Suitably Flip

SEC To Greenlight Blogging In Lieu Of Corporate Press Releases

This will be quite a change (if it comes to pass) to the way companies comply with the public disclosure requirements of Regulation FD.  Quite a welcome change, I'd think.  To everyone but Business Wire, that is.

Brian Solis at TechCrunch has lots to say about it.

Toilet Hvmor

Scientists have unearthed the world's oldest joke.

And yes, it's a fart joke.

(HT: Freakonomics)

Scientology Slapped With Civil RICO Suit

Xenu's most perfect creation is named individually.

(Sounds like a potentially flimsy suit, despite the "religion" clearly having it coming.)

Tom Cruise is named in a $250 million federal lawsuit that is using the RICO statute against the Church of Scientology. Ex-Scientologist Peter Letterese, a longtime critic of the church, filed suit in Southern District Court in Florida on July 15 alleging, among other things, that members of the church harassed him after he left.
...
One of Letterese's beefs is that the church allegedly uses a business book, "Effective Sales Closing Techniques," as part of its teachings. He says this violates his intellectual property rights, since he bought the rights to the book from the widow of author Leslie Dane.

Cruise's lawyer, Bert Fields, did not respond to an e-mail requesting comment.

Karin Pouw, a spokeswoman for the Church of Scientology, told us: "This is a frivolous suit based on falsehoods."

As for the Dane book, Pouw said, "Earlier this month, the federal Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit already rejected similar claims and affirmed that the church's use of the book in question was fair use. Mr. Letterese was penalized $266,000 by a California court for refusing to provide evidence to support many of the same allegations."

If RICO applies, the damages can be tripled.

The Super Adventure Club probably isn't what the statute's drafters had in mind, but then again...

Notre Dame law professor G. Robert Blakey, one of its main drafters, insists that Congress never intended to restrict its application to the Mob. "We don't want one set of rules for people whose collars are blue or whose names end in vowels, and another set for those whose collars are white and have Ivy League diplomas," he says.

Presumably the same goes for people whose collars are red and who rule the Galactic Confederacy.

(HT: WWTDD)

She Owes Money All Over Town, Man

Including to known educators.  (And that's cool, that's cool...)

While Clinton paid off outstanding debts to 15 colleges and universities last month, she still owes almost $150,000 for events her campaign held at schools across the nation.

According to the Federal Election Commission, Clinton owes a total of $146,347.29 to 10 colleges and universities. This includes $24,238.99 - a sum that has increased slightly since last month - still owed to Penn.

Ron Ozio, director for media relations at Penn, said the fees charged by the University generally include costs for sound equipment, other equipment rentals and staff set-up time, though he was unsure of the specific costs included in Clinton's bill.

2Q GDPick'em - Results

The magic number was 1.9%.

Economists were looking for second quarter growth to clock in at 2.3%, so it's a bit of a miss.  The reading likewise came in lower than 78% of you predicted (poll results below).  I thought it might reach as high as 2.8-3.0%

I guess not.

On the bright side, it does show marked acceleration from the first quarter's growth rate of 0.9%, thanks in part to the impact of the timing of the stimulus checks.

On the less bright side, the fourth quarter 2007 growth estimate was revised downward (as part of broad changes in both calculation and estimation methodology) to show a blip of negative growth.

The relatively small revisions to the annual estimates reflect partly offsetting revisions to the quarters within a year.  For example, for 2007, the annual rate of growth of real GDP for the second quarter was revised up 1.0 percentage point, from 3.8 percent to 4.8 percent, while the growth rate for the fourth quarter was revised down 0.8 percentage point, from a small increase (0.6 percent) to a small decrease (0.2 percent).

Does Oil's $5 Rebound Kibosh the Burst Bubble Theory?

In a word, notsomuch.

The thesis that oil prices were behaving bubblishly (and correspondingly, that their eventual downfall would be swift, drastic, and fueled by a sudden and cascading shift in expectations) is still very much intact, notwithstanding today's big leap in oil prices, which came on the heels of a report of unexpectedly declining gasoline stores.

Now that we're a couple weeks into oil's swift and drastic backslide, the bubble faithful were likely expecting a sizable rebound right about now, assuming they were using prior bubbles' lifecycles as a template.

Consider the bursting of the tech bubble.  The Nasdaq (in blue) peaked on March 10, 2000, after which it tanked some 17% over 18 trading days.  From there, it regained six of those percentage points (rebound in light blue) in just 3 days.  And next, it went on to double its previous decline over the following 5 sessions.

At a very similar point in the plummet cycle, oil prices (in red), having fallen 16% from their peak of $145 per barrel over 17 trading days, just enjoyed a rebound of their own (rebound in bright red), recovering 3.5 percentage points of their decline in a single day to settle near $127 per barrel.

     Oil vs. Nasdaq
     Percent of Max Price, by Days From Peak

(They've even got matching mini-rebounds at 90% about a week earlier.  Isn't that darling?)

If oil prices were to precisely track the Nasdaq burst going forward, they'd still have another $3 to climb over the next couple days before resuming their decline, but once the bottom were to fall out again (some time mid-to-late next week), we'd see oil quite suddenly plunging back into double digits.

Of course the one thing we know with near certainty about oil prices is that they will not perfectly track the Nasdaq burst (or any other bubble's burst).  But this cursory survey of bubble anatomy does seem to refute any contention that today's rebound changes the bubble thesis in any meaningful way (except, perhaps, to lend it additional stylistic authenticity).

Lake Blob Takes Kids' Spines

Can this possibly be real?

Not that anything particular about it appears forged.  But people are pretty handy with the video foolery these days.  And this contraption just seems too wonderful terrible to be legit.

Better hope it's faked, or you just laughed at a little girl's searing pain.

And if it's real, where can I get one of these?

(HT: Gizmodo)

Gangsta Pap

Barack Obama's special AIDS advisor and "biz handler" Chris Bridges has released a touching musical tribute to his favored Presidential candidate.

The artistic eloquence on display here raises Luda's latest above hip hop's earthly plain and into the realm of true literature.

I'm back on it like I just signed my record deal
Yeah the best is here, the Bentley Coup paint is dripping wet, it got sex appeal
Never should have hated
You never should've doubted him
With a slot in the president's iPod Obama shattered 'em
Said I handled his biz and I'm one of his favorite rappers
Well give Luda a special pardon if I'm ever in the slammer
Better yet put him in office, make me your vice president
Hillary hated on you, so that b^$&%* is irrelevant
Jesse talking slick and apologizing for what?
If you said it then you meant it how you want it have a gut!
And all you other politicians trying to hate on my man,
Watch us win a majority vote in every state on my man
You can't stop what's bout to happen, we bout to make history
The first black president is destined and it's meant to be
The threats ain't fazing us, the nooses or the jokes
So get off your ass, black people, it's time to get out and vote!
Paint the White House black and I'm sure that's got 'em terrified
McCain don't belong in ANY chair unless he's paralyzed
Yeah I said it cause Bush is mentally handicapped
Ball up all of his speeches and I throw em like candy wrap
Cause what you talking I hear nothing even relevant
And you the worst of all 43 presidents
Get out and vote or the end will be near
The world is ready for change because Obama is here!
Cause Obama is here
The world is ready for change because Obama is here!

Via Allah, who asks:

How does this stack up with the New Yorker cover? Both were created with an eye to defending Obama, both can be used by his political opponents against him (at least, in the New Yorker’s case, among dullards unable to grasp satire). I’m guessing that whereas the magazine was squarely blamed for Covergate, Ludacris will plead authenticity and be duly absolved.

Like clockwork, under the bus goes Mr. Bridges.

"As Barack Obama has said many, many times in the past, rap lyrics today too often perpetuate misogyny, materialism, and degrading images that he doesn’t want his daughters or any children exposed to," said spokesman Bill Burton. "This song is not only outrageously offensive to Senator Clinton, Reverend Jackson, Senator McCain, and President Bush, it is offensive to all of us who are trying to raise our children with the values we hold dear. While Ludacris is a talented individual he should be ashamed of these lyrics."

