Suitably Flip

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Wednesday, Week 5

[Scroll down for answers to today's Bonus Bucks trivia questions.]

Watch this space for today's crowdsourcing experiment picks and contest updates.

Out of the gate, it looks like yesterday's Group 7 (the Saturday babies) is positioned to have the best day, but with all groups heavy into oil stocks or airlines, things could change dramatically by the end of the session, depending where oil prices go after today's crude inventories report.

Update: Crude underwent a steeper-than-expected drawdown last week, so the oil-heavy groups ought to improve somewhat (Groups 3, 5, and 7 - the Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday birthdays).  Still, it may not be enough to make up for another crummy round of earnings reports (QSII and KFY are both trading lower, despite reporting basically in line with expectations).  There's not much second-guessing we can do, either, since this lonely week has only 2 or 3 contest-eligible earnings reporters each day.  Even so, our top group is sporting a week-to-date gain of roughly 7.5%, including bonus bucks through today.

Today, however, is a little different.  We've got no fewer than five eligible earners to play with, in addition to our oil/airline see-saw.

• 99 CENTS Only (NDN)
• Casey's General Stores (CASY)
• China Medical Tech (CMED)
• School Specialty (SCHS)
• ENERSYS (ENS)

And for any surviving portfolios participating in the weekly winner experiment, let's separate into the following four groups, with the following four allocations, according to the first letter of your last name:

1. A-F: NDN, CASY, LCC, CAL
2. G-L: NDN, CASY, KWK, GDP
3. M-S: ENS, KWK, GDP, CHK
4. T-Z: LCC, CAL, AMR, UAUA

Important: As with yesterday, if you're using more than one portfolio for this project, allocate the first portfolio according to the last name scheme, the next portfolio to the allocation directly beneath it, and so on, until you've reallocated all involved portfolios.

For example: If your last name is Uumellmahaye, and you're using 3 portfolios, your allocations would be:

• T-Z: LCC, CAL, AMR, UAUA 
• A-F: NDN, CASY, LCC, CAL
• G-L: NDN, CASY, KWK, GDP

Quick postscript:  Just to clear up any confusion, you shouldn't be using the above allocations in any portfolios you're attempting to carry into one of the top 6 overall spots at the end of the game.  On Friday, we launched this experiment as an attempt to grab the weekly top spot for one of the participants, the strategy for which involves going after maximally concentrated and volatile allocations each day, which ideally are negatively correlated with each other.  An unavoidable consequence of that strategy (indeed part of its deliberate design) is that a lot (as many as half each day) of portfolios will get clobbered.  But since only one person wins the weekly prize (and since your performance essentially resets every week, if you're forsaking the overall prize to focus on the weeklies), having your portfolio clobbered is no worse than coming in 2nd in the weekly standings.  In fact, it's considerably better, given that you'd start the following week with a lower initial value, and reap more of a boost from the daily bonus bucks.

This week has shown us some impressive volatility (mostly to the downside), which takes some intestinal fortitude to work through, but if you can avoid the understandable tendency to flinch, we'll have a good shot at pulling down one or more of those lavish weekly prizes.

Consider all of the above to be for entertainment purposes and not meant to be used as real-world investment recommendations.  The goals and strategies of the Portfolio Challenge are not to be confused with those of sensible investing.

---

See all related posts in the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive:

• Week 5:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday
• Week 4:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
• Week 3:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
• Week 2:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
• Week 1:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
• Week 0:  Pre-game

• A New Fly In the Ointment
• Currency Trading Resumes
• More Technical Difficulties
• Prize Poll
• The Airing Of Grievances
• Technical Difficulties, Orders Cancelled

To receive additional updates by e-mail, drop a line here with the word "Subscribe" in the subject header.

---

Wednesday June 11th

Throughout the contest, each day's answers will be at the top of the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive as soon as the questions are published, so bookmark accordingly.

Daily Trivia:

Squawk Box:  "Question: Web video hunt: On Tuesday, Toll Bros. CEO Robert Toll told Power Lunch home prices may be stabilizing. Who interviewed him?"

    Answer:  Sue Herera

Squawk On the Street:  "Question: CNBC Stock Blog: According to Dan Eggers, what is the key to picking energy utility stocks?"

    Answer:  Deregulated environment

The Call:  "Question: In John McCain's June 10 CNBC interview, whom did the presidential candidate say he'd enlist to strengthen trade?"

    Answer:  Our traditional allies

Power Lunch:  "Question: In "Congress to Summer Workers: Drop Dead," Jerry Bowyer refers to which "universal laws of science"?"

    Answer:  All of the above

Street Signs:  "Question: In "Oil Services Stocks Are Price-Proof" Federated Investors' Phil Orlando says oil prices may sink as low as:?"

    Answer:  $110 to $100 range

Closing Bell: "Question: In "Answering Your Credit Questions" blogger Carmen Wong Ulrich says the "big secret" of the credit industry is that it's:"

    Answer:  "Very unregulated"

Comments

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Wednesday, Week 5

[Scroll down for answers to today's Bonus Bucks trivia questions.]

