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CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Wednesday, Week 7

[Scroll to the bottom for answers to today's Bonus Bucks trivia questions.]

See updates below for today's updates, picks, and reallocation methodology.

To recap, yesterday was a solid follow-up to Monday's fine start to Week 7 for our crowdsourced strategy.  The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are all down week-to-date, but our best performing subgroup is up nearly 9% through Tuesday.

Even better - at least two of yesterday's four picks (Jabil Circuit and 3COM) are poised to gap up today, having posted results well in excess of analysts' expectations last night.  Based on after-hours trading, they were suggesting Wednesday jumps of 7.8% and 6.3%, respectively, which ought to be another shot in the arm for many of our participating portfolios today.

As for the other two picks in the new crop (HB Fuller and Monsanto), the former came in a penny shy last night, while the latter reports this morning.

Among the 7 subgroup allocations we split out yesterday, the above pairs (JBL/COMS and FUL/MON) were each paired both with airlines and and with oil stocks, so whichever pair does better (presumably JBL/COMS) could enjoy an additional boost, as long as oil moves decisively in either direction.

That ought to leave our surviving portfolios with a sufficiently enviable 3-day performance to remain strong contenders for that $32,500 private jet jaunt to Turks & Caicos.

This afternoon around 2 pm, once we know which subgroup is prevailing, we'll post today's reallocations.

While we're waiting, let's play Fed Policy Pick'em.

The Federal Reserve will announce the results of its June meeting at 2:15 this afternoon.  Trading in fed funds futures implies the market sees roughly a 90% chance that they'll leave the target rate unchanged at 2.0%, roughly 10% that they'll hike it to 2.25%, and a tiny chance that they'll cut it to 1.75% or 1.5%.

What do you think?

Update:  Poll closed.  82% of you got it right - no change to the fed funds target rate.

Update [10:00]:  More good news.  No one seems to mind HB Fuller's narrow earnings miss, perhaps because they reaffirmed their full year guidance.  Shares jumped 6% right out of the gate.

Monsanto beat expectations, but guided toward the lower end of its previously issued forecast.  Shares were down 4% shortly after the open.

Jabil Circuit, meanwhile, is a rocket - now trading 17% higher.  Participants in yesterday's Groups 1 and 5 (Sunday and Thursday birthdays, plus anyone using multiple portfolios who played either the Sunday or Thursday allocations) are having a blowout day thus far.  Both groups (whose allocations were  LCC/DAL/COMS/JBL and COMS/JBL/FUL/MON) are up more than 6% intraday, including bonus bucks.

Update [11:00]:  Sweet fancy Moses.  Thanks to a much better-than-expected crude oil inventories report (showing stockpiles swelling by 830,000 barrels, compared with the 1,700,000 barrel drawdown expected), oil prices have fallen several dollars per barrel and our airline stocks are off to the races (LCC: +5.3%, DAL: +8.8%, UAUA: +5.3%, AMR: +7.2%).  That leaves Groups 1 and 6 with astounding 10% intraday gains (with Groups 2 and 5 enjoying very respectable 6% gains).  If the session were to close at these prices, our best performing subgroup would be looking at a week-to-date gain of nearly 20%.

Update [1:00]:  The race is still on between Groups 1 and 6 for the biggest one-day gain, but 5 of the 7 allocations are up solidly, so if you've got portfolios in any of those groups, by all means keep on rolling.

For today's reallocations, let's go with the first letter of your last name, as follows:

• A-F:  OXY, DVN, CLR, GMXR
• G-L:  LCC, DAL, UAUA, AMR
• M-S:  MLHR, LEN, BBBY, CAG
• T-Z:  CAG, WOR, XRTX, DFS

Important:  If you're using more than one portfolio for this project, kindly allocate the first portfolio according to the surname initial scheme, the next portfolio to the allocation directly beneath it, and so on, until you've reallocated all participating portfolios.

For example: If your last name is Spitzer, and you're using 3 portfolios, your allocations would be:

• M-S:  MLHR, LEN, BBBY, CAG
• T-Z:  CAG, WOR, XRTX, DFS
• A-F:  OXY, DVN, CLR, GMXR

In all cases, each position should be set at 25%.  Don't forget to enter your trades by 4 pm ET.

