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CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Thursday, Week 1
[Scroll to the bottom for answers to today's Bonus Bucks trivia questions.]
Good news, bad news today. I don't know about you, but I managed to move all 5 of my portfolios close to zero yesterday. The down ones improved and the up ones pulled back. The resulting numbers are wholly unbefitting the reckless, volatilitophiliac strategy I've been employing.
Anyway, for what it's worth, my best and worst are up 5.8% and down 4.6%, respectively, which translates to a ranking range of 5,148 (top 0.9%) to 542,249 (top 99.5%).
The leaderboard ranks, meanwhile, continue to show big numbers, with top-ranked Mark Williams putting up more than 21% (including bonuses) over the two days of performance currently reflected in portfolio values. Mark, if you (or anyone on the leaderboard) happen by here and want to let us know what your picks were this week, we're eager to hear. [See update below]
As for those World Series tickets on the line for this week's high scorer, I'd keep an eye on Peter LoBrutto. With a 17.5% week-to-date return, he's well behind Williams, but 4 or more of LoBrutto's portfolios share the identical performance, so he has the luxury of spreading his chips across several different bets going into the final reallocation of the week.
Meanwhile, in currency trading, I'm pleased to report I'm doing remarkably well and continue to maintain my tied-for-first-place standing.
I'm going to dispense with today's slate of eligible earnings reporters, seeing as yesterday's crop turned out somewhat abysmally (Agilent is a notable exception, with shares up nearly 7% today), but I'll deposit them in the comments in case you're looking for high volatility plays to make today.
(Consider all of the above to be for entertainment purposes and not meant to be used as real-world investment recommendations. The goals and strategies of the Portfolio Challenge are not to be confused with those of sensible investing.)
See all related posts in the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive.
Update: From the comments, #2 on the leaderboard Thiru Chandrahasan stopped by and was kind enough to share his picks, which were Bally Technologies (BYI), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), DTS Inc. (DTSI), and EnergySolutions (ES).
That was good enough for a 21% jump, through yesterday's close (though possibly softening today, depending on whether Thiru has since adjusted the holdings). Good luck during the rest of the week. If you manage to bump Williams from the top spot, be sure to wave to us from the World Series.
Thursday, May 15th
Throughout the contest, each day's answers will be at the top of the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive as soon as the questions are published, so bookmark accordingly.
Daily Trivia:
Squawk Box: "On May 14, Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian warned that the Fed is:"
Answer: Particularly challenged
Squawk On the Street: "Jeffries' managing director Paul Fremont loves dirty coal. On May 6, he recommended which energy stock?"
Answer: Allegheny Energy
The Call: "What did Jim Cramer call "the Tony Soprano stock"?"
Answer: Waste Management - No, it wasn't Emperors' Club VIP)
Power Lunch: "Web video hunt: Strategist James Altucher spoke on the May 14 Street Insider segment. What color was his tie?"
Answer: No tie - Sneaky... they seem to be trying to move away from questions that are answerable with a simple keyword search; now you actually need to find and watch specific videos. (Or you can just return here.)
Street Signs: "On May 6, Fast Money asked "Is The Housing Crisis Over?" Guy Adami said the best trade was:"
Answer: Home Depot
Closing Bell: "In the slideshow, "Highest Paid CEOs," which big boss has the No. 1 paycheck?"
