« Out: Post-Partisan. In: Post-Economic | Main | Congress' New Low »
CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Tuesday, Week 9
[Scroll to the bottom for answers to today's Bonus Bucks trivia questions.]
Watch this space for today's updates, picks, and reallocation methodology.
Looks like another day of blessed oil weakness (now down $8 $9 $10/barrel from Thursday's intraday high), which means another day of strength for the airline baskets being carried by 60% of our participating portfolios.
Yesterday's earnings pick Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG) is also preparing for a nice day, having beaten expectations by $0.03 per share this morning.
Update: Things look even better for yesterday's preferred earnings pick Helen of Troy (HELE), having beaten expectations by $0.12 per share on a non-GAAP basis.
At roughly 11:30, HELE was up 13.0%, while our four airline stocks were enjoying an average gain of 10.6%.
PBG, for whatever reason (possibly because the market has grown accustomed to its quarterly upside surprises), is trading down.
Update: Today, as second quarter earnings season begins to dawn, we've got a relative embarrassment of riches in our pool of eligible earnings reporters (compared to the recent drought, anyway).
The five candidates are Alcoa (AA),International Speedway (ISCA), Wolverine World Wide (WWW), Acergy (ACGY), and Sealy (ZZ). For our purposes (i.e. attempting to grab the names with the best chance of big one-day pops), we'll be going with the alphabetical bookends - AA and ZZ.
Folding those two into our oil and airline baskets, we arrive at four allocations. So far this week, we've allocated according to last names and phone numbers, so for this one, let's go back to birthdays.
- Jan-Mar: UAUA, LCC, CAL, DAL
- Apr-Jun: UAUA, LCC, AA, ZZ
- Jul-Sep: GMXR, GDP, CHK, CLR
- Oct-Dec: GMXR, GDP, AA, ZZ
Important: If you're using more than one portfolio for this project, kindly allocate the first portfolio according to the birthday scheme, the next portfolio to the allocation directly beneath it, and so on, until you've reallocated all participating portfolios.
For example: If you were born in August, and you're using 3 portfolios, your allocations would be:
In all cases, each position should be set at 25%. Don't forget to enter your trades by 4 pm ET.
Consider all of the above to be for entertainment purposes and not meant to be used as real-world investment recommendations. The goals and strategies of the Portfolio Challenge are not to be confused with those of sensible investing.
See all related posts in the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive:
Week 9: Monday, Tuesday
Week 8: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 7: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 6: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 5: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 4: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 3: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 2: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 1: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 0: Pre-game
- A New Fly In the Ointment
- Currency Trading Resumes
- More Technical Difficulties
- Prize Poll
- The Airing Of Grievances
- Technical Difficulties, Orders Cancelled
To receive additional updates by e-mail, drop a line here with the word "Subscribe" in the subject header.
Tuesday July 8th
Throughout the contest, each day's answers will be at the top of the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive as soon as the questions are published, so bookmark accordingly.
Daily Trivia:
Squawk Box: "Question: In Julia Boorstin's July 7 post about NBC Universal's Weather Channel buy, which of NBC's Web sites does she mention?"
Answer: Hulu.com
Squawk On the Street: "Question: In Fast Money's July 3 post, "Our Favorite Inflation Trades", what was Guy Adami's play?"
Answer: Long Lockheed Martin
The Call: "Question:
In the feature, "ETFs Provide Cover When Markets Get Crazy," which ETF does John Schloegel recommend?"
Answer: All of the above
Power Lunch: "Question: Web video hunt: On July 7, Stifel Nicolaus' David Lutz weighed in on financial stocks. He recommended buying:"
Answer: Mastercard
Street Signs: "Question: On Monday, Rebecca Darst said banks were rattled by the options action surrounding which stock(s)?"
Answer: Zions Bancorp
Closing Bell: "Question: CNBC Stock Blog: On Monday, hospitality analyst Jake Fuller panned which casino stock?"