After all, back in 2006 when Obama was in closer consult with Ludacris, how was he to know such degrading misogony lurked within the artist?

2Q GDPick'em

Tomorrow morning, the Commerce Department will release its advance estimate of second quarter GDP, giving us our first peek at the pace of economic growth for the most recent quarter.

Economists expect a reading of 2.3%, which would be a substantial acceleration from the first quarter's growth rate of 1.0% (which was an acceleration from 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2007).

But the flood of corporate and economic data coursing in recently has been sufficiently upbeat that this estimate is beginning to look somewhat low.  With just over half of the S&P 500 having reported second quarter earnings, expectations beaters outnumber missers by more than 3 to 1..  Last Friday, the Commerce Department reported that durable goods shipments for the month of June increased 0.8% (significantly better than the 0.4% decline expected).  And earlier this month, the most recent trade balance data showed an unexpected increase in net exports.

Based on the scale of the recent outperformance (and the staleness of the 2.3% consensus estimate), I wouldn't be surprised to see a GDP growth number in the range of 2.8%-3.0% tomorrow morning.  That still wouldn't qualify as "swift" but we'd certainly be able to shelve the word "anemic" for a while.

(Plus, it would make for an amusing morning for those watching the AP straining to spin the data as just another sign of economic armageddon.)

Lodge your prediction for tomorrow's GDP growth reading in the pollbox below.

Not that it counts for the April-June period, but the ADP payroll report for July came out this morning, showing an unexpected increase in private employment, which is helping the markets maintain a decent mood a day before the new GDP numbers.  And oil prices are heading lower again today, which (as I wrote about yesterday) has been a perfect determinant of market direction every day since oil began tumbling from its peak two weeks ago.

Oil: "Jump." Dow: "How High?"

Since oil's recent peak above $147 per barrel, prices have come crashing down nearly 18%.  Today alone, front month crude futures are off 2.5%, sinking to $121 and change in midday trading.

Not surprisingly, stocks are having a fine day against the backdrop of dwindling oil prices.  What is somewhat surprising is just how responsive the equity markets have become to the daily swings in oil prices over the past couple weeks.

Tuesday, July 15 marked the beginning of oil's rapid downfall.  In the 10 trading sessions since, equities (as benchmarked by the Dow Industrials) have moved in the opposite direction of oil prices every day.  That might not sound particularly noteworthy, until you consider the fact that this intuitive tendency only holds true about 60% of the time on a day-to-day basis.  (A 60% event has less than a 1% chance of hitting 10 times in a row.)

Daily Price Change
Oil vs. Dow Industrials

But more notable than the recent consistency of the general counter-trend (i.e. stocks move up when oil moves down and vice versa) is the strength of the magnitude correlation.  If you were to predict that stocks would move in perfect opposition to oil prices (offset downward by 1%), you could map the price movement of the Dow fairly well over the last two weeks.

(Graphically speaking, flip the red line and shift it down one tick.)

Daily Price Change
Oil vs. Dow Industrials

With everything else buffeting the market (second quarter earnings season, a slew of economic data, a highly volatile financial sector, Congressional wrangling over housing legislation, etc.), it seems to be the price of crude oil - increasingly and above all else - that's dictating daily swings in market sentiment.

This is particularly interesting if you think the commodity fever has finally broken and the oil bubble has plenty more deflating to do.  Bear in mind that at $121 per barrel, we've receded to May 2008 levels, but we're still more than 50% higher than we were just a year ago, so there may be a lot of room below.

The trend also highlights just how sensitive your portfolio's value is to the disposition of the current political football of whether to unban offshore drilling.

Nancy Pelosi To "Save the Planet" With Perpetual Foreign Oil Dependency

Not sure I follow her logic.

Obstructing domestic energy exploration is threatening to become an ever-weightier albatross around Democrats' collective neck this November.  With 73% of Americans supporting the expansion of drilling into currently verboten areas and only 9% supporting the Congress that so inexplicably resists it, this one's rapidly evolving from your typical "wedge issue" into something closer to "political mass suicide".

Insider Trading Site - 50 Beta Invites

The Inside Story is a site that aggregates real-time insider transactions (legal ones) among public companies.  Any traders that want to try out the beta release should e-mail Khaled Helmi with "Insider Trading Beta Testing" in the subject header.

Noted Periodontist Thwacks Obama

One of the senior members of Hollywood's lonely set of outspoken non-liberals has a go at his colleagues' most cherished leading man.

Anonymous Official Predicts "Record" Deficit. AP Invites You To Set Head Ablaze

This is bound to inspire a few follow-on freak-outs among recession-obsessed media types.

The next president will inherit a record budget deficit approaching $490 billion, a Bush administration official said Monday.

The official said the deficit was being driven to an all-time high by the sagging economy and the stimulus payments being made to 130 million households in an effort to keep the country from falling into a deep recession. A deficit approaching $490 billion would easily surpass the record deficit of $413 billion set in 2004.

The administration official spoke on condition of anonymity because the new estimate had not been formally released. Administration officials were scheduled to do that at a news conference later Monday.

Another bit of news sure to scare the Malthusian bujeezus out of the press: world population is expected to hit an all-time record this year.

Nominal records are obviously fairly meaningless.  In the case of government budgets, a more meaningful metric is the deficit as a percent of national output.  When you measure the size of the government's revenue shortfall against the size of the economy (and compare it to previous years), you find something far less sensational.

Federal Surplus (Deficit) As % of GDP

At 3.4% of GDP, the 2008 deficit (as projected by the unnamed source) is not only not the largest ever, it isn't even the largest in the last 5 years.

Of the last 40 years, it barely cracks the top third.

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - The (Real) Winners' Circle

This morning on Squawk Box, the two "finalists" (and odd word, since the contest ended a week and a half ago) were being interviewed - Edward Burke and David Allen Lesser.  They won't be revealing which of the two won and which came in second until Power Lunch (12-2), nor - so far as I know - have they announced the names of any of the other top 6 overall finishers or the Week 10 winner.

The two have even been kept isolated during their trip to New Jersey, so they can't simply ask each other what their final portfolio values were and determine who won.  I'm not sure I understand the point.  Are you finding it more suspenseful?  Or needlessly drawn out, following 10 days of tabulating?

Update [1:00 pm]: The site is down.

Update [2:00 pm]: Results:

Grand Prize ($500,000): Edward Burke
First Prize ($250,000): David Lesser
Second Prize ($100,000): David Price
Third Prize ($50,000 each): Andrew Krussell, Bradford Pine, and Jeffrey Elwyn

[T]he last week of currency trading is what propelled our Grand Prize winner.  While a strong performer in stock trading, Edward Burke blew the doors off everybody else with his extremely active currency trading skills in the EUR/USD. There were some pretty wide daily swings in the euro, and he capitalized on most of them. Other contest winners traded currencies as well, but with more modest results.

Week 10 winner... ?

Update [3:30 pm]:  Week 10 winner: Mitchell Schaffer

Update [8:00 pm]:  Looks like they've updated the site with everyone's final rank (mine: #98).

How did everyone do?

Previously:
Winners To Be Announced Monday, July 28
Announcement Of Winners Punted To Next Week
The (Empty) Winners' Circle

See all related posts in the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive.

Silky Jr.'s Paternity Mostly Confirmed

Scumbag.

Making his married, father-of-three campaign staffer take the rap on this one was a nice touch.

(HT: Ace)

Articulating McCain's America

Brett Joshpe, co-author of the Why You're Wrong About the Right, has an op-ed in today's Washington Times with some messaging advice for John McCain that would be constitute a timely counterpoint to Obama's European prance-about.

You ought to give it a read.  So should John McCain.

Crude Senatorial Loggerheads

Senate Republicans had hoped to put an end to the now purely Congressional moratorium on offshore drilling, via an amendment to the anti-free-market bill which aimed to make the government the arbiter of the appropriate amount of speculation in energy markets.