Seven of these names (MLHR, LEN, BBBY, CAG, WOR, XRTX, and DFS) are selected earnings reporters.  For reference, seven other contest-eligible companies will also report earnings either after today's close or before tomorrow's open (MKC, PKE, RIMM, RHT, ORCL, NKE, and CKR).

Consider all of the above to be for entertainment purposes and not meant to be used as real-world investment recommendations.  The goals and strategies of the Portfolio Challenge are not to be confused with those of sensible investing. 

---

See all related posts in the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive:

Week 7:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday
Week 6:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 5:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 4:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 3:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 2:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 1:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 0:  Pre-game

• A New Fly In the Ointment
• Currency Trading Resumes
• More Technical Difficulties
• Prize Poll
• The Airing Of Grievances
• Technical Difficulties, Orders Cancelled

To receive additional updates by e-mail, drop a line here with the word "Subscribe" in the subject header.

---

Wednesday June 25th

Throughout the contest, each day's answers will be at the top of the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive as soon as the questions are published, so bookmark accordingly.

Daily Trivia:

Squawk Box:  "Question: The CNBC.com video "Underweight on China" Erwin Sanft says BNP Paribas downgraded a raft of Chinese stocks. How many?"

 Answer:  10

Squawk On the Street:  "Question: In Tuesday's edition of "Lightning Round OT" What was Cramer's exact take on Dominion Resources?"

 Answer:  "A real good one"

The Call:  "Question: Kiplinger's issued a list of stocks that "Warren Buffett would love." Name one. (Hint: You'll find the list on our site.)"

 Answer:  Tiffany

Power Lunch:  "Question: On June 24, Melissa Lee sat in for Maria Bartiromo in "Maria's Market Message" Web video. What story did she lead with?"

 Answer:  Fed meeting

Street Signs:  "Question: In his auto blog, Phil LeBeau mocked Jim Cramer! Finish Phil's phrase: "While Cramer may know stocks, I think he's...""

 Answer:  Crocked

Closing Bell:  "Question: CNBC Stock Blog: Neil Hennessy is a frequent CNBC guest and master stock picker. What was his Web Extra pick for Tuesday?"

 Answer:  ARG

Comments

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Wednesday, Week 7

[Scroll to the bottom for answers to today's Bonus Bucks trivia questions.]

See updates below for today's updates, picks, and reallocation methodology.

To recap, yesterday was a solid follow-up to Monday's fine start to Week 7 for our crowdsourced strategy.  The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are all down week-to-date, but our best performing subgroup is up nearly 9% through Tuesday.

Even better - at least two of yesterday's four picks (Jabil Circuit and 3COM) are poised to gap up today, having posted results well in excess of analysts' expectations last night.  Based on after-hours trading, they were suggesting Wednesday jumps of 7.8% and 6.3%, respectively, which ought to be another shot in the arm for many of our participating portfolios today.

As for the other two picks in the new crop (HB Fuller and Monsanto), the former came in a penny shy last night, while the latter reports this morning.

Among the 7 subgroup allocations we split out yesterday, the above pairs (JBL/COMS and FUL/MON) were each paired both with airlines and and with oil stocks, so whichever pair does better (presumably JBL/COMS) could enjoy an additional boost, as long as oil moves decisively in either direction.

That ought to leave our surviving portfolios with a sufficiently enviable 3-day performance to remain strong contenders for that $32,500 private jet jaunt to Turks & Caicos.

This afternoon around 2 pm, once we know which subgroup is prevailing, we'll post today's reallocations.

While we're waiting, let's play Fed Policy Pick'em.

The Federal Reserve will announce the results of its June meeting at 2:15 this afternoon.  Trading in fed funds futures implies the market sees roughly a 90% chance that they'll leave the target rate unchanged at 2.0%, roughly 10% that they'll hike it to 2.25%, and a tiny chance that they'll cut it to 1.75% or 1.5%.

What do you think?

Update:  Poll closed.  82% of you got it right - no change to the fed funds target rate.

Update [10:00]:  More good news.  No one seems to mind HB Fuller's narrow earnings miss, perhaps because they reaffirmed their full year guidance.  Shares jumped 6% right out of the gate.

Monsanto beat expectations, but guided toward the lower end of its previously issued forecast.  Shares were down 4% shortly after the open.

