Clinton's Dewey Moment? [Update: No]

As of midnight, the Indiana Democratic primary was still in doubt, with Obama having gradually closed Cinton's early lead.  The holdout is Lake County, where only 28% of precincts have reported.  Earlier in the evening, when Hillary's lead was a little healthier, she got on stage to back in her triumph with a very satisfied victory speech.

Of the Lake County votes tallied so far, Obama is winning 75-25.  He still has to make up another 20,000 votes to overtake Clinton, but if that ratio were to hold, he'd gain more than twice as many, winning 51-49.  Reportedly, the votes that have come in are from the Gary area, a predominantly black population.  So the 75-25 spread won't likely hold, but county-wide, he only needs 60% or so to poach the state, so he's got some room to fall back a bit in the rest of the county.

If Obama manages to pull it off, Clinton's Indiana victory speech will be an instant classic (particularly as it nearly assures the superdelegates will find their tipping point and shortly hand Obama the nomination).  The significance of that prospective event begs the obvious photoshop, so here it is, just in case.

And if Obama doesn't manage to close the gap, my photoshop will still feel good about itself in an ironic way, for lampooning something that didn't actually come true.

You can watch Clinton's smugly celebratory address below.  In fairness to Hillary, Obama had effectively conceded Indiana to Clinton in his North Carolina victory speech earlier in the evening, so he would've been the first to call it wrong.  But it strikes me as easier to live down a win you'd previously written off than a loss you'd prematurely celebrated.

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Update: With 58% of the Lake County vote counted, Obama still leads the county 65-35.

Update: The Clinton campaign has doubled down, sending out this e-mail to supporters:

Tonight's victory in Indiana was close, and a margin that narrow means just one thing: every single thing you did to help us win in Indiana helped make the difference.

Every call you made, every friend you spoke to about our campaign, every dollar you contributed made tonight's victory possible. And I couldn't be more thankful for your hard work.

Every time we've celebrated a victory, we've celebrated it together. And tonight is no exception. This victory is your victory, this campaign is your campaign, and your support has been the difference between winning and losing.

Thank you so much for making this campaign possible. Let's keep making history together.

Sincerely,

Hillary Rodham Clinton

Update: With 98% of Lake County in the books, Obama's lead has shrunk to 55-45.  Not enough, even if he wins 100% of the remaining votes.

Update: Fox News calls it for Clinton.