Harry Reid was unduly scandalized by the prospect of exploiting cheap domestic energy sources and couldn't allow his misguided scapegoatery to be diluted with substantive and effective measures.  He tried to ram it through as was, but it fell 10 votes shy of cloture.

Naturally, Reid handled this blow to feckless demagoguery with grace and aplomb.

Reporters tried to pin Reid down Thursday on the amendment issue.

In the exchange, Reid told one reporter she should “watch the [Senate] floor more often. … You might learn something.”

Another reporter explained she had watched the Senate proceedings and said it was not clear he was … offereing separate amendments, to which Reid asked the reporter if she “spoke English.”

“Turn up your Miracle Ear,” Reid added.

Reid may need to check his own comprehension of English. He did allow only two amendments on the bill, which Dick Durbin confirmed during a floor speech. If Reid can’t count to two, he should stop worrying about the English skills of reporters and get into a remedial math class.

Part of what's confusing Reid and his ilk is the distinction between speculation and manipulation.  Speculation isn't a bad thing.  Indeed, it's a very good thing.  Without speculators, you'd only have natural hedgers participating in commodity futures markets.  Prices would be much less stable and market participants with unwanted inherent exposure to those prices (including farmers, airlines, manufacturers, retailers, and shareholders and customers of the whole lot) would have a much harder time offloading that undue risk.  In short, speculators are a crucial part of a robust marketplace that moves us toward a more optimal allocation of risk.  Without them, the liquidity and efficiency of the marketplace suffers and so does every participant in that market (which definitely includes you).

Manipulation is something quite different (though this is the concept many lawmakers hope you envision when they rail against speculators).  Market manipulation involves deceptive and distortive practices intended to take unfair advantage of other market participants.  This does happen, but happily we don't need kneejerk-prone legislators to save us from it because it's already proscribed by law.  The CFTC, which has regulatory authority over futures markets, just charged Chicago investment firm Optiver and its Dutch holding company with breaking these very laws.

This is good news and bad.  Well, and neutral.  The neutral news is that Optiver's activities certainly had a near-zero impact on the overall price of oil.  Their million-dollar skim was a drop in the multi-quadrillion-dollar ocean of commodity futures markets.  The good news  of course is that the CFTC has caught an alleged market manipulator.  The decidedly bad news is that a lot of people will glean precisely the wrong lesson from the case.  They'll see it as proof that oil prices are indeed being manipulated by market speculators and that speculation thus needs to be drastically reined in and much more tightly regulated.  As discussed above, speculation is not only a legitimate activity amid futures markets, it's vital to their smooth functioning and imposing onerous restrictions on it will cause the market itself (and its 6 billion participants) to suffer.

Manipulation is bad.  It's rare and it has very little if any impact on real prices, but it's illegal, it's unfair, and the CFTC and federal law enforcement are already empowered to deter, detect, and punish it.  Speculation and manipulation are wholly different activities, notwithstanding the desire among many legislators that you conflate the two, in hopes that they might scapegoat one (a big population of tangible, demonizable, typically high-income people) with the sins of the other, and convince you they're "doing something" about the high price of oil.

The most reliable, most immediate way to extend oil's harrowing plummet that's seen prices shed as much as $22 in two weeks (with prices dipping below $123 per barrel today) would be for Congress to finally lift the stupefyingly senseless drilling moratorium.

Unfortunately, it looks like we won't be making any headway on that front today.  And if this bill does get another chance after the Congressional recess (and assuming Harry can be persuaded to let his colleagues vote on amendements), the cost of eliminating the drilling ban will almost certainly include letting the federal government ride roughshod over a key component of well-functioning free markets.

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Winners To Be Announced Monday, July 28

That's per an ad on CNBC this morning, not the website which is as nebulous as ever.  They say they'll be devoting a whole day of coverage to it (oddly enough).

Also, in a comment on yesterday's post, Max informs us that he received "prize papers" this past Monday (total portfolio value: $2.659 million) to fill out and return.  I wouldn't say that's necessarily a guarantee of winning one of the cash prizes (they may be asking anyone in contention to complete the paperwork, so things can move faster once they've verified the rankings and weeded out the filthy cheaters).  But it does seem to bode well for at least one of our readers, who edged out Max by just $3,000.

Anyone else who's received paperwork from or been contacted by CNBC (beyond form responses to email inquiries), give us a holler.

Update:  Don't panic if you haven't heard anything from CNBC yet.  It sounds like some people with higher final portfolio values than Max have not received any paperwork.

Update:  Okay, contenders, stay by your phones and computers.  CNBC is continuing to contact winners through today's close.

Let us know if you get a call!

Update:  Here's the email regarding Monday's broadcast.

Dear CNBC Viewer,

Thank you for your inquiry about the names of the finalists and grand prize winner to the CNBC.com Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge.

Please tune to CNBC Monday, July 28, beginning on "Squawk Box" at approximately 7:15 AM ET when CNBC's Brian Shactman will begin interviewing the three finalists about their specific trading strategies that catapulted them to the top spots.

The grand prize winner will be announced during "Power Lunch," which is seen on CNBC Noon-2 PM ET.

You can also log onto CNBC.com beginning Monday during "Squawk Box" for updates and videos of the finalists.

Thank you for your interest and participating in the CNBC.com Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge.

Regards,
Manish Gupta
Customer Care

Drop me a line and I'll add your email address to a list to be notified as soon as the winners are announced.

Previously:
Announcement Of Winners Punted To Next Week
The (Empty) Winners' Circle

See all related posts in the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive.

Recessionists Brace For a Depressing Week Ahead

Oh dear.

The Commerce Department reported Friday that orders for durable goods increased 0.8 percent last month, far better than the 0.4 percent decline that economists had been expecting.

Worse still...

Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders for durable goods -- items expected to last at least three years -- shot up by 2 percent, the best showing since last December and much better than the 0.2 percent decline that had been expected.

This is genuinely troubling news for anyone emotionally or politically invested in the increasingly remote prospects of economic recession (or even a protracted slowdown).

Next week, we'll get our first peek at second quarter GDP growth, which seems like the last bite the gloomsayers will have at the malaise apple.  First quarter growth (at 1.0%) was aptly described as anemic, but equally aptly described as upwardly revised and accelerating from the fourth quarter.

What's more, we've seen other 2Q GDP inputs surprising to the upside in recent weeks, which lends further support to the thesis that we'll see another quarter of accelerating economic growth when the report comes out next Thursday.

Meanwhile, the miserymongers-in-chief (whose track record on the subject is familiar to regular readers) are scrambling to deflate this morning's remarkably upbeat report:

Analysts said that the June performance was being propped up by sizable military spending for equipment, reflecting the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and this was offsetting widespread weakness in the rest of the economy.

Right.  But those analysts were aware of the relative strength in military spending.  It was factored into their consensus forecast of a 0.4% decline.  Ex-defense, durable goods spending was expected to decline far more steeply than the blended expected decrease of 0.4%. 

And yet:

...excluding demand for defense equipment, total orders would have been up a much more modest 0.1 percent.

And that's a significant upside surprise.

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Announcement Of Winners Punted To Next Week

A reader points out that the contest website has just yanked the modifier "this week" from its guidance on when you should "tune in to find out the winner's (sic)."

In fairness, it's only been six days.  The wheel can only turn so fast before the hamster sicks up.

Previously:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - The (Empty) Winners' Circle

Wir Sind die Welt

As Princess Obama enchants the Germans, Jim Geraghty wonders if you can distinguish between the Senator's Brandenburg Gate Victory Column utterances and the lyrical stylings of the mid-80's most influential anti-drought supergroup.

Pop quiz, hot shot. Pick out the "We Are The World" lyrics vs. Obama speech lines.

A: "We can't go on pretending day by day that someone, somewhere will soon make a change."

B: "This is the moment we must help answer the call."

C: "But if you just believe there's no way we can fall."

