giving each candidate 63).  There are 67 delegates tied to the caucuses, meaning Obama would need to win just under 2/3 of the caucus votes to offset Hillary's net pickups in the other states.

If the funky Texas primary allocation scheme has the effect of granting a bonus of, say, 10% of the primary-connected delegates to Obama, he'd need to win just 57% of the caucus votes.  Based on his previous caucus performance, that seems like a low bar.

And that's not the required threshold for Obama win Texas - it's the threshold for him to win by more than 21, thus more than offsetting Hillary's wins elswhere, expanding his delegate lead, and increasing the percentage of remaining national votes Hillary has to win to capture the nomination.

Yes, yes, momentum and all that.  But based on the percent of remaining votes required, Hillary's mathematical hurdle will almost certainly be higher tomorrow morning that it was today (read: even more unreachable).

And yet her campaign is clearly "reignited" and right this minute, she's giving an exuberant speech that suggests she's quickly abandoning any tentative thoughts she may have had about throwing in the towel.

Less of a chance that Hillary wins AND less of a chance of her withdrawing?

I think we call this the best of both worlds.

Update:  The networks are now calling Texas for Hillary (repeat above caveats).  Her lead in the primary popular vote is about 4 points, good for about 5 net delegates, before the bonus shifting toward Obama.  With 5% of caucuses reporting, Obama leads by 12 points, which (if that margin holds and the delegate split goes proportionally) would be good for about 8 net delegates, for a net-net Texas delegate gain of 3 for Obama.

Meanwhile, Hillary's lead in Ohio has pulled back to 12 points - her estimate net delegate gain there is now roughly 17.  Between Rhode Island and Vermont, Hillary picked up another single net delegate.

That's a net-net-net delegate gain of 15 for Clinton, before the Texas warping, bringing her within 94 of Obama.  The gap of 94 is smaller than the 109 delegate lead Obama had a day ago, of course, but as noted above, Clinton's hurdle has actually risen.  In this scenario, she needs 596 of the remaining 1,097 delegates up for grabs (54.3%).  Before Super Tuesday II, she needed 755 of the remaining 1,400 (53.9%).

And since (with rare exceptions like today in Texas) Democratic delegates are allocated proportionally, she would need to outscore Obama by that margin (better than 54-46) in the aggregate popular vote in the remaining 11 contests.

Remember, that's assuming zero bonus delegates going Obama's way in Texas.  Whatever the size of that bonus, it will serve to further elevate Clinton's 54.3% burden.

To date, Hillary trails Obama in the aggregate popular vote 52-48 (51-49 including Florida), so capturing 54.3%+ from here on out would likely take a fair bit more than the momentum she'll take away from Texas and Ohio.