Answer: John Thain
Handcrafted by Flip on May 15, 2008 |
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Comments
Currency is still not available so how can you be tied for first place standing?Posted by: Andrew | May 15, 2008 9:52:15 AM
Everyone is tied for 1st place in currency standings.. We all have $100k in currency ports because they're unavailable..Posted by: Random | May 15, 2008 10:04:48 AM
It's a 550,000-way tie at $100,000.Posted by: Flip | May 15, 2008 10:08:10 AM
Any clue when currency trading will return? As it is, nothing to do until shortly before market close.Posted by: Mel | May 15, 2008 10:24:47 AM
Since it still hasn't come back online, my best guess is that they'll evenentually scrap it (and possibly credit everyone's stock portfolio with $100,000).Posted by: Flip | May 15, 2008 10:26:59 AM
I wonder how many stocks the top people actually have in their portfolio. Just 4 max or a little more than that? I wonder what their strategy for picking what they did is as well. Find something that got great potential but volatile, or what.Posted by: Steven | May 15, 2008 10:30:56 AM
Anybody got any good earnings predictions for tonight... I got burned with a couple of portfolios with CTRP & EJ but I still got a 28k daily performance going with my 2nd best portfolio (1,069,000 as of yesterday - #3266) So whats everybody picking for tomorrow?Posted by: Khaled | May 15, 2008 11:42:13 AM
Khaled, I'm still reeling from yesterday/this morning's earnings reporters, but today it looks like there are at least 7 eligible stocks: (CPWR Compuware HPQ Hewlett-Packard MNT Mentor WNS WNS Holdings ANF Abercrombie & Fitch ADSK Autodesk, Inc. KSS Kohls Corporation) Most of those are well-followed large caps, so likely not as much opportunity for big one-day swings. Of the two smaller companies (MNT and WNS), Mentor might warrant a closer look. The consensus estimate is looking for EPS decline of -23%, but the range is very large (the high-side estimate sees roughly flat EPS). Shares are down 40% from their 52-week high.The company makes (among other things) breast implants. Their results should actually be an interesting bellwether for the current environment. Do consumers of plastic surgery rein in their spending more or less than average consumers during an economic slowdown?
Posted by: Flip | May 15, 2008 12:13:09 PM
On the plastic surgery front I don't expect much of an economic indicator.. A lot of plastic surgery addicts tend to be fairly 'well to do' so I can't see them giving up their cosmetic manipulation practices just because food/energy costs have jumped.. Though of course, I could be wrong..Posted by: Random | May 15, 2008 1:03:36 PM
Random - that's sort of what I was driving at, though I probably phrased it poorly. The market may be underpricing this name, assuming it's being penalized for the slowdown, despite the fact that these consumers (a specific subset of luxury buyers) may be less sensitive to economic fluctuations.Posted by: Flip | May 15, 2008 1:10:45 PM
A couple other eligible stocks CLNE, AAP, UTSI, and GA. Not sure what i'm doing for my portfolios but those are some options...Posted by: Khaled | May 15, 2008 1:55:00 PM
BTW - just to offer my .02 on the breast implant debate.. I wouldnt be surprised if they had stellar earnings. I agree that the high-end market isnt going to be suffering much from a slowing economy BUT I think that on the reconstructive side they may have a good quarter. I have a feeling there are a lot more reconstructive surgeries happening due to rising cases of breast cancer - a lot of baby-boomers are hitting that age. We'll see!Posted by: Khaled | May 15, 2008 1:59:18 PM
I am #2 on the leaderboard. I picked BYI CSIQ DTSI ES on monday.Posted by: Thiru | May 15, 2008 2:49:42 PM
Ahh.. Got ya, Flip.. Thought perhaps you were making the opposite case.. I actually don't expect much one way or the other, a bit of pop for beating the earnings perhaps, but I think they'll give most of it right back before the day ends negating the trade for this particular competition.. Guess we'll see what happens though..Posted by: Random | May 15, 2008 3:00:11 PM
I got burn with wholefoods yesterday. Today again with welmart and GE. So far I only been using 2 portfolios. I will start using the other 3 tomorrow.Posted by: KushMoney | May 15, 2008 3:18:17 PM
My Big winner was POT and looking at ICE for tommorrowPosted by: rain | May 15, 2008 3:32:59 PM
I am in top 2.2%. One of the issues I have is, I have this cash lying around from the trivia wins and some sell offs, but I can't use it buy anything. I see under Manage my stocks: Stocks, Intraday: % of Portfolio as of 5/15/08 at 4pm EST: 96% Target Allocation: 96% Cash, Intraday: % of Portfolio as of 5/15/08 at 4pm EST: 4% Target Allocation: 0% As soon as I add a symbol and try to make give it 4%, it starts reporting error. Do I have to redo the whole portfolio everytime I have cash lying around ?Posted by: Abhishek | May 16, 2008 8:31:57 AM