D. "The world will watch and remember what we do."

E. "Let us realize that a change can only come when we stand together as one."

F. "We cannot afford to be divided."

G. "These now are the walls we must tear down."

H. "This is the moment when we must come together."

I. "They'll know that someone cares, and their lives will be stronger and free."

Answers at the Campaign Spot.

An Affirmative Defense For Batman

I'll finally be seeing The Dark Knight tonight (in IMAX as God intended) and I'm pleased to be going into the experience with the cloud of Christian Bale's motherboy assault flap no longer looming overhead.

From The Sun, via Tyler Durden:

BATMAN actor Christian Bale flipped during a slanging match with his mother and sister after they told him a sob story, it was revealed last night.

Welsh-born Bale was alleged to have pushed and shoved mum Jenny, 61, and Sharon, 41. ... Jenny inflamed the situation by hurling insults about his wife Sibi, 38.
...
Sharon and Jenny, a part-time clown from Bournemouth, left the hotel on Monday morning and, on the way to their Dorset home, stopped at a Hampshire police station and reported Bale for assault.

If you're a clown, do you get into it with a man who clobbers homicidal clowns for a living (even if he's your son)?  If Bale's mother were a part-time scarecrow, this would've happened three years ago.  Pleading "Batman" ought to be enough to make this one go away.

On the other hand, maybe this was all an intricate publicity stunt.  Just the kind of buzz this scrappy little indie flick needed to get noticed.

Unacceptable Humor

Don't laugh.

Crude Continues To Slide, Senate Grows Weary Of Cheap Oil

On the September crude futures' first full day as the front month contract, oil tumbled another $4 per barrel today, leaving it trading below $125.

For those keeping score at home, that's a decline of nearly $23 per barrel (more than 15%) in 7 trading sessions.  Those fleeting $140s are looking bubblier and bubblier and the evil speculators who conspire to impoverish us with manipulated oil prices finally seem to have gotten on our side.

Plunging oil prices are great - they take the edge off of mounting inflationary pressures, they reduce a persistent economic headwind, they put more money in consumers' pockets, and they make certain stocks go simply berserk.

And just when everything's coming up Milhouse, the U.S. Senate is preparing to change the rules of oil trading, convinced that the evil speculators (the ones now rapidly bidding down prices) need to be stopped.

Yesterday the Senate voted 94-0 to proceed with debate on a bill designed to reduce speculation in the oil futures market. Megan McArdle calls the bill "monstrous," which, admittedly, would be my first guess too for any bill that passes a test vote unanimously. (There's gotta be something wrong with a bill that every single U.S. senator likes.)

Spot on.  Unless a highway is getting renamed, beware of unanimous Senate votes.

For what it's worth, the non-voting members (with the exception of Ted Kennedy, who's ill, and Barack Obama, who's congenitally unable to cast votes) were all Republicans.  Fear this bill.  There's still a possibility that 10 Senatorial fans of affordable energy will squeeze in an amendment that clears the way for offshore drilling, but the political will on the Republican side to ram this key provision through (a provision supported by 73% of the American public) has been lackluster and may well die on the vine if Harry Reid is able to procedurally snuff it out.

Previously:
Oil Down $20 In a Week
Oil Down (Yet) Again
Oil Down Again

Cato On Obama's Social Security Tax Plan

Admittedly it's a little dry, but it's a good excavation of this one corner of Obama's economic camp.  As he sprints toward the center on the more visceral kitchen table issues, bear in mind his socialist-trending tax stance continues to do right by that "Most liberal Senator" designation.

Someone needs to put Dan Mitchell together with David Zucker, to work on a raucous, screwball tax film.  I could definitely see an "uproarious fiscal romp" going viral.

(HT: Larry Kudlow)

How Much Is That Air Marshal In the Window Seat?

Any cost-benefit analysis that requires assigning a monetary value to a human life is going to be a touchy one (just ask Ford).  But a couple of academic types have attempted to probe the cost-efficacy of post-9/11 security measures.

As synopsized by the Freakonomists:

Their study, which considered the lives of airborne passengers and potential victims on the ground, found that hardened cockpit doors cost roughly $800,000 per life saved. At the same time, they calculate the air marshal program to cost roughly $180 million per life saved (assuming, that is, the marshals aren’t grounded when their names come up on the terrorist no-fly list, a problem the Washington Times reported on earlier this year).

The Federal Aviation Administration considers any innovation which costs less than $3 million per life saved to be cost-effective. By that metric, hardening cockpit doors seems to be cost effective, while the air marshals program is not.

At least the FAA came up with a less denigratory figure than Ford's $200,000.

Adjusting for inflation, though, a 1971 Pinto death would be worth nearly $1.1 million in 2008 dollars.  And real per capita income has gone up about 60% since then (assuming part of the value destruction associated with death is the loss of an income stream).  I'm not so sure the FAA's giving us much of a better deal after all...

As is, it looks like air marshals need to increase their life-saving efficiency by about 5,900% to pull their weight.

Of course there are all kinds of variables that are difficult, if not impossible, to get your arms around, no matter how coldly and calculatingly you weigh and measure the value of a human.  Might a thwarted threat save a major city or landmark from being threatened?  Might that in turn prevent triggering an economic crisis of unknowable severity?  Of course.  A single successful takedown by an air marshal could pay dividends of untold billions in unincurred financial damage, and attempting to distill that unmeasurable impact down to an expected cost, based on an event of unknowable improbability is going to land you on a pretty meaningless number.

So to stamp the air marshals (or indeed any number of costly homeland security measures) either "Worthwhile" or "Wasteful" based on the value of the expected reduction in human toll seems somewhat pointless, no matter what per human value you use.  What isn't pointless about the assessment being undertaken here though is the intelligence it yields regarding the allocation of finite homeland security resources.  Money that goes to training and dispatching air marshals could be going elsewhere - to improved chemical detection and facial recognition technologies, further refinement of the maximum size clear baggie allowed to carry your toothpaste, etc.

My point isn't that air marshals are inherently a waste of money (on the contrary, I think you can probably toss out the $180 million per life saved figure as a largely meaningless one).  Instead, I'm suggesting that this kind of analysis is probably best used as a means of allocating available resources among the various tools in the belt.  If there were nowhere else to spend aviation security dollars, go ahead and hire a bunch more marshals, irrespective of the inherently squishy price tag.  But when alternatives do exist, not all of which can be funded (and if some of those alternatives appear to be significantly more cost-effective than others), then cold, heartless bean counting becomes a somewhat more useful lifesaving tool.

So Obama, Jesus, Che, And a Terrorist Walk Into a Bar...

I'm not sure how it ends, but this is the setup for a great joke.

Hindsight Is Blurry, Astigmatic

Let's hope this puts to rest once and for all the notion that Barack "Gun Totin', Bible Quotin', FISA Votin'" Obama is some kind of flip-flopper.

In the hypothetical situation that Barack Obama could go back in time knowing what he knows now, he would still oppose the so-called "surge" of U.S. forces in Iraq.

Asked by ABC Monday if he would support the surge if he could "do it all over again," Obama said "no," adding "these kinds of hypotheticals are very difficult."

Right... except that's not a hypothetical.  That's a gimme.

The reasons it's (sometimes) valid to duck a hypothetical question are that 1) the respondent can't know all the variables that might be in place, were the approximate situation to play out in the future and it's therefore reasonable to want to avoid pigeonholing oneself to what might be construed as a blanket standpoint, and 2) in matters of the Presidency, there are countless situations in which advance knowledge of your strategic inclinations would be valuable to parties with whom you don't share interests.

A clearly invalid reason to duck a "hypothetical" is the fact that making it a reality carries the rather burdensome requirement of sending you back in time to counsel yourself.  There's no problem of precedent or strategic advantage involved in Obama asking himself the "If I had it to do all over again" question.  The only problem here is a political one.  The surge has been an unmistakable and remarkable success, forcing even the strategy's most detached critics to acknowledge that it has worked (even if they quite crazily missed the point).