Answer: Las Vegas Sands
Handcrafted by Flip on July 8, 2008 |
TrackBack
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c572653ef00e5538ddab08833
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Tuesday, Week 9:
Comments
Flip: Thank you for your good sportsmanship. I do not think I will manage to get into any CNBC prize. I did manage to make a great deal of money on AMEX:SKF. Unfortunately, it could not be in the CNBC contest. I learned a great deal about currency trading by just experimenting. You totally rock. Thank you.Posted by: Fish Gone Bad | Jul 8, 2008 1:40:54 AM
Sure hope it holds up today! I've got 3 Airlines & HELE.Posted by: Mike | Jul 8, 2008 12:40:47 PM
First of all, thank you for the daily bonus answers. I am loaded with airlines today and one of my portfolios might end up at around 1.85mil this evening. What do you think I should do for the rest of the week(I'm not after the weekly prize)? The leaders at 2.2 and 2.3mils seem still far ahead and the contest will end next week.Posted by: Carmen | Jul 8, 2008 1:12:21 PM
Hi Carmen - Congrats on your performance so far. We'll be watching for you on the leaderboard tomorrow.From what I'm hearing, it sounds like we may have multiple participants about to break into the top 25. If/when that happens, we'll be working off of a somewhat different playbook. The allocation schemes we've been coordinating for the last few weeks have been solely intended to go after the weekly prizes (a pursuit in which there's no consequence to massive losses, so long as some of the portfolios each day book substantial gains, since only one person can win each week's prize and portfolio values effectively reset each week for weekly performance purposes). This is obviously not the case for the overall contest, since there are 6 cash prizes, not just one (and since you're only in competition with a small set of players who remain in the hunt, not hundreds of thousands, as is the case with the weeklys). In short, going for the overall win reduces the degree of risk-seeking associated with optimal strategy. To win out (or to place in the top 6), players in the top 25 going into Week 10 will need to remain very risk-tolerant, just not as nutso risk-seeking as one needs to be when shooting for the weekly prizes.
I'll be happy to chat one-on-one with anyone in contention for an overall prize, but it probably doesn't make sense to publish general final week strategy for those folks in this public forum, primarily because your competition will be able to read it and see what you're doing. If you are gunning for an overall prize, though, I would advise you not to follow the daily reallocation schemes published here. Those are devised specifically to maximize the chances of one reader winning the weekly prize, which is not necessarily congruent with your objectives.
That said, the daily earnings picks (today: AA and ZZ) continue to represent the eligible companies I think have the best chance of a significant upside move the next day, so you may want to incorporate those into your reallocations. Drop me a line if you want to discuss further.
Posted by: Flip | Jul 8, 2008 1:32:02 PM
thanks for advice! i was also thinking some ZZ, and maybe some energy stocks(but not a lot) for protection against an oil surge. Most of the portfolios on the leaderboard are still partially oil correlated based on how they move day to day(but this might change after today:)Posted by: Carmen | Jul 8, 2008 2:46:14 PM
I certainly like the 14.8% gain I got today. That makes the portfolio up 16.8% for the week so far. Wonder how far out of the weekly prize that will be to this point. I know I'd love to win this one as I've always wanted to play in the World Series of Poker. I'm in the top 1200 for the overall prize too. I'd love to talk about ideas for attempting to get there.Posted by: Steven | Jul 8, 2008 4:39:58 PM
I got 14.4 not counting bonus + the 2.3 from yesterday. I'm still amazed I'm in the top .8% 6100 yesterday. I'd need a few doubles to get to the top but the WSOP would be nice. :)Posted by: Mike | Jul 8, 2008 5:12:17 PM
flip, i got robbed yesterday. i had all my portfolios done by 12 central on friday and they still didnt reallocate my stocks for monday. would have had an extra 5% on top of 1 of my 14% gainers today. oh well. hope everybody does well and somebody from this site can bring home some great prizes....ps, if someone here wins wsop package this week, i would be very interested in buying it. thanks, jasonPosted by: jason | Jul 8, 2008 6:28:42 PM
Is the gain/loss Weekley at the top of a potfolio, the correct to win the weekly prize. I hit one good Tuesday and show a 17.9% gain but when I look at the weekly leaders I am not there and they only have a weekly gain of 11%. I was getting excited until I saw thatPosted by: JAXXMAN | Jul 8, 2008 7:34:23 PM
I'm at 17.9 also, moved up to 465. The weekly leader board has not updated yet. AA looks good for tomorrow but ZZ may drag it down. I've got AMR and UAUA with it.Posted by: Mike | Jul 8, 2008 8:22:45 PM
There must be something wrong with the weekly leader board. It is now showing a weekly leaders in the 90% to 96% range. I don't see how this is possible. I had ABK and MBI with two other financials in one of my portfolios to show a total daily gain of 22.2%, but I am no where near a 90% weekly gain??? ABK and MBI were two of the biggest gainers today.Posted by: Alpha | Jul 8, 2008 8:25:15 PM
It's up but something must be wrong! They're all > 90%.Posted by: Mike | Jul 8, 2008 8:33:19 PM
Alpha - I'm seeing the same thing. Either something in the system has gone buggy (not terribly unlikely, based on historical precedent) or some group of people have found a spectacular new way to cheat.Posted by: Flip | Jul 8, 2008 8:33:31 PM
no stock shows a gain over 50% how is the leaderboard at 90%Posted by: jason | Jul 8, 2008 8:34:57 PM
The 90% + gains could be the scenario we discussed during week one or two. Lose as much money in one portfolio as possible so the bonus buck dollars make a huge % gain. I thought about doing it but sadly did not. I wanted the WSP prize also.Posted by: milosh | Jul 8, 2008 8:37:15 PM
Milosh - there is a chance that this strategy might have worked for a couple of people, but why would everyone on the leaderboard today decide to execute the $12,000 gain on the same day? Seems like there is something wrong with the system.Posted by: Alpha | Jul 8, 2008 8:44:26 PM
Jason - dunno. It's very strange. I e-mailed Customer Care to inquire. Will update with any response. Some of you may want to email them too, to make sure they're aware of the issue.Milosh - that effect can't account for the size of these weekly gains. Per the rules, no portfolio is eligible for the weekly prize unless it has "a total value of at least Two Hundred Fifty Thousand (250,000) CNBC Bucks after all transactions have been processed and all Bonus Bucks (as defined below) have been awarded following the end of trading on the Friday of the prior week."