Jabil Circuit, meanwhile, is a rocket - now trading 17% higher.  Participants in yesterday's Groups 1 and 5 (Sunday and Thursday birthdays, plus anyone using multiple portfolios who played either the Sunday or Thursday allocations) are having a blowout day thus far.  Both groups (whose allocations were  LCC/DAL/COMS/JBL and COMS/JBL/FUL/MON) are up more than 6% intraday, including bonus bucks.

Update [11:00]:  Sweet fancy Moses.  Thanks to a much better-than-expected crude oil inventories report (showing stockpiles swelling by 830,000 barrels, compared with the 1,700,000 barrel drawdown expected), oil prices have fallen several dollars per barrel and our airline stocks are off to the races (LCC: +5.3%, DAL: +8.8%, UAUA: +5.3%, AMR: +7.2%).  That leaves Groups 1 and 6 with astounding 10% intraday gains (with Groups 2 and 5 enjoying very respectable 6% gains).  If the session were to close at these prices, our best performing subgroup would be looking at a week-to-date gain of nearly 20%.

Update [1:00]:  The race is still on between Groups 1 and 6 for the biggest one-day gain, but 5 of the 7 allocations are up solidly, so if you've got portfolios in any of those groups, by all means keep on rolling.

For today's reallocations, let's go with the first letter of your last name, as follows:

• A-F:  OXY, DVN, CLR, GMXR
• G-L:  LCC, DAL, UAUA, AMR
• M-S:  MLHR, LEN, BBBY, CAG
• T-Z:  CAG, WOR, XRTX, DFS

Important:  If you're using more than one portfolio for this project, kindly allocate the first portfolio according to the surname initial scheme, the next portfolio to the allocation directly beneath it, and so on, until you've reallocated all participating portfolios.

For example: If your last name is Spitzer, and you're using 3 portfolios, your allocations would be:

• M-S:  MLHR, LEN, BBBY, CAG
• T-Z:  CAG, WOR, XRTX, DFS
• A-F:  OXY, DVN, CLR, GMXR

In all cases, each position should be set at 25%.  Don't forget to enter your trades by 4 pm ET.

Seven of these names (MLHR, LEN, BBBY, CAG, WOR, XRTX, and DFS) are selected earnings reporters.  For reference, seven other contest-eligible companies will also report earnings either after today's close or before tomorrow's open (MKC, PKE, RIMM, RHT, ORCL, NKE, and CKR).

Consider all of the above to be for entertainment purposes and not meant to be used as real-world investment recommendations.  The goals and strategies of the Portfolio Challenge are not to be confused with those of sensible investing. 

---

See all related posts in the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive:

Week 7:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday
Week 6:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 5:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 4:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 3:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 2:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 1:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 0:  Pre-game

• A New Fly In the Ointment
• Currency Trading Resumes
• More Technical Difficulties
• Prize Poll
• The Airing Of Grievances
• Technical Difficulties, Orders Cancelled

To receive additional updates by e-mail, drop a line here with the word "Subscribe" in the subject header.

---

Wednesday June 25th

Throughout the contest, each day's answers will be at the top of the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive as soon as the questions are published, so bookmark accordingly.

Daily Trivia:

Squawk Box:  "Question: The CNBC.com video "Underweight on China" Erwin Sanft says BNP Paribas downgraded a raft of Chinese stocks. How many?"

 Answer:  10

Squawk On the Street:  "Question: In Tuesday's edition of "Lightning Round OT" What was Cramer's exact take on Dominion Resources?"

 Answer:  "A real good one"

The Call:  "Question: Kiplinger's issued a list of stocks that "Warren Buffett would love." Name one. (Hint: You'll find the list on our site.)"

 Answer:  Tiffany

Power Lunch:  "Question: On June 24, Melissa Lee sat in for Maria Bartiromo in "Maria's Market Message" Web video. What story did she lead with?"

 Answer:  Fed meeting

Street Signs:  "Question: In his auto blog, Phil LeBeau mocked Jim Cramer! Finish Phil's phrase: "While Cramer may know stocks, I think he's...""

 Answer:  Crocked

Closing Bell:  "Question: CNBC Stock Blog: Neil Hennessy is a frequent CNBC guest and master stock picker. What was his Web Extra pick for Tuesday?"

 Answer:  ARG