But while Obama can't claim the surge didn't work, the left (the blindly pacifistic left, the ones who brought him to the dance, spurning his superficially more centrist competition) could never forgive a betrayal so central as to concede he was on the wrong side of that seminal vote.

In a nice bit of logical gymnastics, Obama seems to acknowledge that, well yes, maybe he should've gotten on board with what was clearly the advisable strategy advocated by his colleagues across the aisle.  But the Larger Truth - you're admonished to recall - is that the Bush administration is unpopular and it needed disagreeing with.  If the Bush administration supported the surge, ipso facto, the surge needed resisting.

"Hindsight is 20/20. But I think that, what I'm absolutely convinced of, is that at that time we had to change the political debate because the view of the Bush administration at that time was one that I just disagreed with," Obama said.

Just to refresh... this is the Good Judgment candidate, right?  The post-partisan one, whose preternatural intuitive powers offset the lack of experience and record of achievement or leadership?

Oil Down $20 In a Week

Goodbye, Dolly.

Oil prices tumbled Tuesday, falling about $4 a barrel as concerns eased about possible supply disruptions from Tropical Storm Dolly.

The sell-off, which came with the existing futures contract set to expire, was a throwback to last week's sharp declines and dragged crude to its lowest trading level since early June.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery fell $3.80 at $127.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the contract dropped as low as $126.26.

Of course, we can't credit Dolly for the entire drop.  After all, $126 is significantly lower than oil was trading before we'd even heard of her.

It's becoming increasingly clear that crude prices are simply (and very swiftly) trending down, offering support to the thesis that oil prices were (at least in part) exhibiting bubbly behavior.  While increasing demand outpacing increasing supply has clearly had a natural inflationary effect on prices, that doesn't mean the price increase wasn't exacerbated by self-fulfilling speculation that prices would continue upward.  Once prices turn around (thanks to an external catalyst like, say, the President revoking the executive ban on offshore drilling) some people stop making that bet, or even take the opposite bet, and prices rapidly de-froth.  Traders see the rapid de-frothing, they begin to surmise that prices were indeed bubbly, and they abandon the self-fulfilling upside bet in ever larger numbers.

For that to be true (which would in turn suggest additional cheapening in our near future), you need to see a very convincing and rather drastic price deflation in a short period of time.

You might argue we're not quite there yet, but 13% in a week is an awfully good start.

McCain's Veep Pick Close At Hand?

So it seems.

Sources close to Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign are suggesting he will reveal the name of his vice presidential selection this week while Sen. Barack Obama is getting the headlines on his foreign trip. The name of McCain's running mate has not been disclosed, but Mitt Romney has led the speculation recently.

(HT: Doubleplusundead, via AoS)

Does God Have An Obama Complex?

The Obamessiah: like Jesus, only better.

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - The (Empty) Winners' Circle

It's been 3 days since the contest officially ended and so far, we have no winners.  In prior weeks, it's taken up to several days (and occasionally more than a week) for the admins to crown the weekly winner, so I think we can likely expect at least another day or so of waiting.  It's frustrating, yes, but given the frequency and variety of technical glitches that arose during the contest, it stands to reason that CNBC would have their work cut out for them, tabulating, verifying, confirming, investigating, etc., lest they announce the winners prematurely, then realize someone had cleverly cheated or a stock split hadn't been properly accounted for.

For what it's worth, the contest website indicates only that the announcement will come this week, as in:

AND THE WINNER IS.... Tune-in to CNBC this week to find out the winner's (sic) of the Million Dollar Prize Pool.

On Friday, we compiled a bunch of finishing scores from readers, with portfolio values ranging as high $2.66 million and Week 10 gains exceeding 73%.

Whether those were enough to grab a chunk of the million dollars and/or the Superbowl prize package, we'll just have to wait and see.

To recap, our best-performing readers were:

Final portfolio values:

1. Dave Sage: $2.662 million
2. Taylor: $2.591 million
3. Khaled Helmi: $2.572 million
4. Patrick McHugh: $2.549 million
5. Jim Medlar: $2.489 million
6. Keith J: $2.476 million

Week 10 gain:

• Keith J: 73.3% 

---

See all related posts in the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive:

Week 10: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 9:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 8:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 7:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 6:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 5:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 4:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 3:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 2:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 1:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 0:  Pre-game

• Scoring Anomalies Resolved
• A New Fly In the Ointment
• Currency Trading Resumes
• More Technical Difficulties
• Prize Poll
• The Airing Of Grievances
• Technical Difficulties, Orders Cancelled

Sean Hannity: Clear Channel's Other 9-Figure Man

To quote Ari Gold, boom.

As TVNewser reported last month, Sean Hannity struck a three-way partnership deal to stay with Citadel-ABC Radio stations, but to also appear on Clear Channel stations.

The reigning "Radio Personality of the Year" will now make, "in the region of $100 million over five years," according to The Wall Street Journal. His previous deal was rumored to be for approximately $5 million a year.

The deal is set to begin in December.

Clear Channel's been busy making new deals with its stars — Rush Limbaugh's eight-year, $400 million deal was reported earlier this month.

Meanwhile, Air America has announced tentative plans to offer unlimited free coffee creamers to several of its on-air personalities and, to one randomly selected host, a grab bag of Dukakis-Bentsen tchotchkes recently found in a producer's basement.

(HT: K-Lo)

Lightworkers Don't Trifle Themselves With Details - Part II

10 More Years!

Link: sevenload.com

Lightworkers Don't Trifle Themselves With Details

Presidential nominee, Changetalker, native Hawaiian:

Throughout our history, America's confronted constantly evolving danger, from the oppression of an empire, to the lawlessness of the frontier, from the bomb that fell on Pearl Harbor, to the threat of nuclear annihilation. Americans have adapted to the threats posed by an ever-changing world.

Sounds the like the Young Gaffer just had himself a junior moment.

(HT: Weekly Standard, via LGF)

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Friday, Week 10

[Scroll to the bottom for answers to today's Bonus Bucks trivia questions.]

Here we are, folks.  The final day of the final week.  Someone's about to make a lot of money.  A few people, actually.

Since equity portfolios are only reallocated at the end of each day, there's no more stock trading to be done, but you can continue trading currencies until 4 pm.  And don't forget to answer the last 6 trivia questions to wring out those $12,000 remaining bonus bucks

For some reason, CNBC has seen fit to take down all ranking information, so we're flying somewhat blind on this final leg.  On Wednesday, they pulled down the leaderboard, but starting last night, players can't even see their own ranks, which is an unexpected frustration for those in contention for a share in the million dollar prize pool.

We've got several of those elite traders in our very midst and we hope they'll be checking in throughout the day to let us know how they're doing.  With our newly limited visibility, here's what we know.

At Wednesday's close, the top three overall traders enjoyed the following portfolio values:

1. John Collins - $2,625,827.89
2. Khaled Helmi - $2,475,577.48
3. patrick mchugh - $2,472,662.10

Readers are likely familiar with Khaled by now, as he checks in fairly regularly.  Patrick stopped by yesterday to let us know he cashed in his chips at Thursday's close and will finish with a total portfolio value of $2,548,623.96.  Khaled had an up day yesterday too, but he may want to keep his current total quiet for the time being, since the competition can still trade currencies and would probably like to know where he stands.  Hopefully he'll check in with us after the close to let us know where he finished.

Two other readers (Scott Cole and Brian) were ranked #25 and #20 at Wednesday's close, so they're also likely in contention for those top 6 spots that share in the prize pool.

For what it's worth, I'm at $2.084 million and would guess that's somewhere around #100 ($1.854 million the day before translated to #221).

A lot of our readers have seen tremendous gains this week (many up more than 40% through Thursday), thanks to skyrocketing airline stocks and two days of what turned out to be dynamite picks among the earnings reporters.  The best week-to-date performer I'm aware of in our flock is Tammi Alcorn, who'd put up 54.2% by Thursday's close.  We're rooting for Tammi to take home that Super Bowl prize package and she seems to have an excellent shot at it.

