Getting Mitt On the Record

Everyone seems to have agreed to agree with each other that Tim Pawlenty will officially become McCain's VP pick Friday morning.

As far as I can tell, this results from 1) Pawlenty being the common element on just about everyone's ostensibly (if dubiously) "insider-informed" short lists, 2) the supposed burning and enduring hatred between McCain and Romney, 3) the fact that Pawlenty was a McCain 2000 supporter, and 4) the fact that Pawlenty has been burning up the cable news networks over the last 48 hours.

With a few hours before the announcement comes down, I'm going to go ahead and make the counterargument (i.e. the "It's still Mitt" counterargument).

To be clear, Pawlenty would be a very agreeable pick (experience as a political executive, credible conservative credentials), as would Sarah Palin (ditto).  The others being tossed around (Lieberman, Ridge, Fiorina, et al) don't seem so realistic.

That said, between Romney and Pawlenty, I think it remains fairly clear that Romney is the better choice (defining "better" as "more likely to improve the chances of November success").

Mitt's far better known nationally, he's superlatively long in McCain's shortest suits (finance/economy/executive leadership), he may help win not only Michigan, but multiple purpling southwest states thanks to his ready-made army of Mormon fans (versus the historically dangerous proposition that Pawlenty might swing 1984-proof Minnesota), he was belatedly, briefly, but enthusiastically embraced by the conservative wing of the party in the final stages of the primary contest, and his runner-up status during the primary means millions of Republican voters have already pulled the lever for Mitt, offering McCain the opportunity for (an admittedly more muted version of) the dream-team ticket that Obama snubbed by not bringing Hillary on board.

This isn't to say I'm particularly assured that Mitt will be the pick.  But the building Pawlenty consensus seems awfully premature and inadequately founded to me, especially given how tight-lipped the McCain campaign has managed to keep in recent days.

God only knows what McCain might do.  I'll concede that rational Republicans can disagree on whether Romney is the clear best choice among the front-runners (both electorally and ideologically).  And I'll definitely concede that - even if McCain does see Mitt as objectively the best choice - he might well buck that expectation simply for sake of doing so and further burnishing his maverickism, at the expense of all other political ends.  (I'm just going by McCain's decades of legislative choices here...)

But ultimately, I suspect McCain is a man who (perhaps rightfully) feels he deserves a real shot at the Presidency, having been relatively narrowly spurned 8 years ago.  Having finally nabbed that bid at a relatively advanced age, one has to suppose that McCain is interested in maximizing his odds of making good on this long-sought opportunity.

To me, it seems very likely that the sum total of selection advice McCain is getting these days is steering him toward Governor Romney.  So if he's truly fighting to win, I have to think Romney is still the odds-on favorite, despite the unconvincingly gelling Pawlenty consensus or the prospect of an "I betcha didn't see that coming!" pick.

Of course I could be (and probably am) wrong.  If you offered me either side of an even-odds bet that Romney will get the nod, I'd bet against.  Still, if I had to bet on one candidate, Mitt's still my guy.

(For reference, Romney VP contracts recently shot up to 69 cents on the dollar at Intrade.  I'd short 'em if I was into flouting the Wire Act.)