Watch this space for today's crowdsourcing experiment picks and contest updates.

Out of the gate, it looks like yesterday's Group 7 (the Saturday babies) is positioned to have the best day, but with all groups heavy into oil stocks or airlines, things could change dramatically by the end of the session, depending where oil prices go after today's crude inventories report.

Update: Crude underwent a steeper-than-expected drawdown last week, so the oil-heavy groups ought to improve somewhat (Groups 3, 5, and 7 - the Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday birthdays).  Still, it may not be enough to make up for another crummy round of earnings reports (QSII and KFY are both trading lower, despite reporting basically in line with expectations).  There's not much second-guessing we can do, either, since this lonely week has only 2 or 3 contest-eligible earnings reporters each day.  Even so, our top group is sporting a week-to-date gain of roughly 7.5%, including bonus bucks through today.

Today, however, is a little different.  We've got no fewer than five eligible earners to play with, in addition to our oil/airline see-saw.

• 99 CENTS Only (NDN)
• Casey's General Stores (CASY)
• China Medical Tech (CMED)
• School Specialty (SCHS)
• ENERSYS (ENS)

And for any surviving portfolios participating in the weekly winner experiment, let's separate into the following four groups, with the following four allocations, according to the first letter of your last name:

1. A-F: NDN, CASY, LCC, CAL
2. G-L: NDN, CASY, KWK, GDP
3. M-S: ENS, KWK, GDP, CHK
4. T-Z: LCC, CAL, AMR, UAUA

Important: As with yesterday, if you're using more than one portfolio for this project, allocate the first portfolio according to the last name scheme, the next portfolio to the allocation directly beneath it, and so on, until you've reallocated all involved portfolios.

For example: If your last name is Uumellmahaye, and you're using 3 portfolios, your allocations would be:

• T-Z: LCC, CAL, AMR, UAUA 
• A-F: NDN, CASY, LCC, CAL
• G-L: NDN, CASY, KWK, GDP

Quick postscript:  Just to clear up any confusion, you shouldn't be using the above allocations in any portfolios you're attempting to carry into one of the top 6 overall spots at the end of the game.  On Friday, we launched this experiment as an attempt to grab the weekly top spot for one of the participants, the strategy for which involves going after maximally concentrated and volatile allocations each day, which ideally are negatively correlated with each other.  An unavoidable consequence of that strategy (indeed part of its deliberate design) is that a lot (as many as half each day) of portfolios will get clobbered.  But since only one person wins the weekly prize (and since your performance essentially resets every week, if you're forsaking the overall prize to focus on the weeklies), having your portfolio clobbered is no worse than coming in 2nd in the weekly standings.  In fact, it's considerably better, given that you'd start the following week with a lower initial value, and reap more of a boost from the daily bonus bucks.

This week has shown us some impressive volatility (mostly to the downside), which takes some intestinal fortitude to work through, but if you can avoid the understandable tendency to flinch, we'll have a good shot at pulling down one or more of those lavish weekly prizes.

Consider all of the above to be for entertainment purposes and not meant to be used as real-world investment recommendations.  The goals and strategies of the Portfolio Challenge are not to be confused with those of sensible investing.

---

See all related posts in the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive:

• Week 5:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday
• Week 4:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
• Week 3:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
• Week 2:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
• Week 1:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
• Week 0:  Pre-game

• A New Fly In the Ointment
• Currency Trading Resumes
• More Technical Difficulties
• Prize Poll
• The Airing Of Grievances
• Technical Difficulties, Orders Cancelled

To receive additional updates by e-mail, drop a line here with the word "Subscribe" in the subject header.

---

Wednesday June 11th

Throughout the contest, each day's answers will be at the top of the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive as soon as the questions are published, so bookmark accordingly.

Daily Trivia:

Squawk Box:  "Question: Web video hunt: On Tuesday, Toll Bros. CEO Robert Toll told Power Lunch home prices may be stabilizing. Who interviewed him?"

    Answer:  Sue Herera

Squawk On the Street:  "Question: CNBC Stock Blog: According to Dan Eggers, what is the key to picking energy utility stocks?"

    Answer:  Deregulated environment

The Call:  "Question: In John McCain's June 10 CNBC interview, whom did the presidential candidate say he'd enlist to strengthen trade?"

    Answer:  Our traditional allies

Power Lunch:  "Question: In "Congress to Summer Workers: Drop Dead," Jerry Bowyer refers to which "universal laws of science"?"

    Answer:  All of the above

Street Signs:  "Question: In "Oil Services Stocks Are Price-Proof" Federated Investors' Phil Orlando says oil prices may sink as low as:?"

    Answer:  $110 to $100 range

Closing Bell: "Question: In "Answering Your Credit Questions" blogger Carmen Wong Ulrich says the "big secret" of the credit industry is that it's:"

    Answer:  "Very unregulated"