I'll be updating this post throughout the day, so check back later both for trivia answers and to see how our top players are doing.

For those of you that came upon this blog for the first time during the contest, I hope you've enjoyed your stay.  We know you have a choice in financial blogs and we hope the next time your plans call for stock market commentary, you'll choose SF again.

Anyone who hasn't chimed in by comment or email in the past and wants to stay in the loop regarding similar projects and special content in the future (or just to say hello), feel free to drop me a line.

And with apologies to site decorum, I'll go ahead and leave the tip jar open for one more day.  Thanks again to all of you who've pitched in already.

Good luck today!

Update [12:00 pm]: Well this is exciting.  It looks like we've got a horse race between two readers for the best weekly gain.  In late morning trading, Tammi was up another 5.6%, giving her a gain of 62.8% for the week, if we were to close at these prices.  Bill Bilkey (who nearly won the Week 8 prize) began the day with a week-to-date gain of 41.9%, but is up another 16.2% intraday, leaving him with a gain of 64.9% for the week.

Update [12:30 pm]:  Hold the phone.  From the comments, reader Keith reports he began the session with a week-to-date gain of 55% and is currently looking at an intraday gain of 13%, which should put him at roughly 75% for the week.  Yowza.  Tammi and Bill might still have their work cut out for them.  Keith's big week has put his total portfolio value at roughly $2.5 million, which might also put him in contention for one of the overall cash prizes.  Along with Brian, Scott, Khaled, and Patrick, we've got an official herd of contenders charging toward the finish line.

Update [2:45 pm]:  Add Dave Sage to the herd.  With 90 minute of trading remaining, Dave was showing a total portfolio value of $2.663 million.

So we've got Dave, Patrick, Khaled, Brian, Scott, and Keith all with legitimate shots at the money prizes.

Think one of them will win the big one?  Think they can take all 6?

Update [3:20 pm]:  I'm not sure how long it's going to take us to figure out where everything stands, following today's close, but I'll update this post with any details about the Week 10 and overall winners (whether gleaned from CNBC or via updates sent in from our contenders about where they finished) as soon as such info's available.

Update [3:50 pm]:  For anyone who wants to send in their final scores (and please do) and finishing ranks when available, note that your portfolio value will probably continue to fluctuate until about 4:30, since the system uses 20-minute delayed quotes and the actual closing tick often doesn't hit the board until a few minutes after 4:00.

Update [4:30 pm]:  Well, it's done.  Someone's $500,000 richer.  It's anyone's guess how long it'll take to find out who.

It's not me, though I'm pleased to have finished with a total portfolio value of $2.224 million, boosted by a very decent 6.1% today and a 50% gain for Week 10.

We've got some preliminary results rolling in from the leading contenders too...

As we already knew since he went to 100% cash yesterday, Patrick finished with $2.549 million, including bonus bucks.

Khaled has written in that he finished with $2.572 million, after adjusting for today's bonus bucks.

From the comments, Taylor finished with $2.579 million (don't know whether that's after today's bonuses - I'm going to assume people are not manually adding the bonuses in, unless they state otherwise).

Keith finishes with a total portfolio value of $2.464 million and a weekly gain of 73%.

Jim Medlar finishes with $2.489 million.

Brian Dennison finishes with $2.414 million.

Dave Sage finishes with $2.662 million.

Jim McTiernan finishes with $2.342 million.

---

I'll update these tables as results continue to come in:

Six highest known final portfolio values (including final bonus bucks):

1. Dave Sage: $2.662 million
2. Taylor: $2.591 million
3. Khaled Helmi: $2.572 million
4. Patrick McHugh: $2.549 million
5. Jim Medlar: $2.489 million
6. Keith J: $2.476 million

Highest known Week 10 gain:

• Keith J: 73.3% 

---

See all related posts in the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive:

Week 10: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 9:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 8:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 7:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 6:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 5:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 4:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 3:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 2:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 1:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 0:  Pre-game

• Scoring Anomalies Resolved
• A New Fly In the Ointment
• Currency Trading Resumes
• More Technical Difficulties
• Prize Poll
• The Airing Of Grievances
• Technical Difficulties, Orders Cancelled

To receive additional updates by e-mail, drop a line here with the word "Subscribe" in the subject header.

---

Friday July 18th

Daily Trivia:

Squawk Box:  "Question: In the July 17 Mad Money post, "Oil Down, Banks Up?" which fictional realm does Mad-man stock guru Jim Cramer reference?"

    Answer:   Bizarro World

Squawk On the Street:  "Question: Which "eye-catching" word or phrase is NOT found in managing editor Allen Wastler's Two-Way Street blog post of July 8?"

 Answer:  "Perp Walk"

The Call:  "Question: In Bob Pisani's "ETFs: An Investor's Primer" which fund-accessible nations are named?"

 Answer: Brazil

Power Lunch:  "Question: In the Fast Money post, "No Guts No Glory - Pt. II" what animal metaphor is used to describe value investing?"

    Answer: Head in a lion's mouth

Street Signs:  "Question: In a July 15 CNBC interview, Jim Rogers used which metaphor in discussing a Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac bailout?"

 Answer: Band-Aids for cancer

Closing Bell:  "Question: In the feature, "Sucker's Rally? Stock Gains Likely to Be Short-Lived" which analyst used the phrase, "sucker's rally"?"

 Answer:    Kathy Boyle

That's all folks!  No more bonus bucks to be had.  But scroll back up and refresh the page to keep tabs on our weekly and overall prize contenders to see if they manage to pull it off.

Dan Rather: Jesse Jackson Paved the Way For Bin Laden

Now that's a goof.

(What a racist.)

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Thursday, Week 10

[Scroll to the bottom for answers to today's Bonus Bucks trivia questions.]

Watch this space for today's updates, picks, and reallocation methodology.

It's the penultimate day in the portfolio challenge and we're in a full sprint to the finish.  Yesterday was a banner day for readers of this site, as our 5 earnings picks put up an average one-day gain of 21.6%.  Folks holding our prescribed airline basket did even better, with a one-day gain of 34.6%.

This managed to salvage yours truly from a recent airline-induced downward spiral, clawing back to #221 in the overall rankings with a total portfolio value of $1.827 million.  I'm delighted to have heard from many of you who saw similar surges on Wednesday.  Anyone holding that airline basket on Wednesday likely has a fighting chance at the final weekly prize (the Super Bowl package).

Most notably though, the airlines vaulted reader Khaled Helmi to an incredible #2 in the overall rankings, with a total portfolio value of $2.476 million.

As of Wednesday's close, the top 5 were thus:

1. John Collins    $2,625,827.89
2. Khaled Helmi    $2,475,577.48
3. patrick mchugh    $2,472,662.10
4. Edward Burke    $2,442,728.07
5. Jeffrey Elwyn    $2,432,237.48

Of course we're rooting for Khaled to usurp John Collins by week's end and take home the grand prize, but second place does pay a decent consolation of $250,000.

Today, we've got people in airlines, oil, and office furniture (see yesterday's post for specifics).  Be sure to check back later for updates on how these allocations are performing.

And special thanks to those of you who were so generous as to hit the tip jar I so crassly debuted yesterday.  You know... so far, there's a perfect correlation between putting out the tip jar and days with 30%+ gains.

And that's not a pattern I'm prepared to mess with.

Update:  Looks like another day of across-the-board gains for our new crop of earnings picks.  Those office furniture names did particularly well and are both showing double-digits gains (as of roughly 10 am):

• HNI Corp (HNI): +27.8%
• Knoll (KNL): +17.3%
• McMoRan (MMR): 3.5%
• Kinder Morgan (KMR): 1.8%

Update:  Sweet fancy Moses.  With oil plummeting again today, folks holding our airline basket (including this guy) are enjoying another sensational day (up almost 13% as of roughly 1:30 pm).

