CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Friday, Week 2

[Scroll to the bottom for answers to today's Bonus Bucks trivia questions.]

Crummy day out there, huh?  Slightly better-than-expected home sales data seems unable to jazz anyone to the point of shaking off the oil specter.  Plus, I gave you what turned out to be a couple of lemons with yesterday's extra special volatility picks.  But hey, at least they were volatile...

The good news, of course, is that today effectively begins Week 3 in the contest (since the first holdings to be scored in the upcoming week will be the positions you establish today by 4 pm).  And since it'll be a 4-day week, today's trades are that much more important.

The even better news, according to our super-scientific internal polling, is that the Week 3 prize is the one you'd be most willing to accept (and pay the tax bill on).

Sony Style HD Home Entertainment Makeover

Bring High Definition and the ultimate in theatre technology into your home. This Sony Style HD Home Entertainment Package includes: a flat panel 52” LCD with Full HD 1080p, high-resolution video and surround sound with depth and clarity. You also get the most from the Blu-ray disc player which is enhanced by the advanced audio performance of the Sony Style home theater system with BRAVIA® Theatre Sync™ technology*. Products come with a 3 year extended service plan and white glove delivery.

With an approximate retail value of $5,000, it's still going to be a supplemental punch in the teeth from Uncle Sam, but of all the weekly prizes, the Sony setup handily won highest worth-the-tax-bill honors.

So let's revisit a couple strategy points in anticipation.  As discussed, this year's rules make the contest much less of a daily moon-shooting exercise than last year.  Multiple accounts are prohibited (beyond your allotted 5), allocations are capped at 25%, and there's no weekly at-large bid for the final round.  Still, with nearly 700,000 active portfolios, the 6 highest scores over the 10 weeks (not to mention the highest score each week) will show superlative returns.  Returns high enough that a cool-headed, steady run of smart and lucky bets over those 10 weeks will likely give you an impressive - but ultimately worthless - aggregate performance by comparison.  Because out of those hundreds of thousands, several are bound to stumble into a series of huge gainers that can't be matched with cool-headed, steady, smart and lucky moves.  If even 1 in 100,000 portfolios stumbles into such herculean returns (say it's 300% in aggregate), then your very impressive 180% return will be every bit as useful as a -100% return.

So despite the rules changes, the game does remain a home run contest.  Even if you're batting 1,000, if you never get it over the wall, you may as well be armless.  That's why I've been advocating strategies like the daily all-ins with earnings reporters in the equity portfolios and the "thrashing monkey" approach to currency trading.  It doesn't mean it'll always work out - just as swinging away doesn't guarantee you a home run.  But it does put you in a position where you have an opportunity to win, if your daily theses are right more often than their wrong.

Anyway, that's the extent of my strategy jawing, with the following two caveats thrown in for good measure.  1) If you do stumble into a herculean return (e.g. one of your portfolios sees in quick succession a takeover announcement with a huge premium, a nicely levered currency position that suddenly shoots off, a left-for-dead stock that unexpectedly avoids bankruptcy, etc.), it may make sense to wall that portfolio off from the others and stop being so idiotically risk-seeking with it.  2)  I could be completely wrong about everything.  Early next week, once the leaderboard is a couple weeks seasoned, we'll be able to make somewhat better predictions about what kind of aggregate gains the overall winner will put up by the end of the contest.  That, in turn, should give us a better feel on just how risk-seeking we should be.

But for the time being, swing away.

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As far as I can tell, we've got just 4 eligible stocks reporting earnings between today's close and Tuesday's open.

Company	Symbol
Modine Manufacturing	MOD
Vodafone Group	VOD
Bank Of Montreal	BMO
Bank of Nova Scotia	BNS

Since you need at least 4 names to fully change out any of your portfolios, you may also want to browse the gutter for any rebound candidates among today's double-digit losers (US Airways, perhaps?).

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See all related posts in the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive:

• Week 2: Thursday
• A New Fly In the Ointment
• Week 2: Wednesday
• Currency Trading Resumes
• Week 2: Tuesday
• Week 2: Monday
• More Technical Difficulties
• Prize Poll
• Week 1: Friday
• Week 1: Thursday
• The Airing Of Grievances
• Week 1: Wednesday
• Week 1: Tuesday
• Technical Difficulties, Orders Cancelled
• Week 1: Monday
• Week 0

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Friday May 23rd

Throughout the contest, each day's answers will be at the top of the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive as soon as the questions are published, so bookmark accordingly.

Daily Trivia:

Squawk Box:  "Fast Money talked oil plays in the article, "At $133 Who Wins?"  What was Guy Adami's trade?"

  Answer:  Get long oil services

Squawk On the Street:  "Market Insider: How did Birinyi's Jeff Rubin rate Boone Pickens' forecasting?"

  Answer:  Insight most investors lack

The Call:  "According to "SUVs And What They're Worth," first-quarter new SUV sales:"

  Answer:  Plunged 23%

Power Lunch: "CNBC Stock Blog: In "Restaurant Stocks: Feast and Famine" which firm was praised for sales "actually doing the best"?"

  Answer:  Red Robin Gourmet Burgers

Street Signs:  "The Best Premium Liquor Brands slideshow praises Moet & Hennessey's 10 Cane rum. What gives it its essence?"

  Answer:  Trinidadian sugar cane

Closing Bell:  "On May 21, why did Jim Cramer suggest buying Freeport McMoRan?"

  Answer:  Chinese demand