Available Bonus Bucks to date total $26,000 (just over 10% of the minimum eligible account value). Add that to yesterday's maximum gain of 11% and you still need nearly 70 percentage points to reach today's weekly leaderboard. Not possible using contest-eligible stocks, so far as I can tell.
Posted by: Flip | Jul 8, 2008 8:44:51 PM
This is a shame. Blatent cheating or fixed cnbc contest. you would have to have had 4 stocks up an avarage of 60 percent today. check out the top percentage gainers on all 3 exchanges. I f i were yesterday in the top 25 or top 10 weekly i would be outraged. this contest is now very fixed!Posted by: pat | Jul 8, 2008 9:19:12 PM
Funny thing - a few of these 90-percenters are also on the overall leaderboard. I am #20 but tomorrow might not be a good day.Posted by: Carmen | Jul 8, 2008 9:23:48 PM
This is obviously a mistake. Let's say you were the number 1 % leader yesterday with 11%+, and you luckily added the top 4 eligible stocks today which were ABK, NWA, MTG, and PSMT. Your maximum daily gain for today could have been 34.9% on top of the 11%+ gain yesterday. The only variable here is the balance of the players currency account, but if there were able to run it down to let's say $10,000, they would have had to run their stock account down to $5,000 in order to achieve the 96% weekly gain.Posted by: Alpha | Jul 8, 2008 9:31:12 PM
I AM DISGUSTED. THE RESULTS ARE THEORETICALLY IMPOSSIBLE UNDER ANY COMBINATIONS OF SCENARIOS. I DEMAND THAT THIS BE FIXED IMMEDIATELY. EVEN IF THIS IS CORRECTED, THE REAL LEADERS ARE GIVEN A DIS-SERVICE BECAUSE THEY DO NOT GET THE PROPER EXPOSURE AND PUBLICITY AS THEY SHOULD UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES. I WAS SURE I WOULD BE IN THE TOP 10 FOR THE WEEK. I EMAILED CUSTOMER SERVICE 3 TIMES AND HAVE RECEIVED NO RESPONSE. THIS IS B.S. I DEMAND THAT THIS LEADERBOARD BE UPDATED AND MADE CORRECT. I AM VERY UPSET.Posted by: HELLO | Jul 8, 2008 11:33:58 PM
also look at the 3 at the bottom of the top 10.. with the EXACT SAME amount, DIFFERENT PEOPLE, DOWN to the HUNDREDTHS decimal place... 8 Robert Haskin +90.14% 9 Chris King +90.14% 10 Dustin Mason +90.14% *********THIS MUST BE FIXED IMMEDIATELY***********Posted by: HELLO | Jul 8, 2008 11:50:39 PM
Flip- You da man! Thanks for the excellent site and forum to share our thoughts. I've taken the strategy of "shorting" a few of my portfolios as far as possible to maximize the bonus bucks. A couple are (were) down to the low $600's yesterday before my jackpot today with ABK, MBI, MTG and WB/LEH (Up 27% today). I goofed and missed the bonus bucks so far this week (4%) but should be able to squeeze another 6% through bonuses by the end of the week for a total gain of 33% if I went to cash today. Since I expect others to be having similar weeks (like Alpha above @22%), I'm staying fully invested. Fortunately I have three similar portfolios with 30%+ gains as of today (including the forecasted bonus pts) and will now take different approaches for the remainder of the week (financials, airlines, oil) to see where it gets me. All this assumes that the 90% gain B.S. is resolved. Good luck to everyone! Cheers.Posted by: Greedsgood | Jul 8, 2008 11:51:18 PM