The very last set of picks will appear in the next update.

Update:  Here we go - the 47th and final reallocation of the contest.

Once again, there's a slew of contest-eligible names  (more than 40) reporting earnings after today's close or before tomorrow's open.  Each company's punch card has been carefully fed through the Flip-o-Matic, and out were spit 4 earnings picks for today's final trades.

In no particular order, they are Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Sensient Technologies (SXT), Evergreen Solar (ESLR), and Citizens Republic Bancorp (CRBC).

For those of you participating in the crowdsourcing experiment in pursuit of the final weekly prize (or for anyone in pursuit of the overall prize who just wants another option), we're prescribing just two allocations today.  One with the 4 earnings plays and one with our 4 favorite airlines.

Pick whichever one you like.  Or, if you've got multiple portfolios still in the hunt, why not help yourself to one of each?

• Earnings:  AMD, SXT, ESLR, CRBC
• Airlines:  CAL, AMR, UAUA, DAL

Don't forget to enter your trades by 4 pm ET.

Consider all of the above to be for entertainment purposes and not meant to be used as real-world investment recommendations.  The goals and strategies of the Portfolio Challenge are not to be confused with those of sensible investing.

---

See all related posts in the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive:

Week 10: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday
Week 9:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 8:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 7:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 6:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 5:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 4:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 3:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 2:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 1:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 0:  Pre-game

• Scoring Anomalies Resolved
• A New Fly In the Ointment
• Currency Trading Resumes
• More Technical Difficulties
• Prize Poll
• The Airing Of Grievances
• Technical Difficulties, Orders Cancelled

To receive additional updates by e-mail, drop a line here with the word "Subscribe" in the subject header.

---

Thursday July 17th

Throughout the contest, each day's answers will be at the top of the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive as soon as the questions are published, so bookmark accordingly.

Daily Trivia:

Squawk Box:  "Question: In the video feature, Best Trades Now: Healthcare, Energy & More, what does Edward Perks call "a tremendous performer"?"

 Answer: Canadian Oil Sands

Squawk On the Street:  "Question: In the post, "Crazy Money: Wells Fargo Options Rocket," Matt Nesto reported that the August $27.50 call contract gained:"

    Answer:  933%

The Call:  "Question: In Carmen Wong Ulrich's post, How to Know If Your Money Is Safe, what is her third piece of advice to depositors?"

  Answer:   Know the guidelines

Power Lunch:  "Question: In the slideshow, “10 Recession-Proof Jobs,” what is the nurse doing?"

    Answer:   Administering an injection

Street Signs:  "Question: Cramer Flashback:  In the Feb. 21 post "Stay In The Game" what does Cramer compare the excitement of speculation to?"

    Answer:  Cheesecake Fantasy

Closing Bell:  "Question: CNBC Stock Blog: On Tuesday, Jim Rogers specifically said he has been short:"

    Answer:  FNM

Waiter, There's a Bush Doctrine In My Messiah

WTF?

Democrat Barack Obama warned Wednesday about the danger of "fighting the last war" as he pledged to focus on emerging nuclear, biological and cyber threats if elected president.
...
He added, "The danger ... is that we are constantly fighting the last war, responding to the threats that have come to fruition, instead of staying one step ahead of the threats of the 21st century."

Say, Barry, that sounds an awful lot like an endorsement of the principle of waging preventive war against non-immediate, but gathering threats to national security.

In fairness to the Lightworker, he was referring not to preemption per se, but his strange fascination with surrendering our nation's nuclear defenses.  Preemptive self-disarmament, if you will, presumably followed by preemptive hugs, a preemptive light dinner (ravioli, ham, sundae bar...), and a humble request that other nuclear nations kindly follow suit.

Hope!

(HT: Ace)

Oil Down (Yet) Again

$15 per barrel in 3 days.  Simply stupefying, since it's been made so plain to us that measures like these won't yield price reductions until at least 2017.

NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil    

I wonder if this instantaneous market reaction to expectations of incremental exploration has anything to do with those evil speculators who are always conspiring to impoverish us with their efficient futures markets...

Previously:  Oil Down Again

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Wednesday, Week 10

[Scroll to the bottom for answers to today's Bonus Bucks trivia questions.]

Watch this space for today's updates, picks, and reallocation methodology.

Meanwhile, as we enter the back half of the final week of the contest, I'm turning the tables on you and rolling out a perfectly tactless tip jar.

It's been a gas hosting this daily forum over these last 10 weeks and I'm terribly appreciative of all of you who have been reading, commenting, celebrating, commiserating, and sharing strategies.  If you've managed to squeeze any value or enjoyment out of these 50+ posts, daily trading ideas, and answers to nearly 300 trivia questions (or if you're looking for an easy way to pay down an unrelated karma debt), clicking the link below is sure to brighten both of our days.

It should take about 2 minutes, it's completely safe, and it'll help defray the early production costs of "CNBC Portfolio Challenge: The Motion Picture" (Jim Cramer is attached to direct, Eddie Murphy is slated to headline as the entire Hausse family).

Thanks!

---

Update:  From the comments, Kathryn notes it's still possible to see a partial leaderboard, if you go to your portfolio manager, select any portfolio, then click Top Players in the Contest Extras box in the lower right corner of the screen.

The top 5 players (overall) are:

1. Edward Burke - $2,307,453.35
2. Holly Williams - $2,299,881.04
3. William Guarisco - $2,273,951.78
4. Ashley Hausse - $2,156,184.10
5. Les Hausse - $2,131,695.04

Update:  Looks like this was the right day to pass the hat.  Of the 5 earnings plays I highlighted yesterday, all 5 moved significantly higher, with 3 posting one-day gains of more than 25%:

• Wells Fargo (WFC): +32.8%
• Delta Air Lines (DAL): +26.6%
• First Midwest Bancorp (FMBI): +26.5%
• RLI Corp (RLI): +13.1%
• Piper Jaffray (PJC): +9.1%

Today's picks will appear in the next update.

Update:  There are at least 60 contest-eligible names reporting earnings after today's close or before tomorrow's open.  We're going to focus on 4 - two energy companies (McMoRan Exploration and Kinder Morgan) and two office furniture companies (HNI Corp and Knoll).

For those of you participating in the crowdsourcing experiment in pursuit of the final weekly prize, let's go with the following allocations, according to the last digit of your phone number:

• 1-3:  HNI, KNL, CHK, GDP (oil, including earnings reporters)
• 4-6:  CAL, AMR, UAUA, DAL (airlines)
• 7-0:  HNI, KNL, MMR, KMR (all earnings reporters, oil and furniture)

Important:  If you're using more than one portfolio for this project, kindly allocate the first portfolio according to the surname initial scheme, the next portfolio to the allocation directly beneath it, and so on, until you've reallocated all participating portfolios.

For example: If your phone number ends in 7, and you're using 2 portfolios, your allocations would be:

• 7-0:  HNI, KNL, MMR,  KMR
• 1-3:  HNI, KNL, CHK, GDP

In all cases, each position should be set at 25%.  Don't forget to enter your trades by 4 pm ET.

Consider all of the above to be for entertainment purposes and not meant to be used as real-world investment recommendations.  The goals and strategies of the Portfolio Challenge are not to be confused with those of sensible investing.

---

See all related posts in the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive:

Week 10: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday
Week 9:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 8:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 7:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 6:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 5:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 4:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 3:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 2:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 1:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 0:  Pre-game

• Scoring Anomalies Resolved
• A New Fly In the Ointment
• Currency Trading Resumes
• More Technical Difficulties
• Prize Poll
• The Airing Of Grievances
• Technical Difficulties, Orders Cancelled

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Wednesday July 16th

Throughout the contest, each day's answers will be at the top of the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive as soon as the questions are published, so bookmark accordingly.

Daily Trivia:

Squawk Box:  "Question: According to the Stock Blog post, "Stocks That Gain on Hurricanes" which company had "just announced" a share buyback?"

  Answer:  Toro Company

Squawk On the Street:  "Question: In the CNBC.com feature, "Can You Beat The Market With This ETF Portfolio?", which ETF is weighted 30%?"

  Answer:  SPY

The Call:  "Question: According to the Featured Slideshow, "10 World Famous Gemstones", which ruler owned the "cursed" Koh-i-Noor diamond?"

  Answer:  Queen Victoria

Power Lunch:  "Question: According to the CNBC.com special report, Powering the Planet, which is the "biggest" U.S. geothermal player?"

  Answer:  All of the above

Street Signs:  "Question: According to a By The Numbers post, "Biggest One Day Drops in Oil", how much did the S&P Energy Sector drop Tuesday?"

  Answer:  Nearly 3 percent

Closing Bell:  "Question: In the Cramer blog post, "How to Survive the Banking Meltdown", which bank ranked "Almost as Bad as the Worst"?"

  Answer:  Washington Mutual

 

Oil Down Again

For the second day in a row, oil prices are plunging.  The timing is fortunate, since this morning's retail inflation report came in a little hot, suggesting high energy prices are beginning to infect prices generally.

Still, with front month crude futures touching $132 per barrel, they've fallen as much as $14 (almost 10%) from yesterday's trading high.

If we didn't know better (thanks to various legislators assuring us there will be no impact for the foreseeable future), we might wonder whether oil traders were reacting rationally to the President lifting the executive ban on offshore drilling two days ago.

If we were given to such fanciful whimsies as efficient markets and supply and demand, we might further wonder how low prices could go if Congress were to follow suit and lift the legislative ban.

Happily, Nan and Barry won't stand for it, so we don't need to waste our time pondering such trifles.

What Is the Sound Of One Brain Cell Firing?

Hint: It's the same sound Chris Matthews makes when he tries to screak loud enough to drown out his own cognitive dissonance.

You Know Damn Well I Like Brit Hume!

Pity.

Brit Hume, a top anchor and executive with Fox News since the channel was launched 12 years ago, plans to step down at year's end. But he won't disappear entirely.

Sources familiar with the situation say that Hume, 65, will give up his job as Washington managing editor and anchor of "Special Report." They say he is near a deal to continue with Fox in a senior statesman role, not unlike that of Tom Brokaw at NBC, for roughly 100 days a year.

(HT: HA Headlines)

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Tuesday, Week 10

[Scroll to the bottom for answers to today's Bonus Bucks trivia questions.]

Watch this space for today's updates, picks, and reallocation methodology.

Oddly, it looks like CNBC has decided to obscure the details of the leaderboard from us for the last few days of the contest.  Replacing the scoreboard is a "winner's (sic) board", complete with lovely headshots of the weekly winners, but no Week 10 or overall rankings or standings.

Needless to say, this changes things somewhat for anyone vying for one of the top 6 spots who planned to incorporate the leaders' latest scores into their ongoing optimization of their own risk appetite.  Unclear whether that was deliberate, and if so, what the rationale for this unannounced change in the gameplay might be.

Update:  Today's reallocation is going to be an exciting one.  We've been playing airlines and earnings reporters all contest long, but today, they're one and the same.  Delta will report tomorrow before the closing bell and if you're looking for some last minute professional-grade volatility to make a final push for the leaderboard, I'm not sure you can do better than to load up on airlines today.

For a change, our airline basket is already doing well today, with oil having tumbled $10/barrel.  But these stocks are still down unfathomably large amounts year-to-date and could be poised for a heckuva day, now that they'll have an actual earnings catalyst to focus renewed attention on their valuation.

That said, there are many contest-eligible stocks reporting earnings after today's close and before tomorrow's open, including a handful of financials which look pretty interesting, in the wake of the recent sell-off.  For our participating portfolios, then, here are our reallocations for this afternoon, based on the day of the week you were born:

• Mon-Wed:  CAL, UAUA, AMR, DAL (airlines)
• Thu-Fri:  GMXR, CLR, CHK , DAL (oil operations + Delta)
• Sat-Sun:  FMBI, PJC, WFC, RLI (financials)

Important:  If you're using more than one portfolio for this project, kindly allocate the first portfolio according to the birthday scheme, the next portfolio to the allocation directly beneath it, and so on, until you've reallocated all participating portfolios.

For example: If you were born on a Saturday, and you're using 2 portfolios, your allocations would be:

• Sat-Sun:  FMBI, PJC, WFC, RLI
• Mon-Wed:  CAL, UAUA, AMR, DAL

In all cases, each position should be set at 25%.

Consider all of the above to be for entertainment purposes and not meant to be used as real-world investment recommendations.  The goals and strategies of the Portfolio Challenge are not to be confused with those of sensible investing.

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See all related posts in the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive:

Week 10: Monday, Tuesday
Week 9:  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 8:   Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 7:   Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 6:   Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 5:   Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 4:   Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 3:   Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 2:   Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 1:   Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Week 0:   Pre-game

• Scoring Anomalies Resolved
• A New Fly In the Ointment
• Currency Trading Resumes
• More Technical Difficulties
• Prize Poll
• The Airing Of Grievances
• Technical Difficulties, Orders Cancelled

To receive additional updates by e-mail, drop a line here with the word "Subscribe" in the subject header.

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Tuesday July 15th

Throughout the contest, each day's answers will be at the top of the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive as soon as the questions are published, so bookmark accordingly.

Daily Trivia:

Squawk Box:  "Question: In the Stock Blog post, "Five-Star Picks: Fuel and Fertilizer", which stock supposedly has "at least 50 percent upside"?"

    Answer:  Potash

Squawk On the Street:  "Question: In Jim Goldman's preview, "This Week's Tech Earnings Bonanza", what is the FIRST stock mentioned?"

    Answer:  Alcoa

The Call:  "Question: Web Video Hunt: In Monday's CNBC.com video, "Commodities Explosion", which precious-metals play was John Roque's pick?"

    Answer:  GoldCorp

Power Lunch:  "Question: On Monday, Goldman Sachs' Abby Joseph Cohen told CNBC that the fair value of the S&P 500 is:"

    Answer:  1,400

Street Signs:  "Question: Picks & Pans: In "Options Bubble on Financial Trouble," whose "implied volatility" shot up 101% Monday?"

    Answer:  WaMu

Closing Bell:  "Question: In Monday's video roundup "Best Trades Now: Financials, Medical Suppliers & More" which one is a 10-day earnings reactor?"

    Answer:  Harley-Davidson

You Have Won Second Prize In a Beauty Contest!

By you I mean I.

And by second I mean third.

(And by beauty I mean Gizmodo photoshop.)

Previously: Mahmoud the Fauxtographer

More Unterrible Financial News

This is what oil plummeting more than $10 per barrel in about 2.5 hours looks like.

Update: Prices have recovered a few bucks, but it was still the steepest drop in 17 years.

One of the Day's Less Depressing Financial News Items

Market sell-off got you down?  Unable to find solace in the consolation that core wholesale inflation came in cooler than expected (despite headline inflation coming in hotter)?

Perhaps you can take some measure of comfort in the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, released this morning.  The monthly report from the New York Fed gauges sentiment among manufacturers about general business conditions.  At -4.9, it held negative for a third consecutive month, though it improved from June's reading of -8.7 and handily surpassed expectations of -8.0.

Urr-Eee, Urr-Eee

Additional virtue of New Kind Of Politician revealed: Post-Consistency.

WASHINGTON - Barack Obama's campaign scrubbed his presidential Web site over the weekend to remove criticism of the U.S. troop "surge" in Iraq, the Daily News has learned.

The presumed Democratic nominee replaced his Iraq issue Web page, which had described the surge as a "problem" that had barely reduced violence.

(HT: Ed Morrissey)

Previously: Out: Post-Partisan. In: Post-Economic

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Update:  Psst, Barry!  You missed a spot.

Update:  Gutfeld uncovers two more Obamian Virtues: a chiseled Post-erior and cherubic Post-erity.