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CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Tuesday, Week 1

[Scroll to the bottom for answers to today's Bonus Bucks trivia questions.]

Watch this space for today's updates, picks, and reallocation methodology...

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Well, it turns out those triple-leveraged ETFs we were eyeing are indeed ineligible.  Despite meeting the  minimum trading volume and share price requirements, the fact that they've existed for less than 100 days means they don't technically have a 100-day average volume.

Ah, well.

The double-leveraged funds will have to suffice.  Yesterday, we split the group evenly into ultrabulls and ultrabears (by birth year).  Today, we'll be doing precisely the same thing, using precisely the same ETFs (only a different splitting methodology).  The idea is that whichever half of yesterday's portfolios wind up gaining today (the ultrabulls if the market goes up and the ultrabulls if it goes down) will in turn be split in half and reallocated evenly into the ultrabull and ultrabear basket for tomorrow.  Then we repeat twice more, giving some sub-sub-sub-subset four consecutive days of ultra-gains by Friday, which will hopefully catapult someone into the first weekly winner's circle.

If it turns out you've got one or more portfolios in the winning group, to determine today's reallocation, you'll need to inspect your driver's license or non-driver ID.  If you discover you were born between January-June, you're in the ultrabull group.  July-December is today's ultrabear group.

If you have just one surviving portfolio, allocate it according to the birth month scheme.  If you've got more than one portfolio holding yesterday's winning group, split those winners evenly between the ultrabull and the ultrabear, giving the extra to your designated group if it's an odd number of portfolios.

Ultrabull Basket: SSO, UYG, DDM, QLD

Ultrabear Basket: SDS, SKF, DXD, QID

Don't worry if you're not yet seeing any movement in your portfolio values.  Yesterday's picks weren't added to your portfolios until after yesterday's close, so any movement in those stocks/ETFs won't kick in until after today's close (and possibly won't wash through your on-screen reporting until tomorrow).

That said, as soon as folks start seeing results (last time around, you could view limited intraday gain/loss data in real time), let me know how you're doing.

Update:  It's looking like an up day, so (assuming that holds), anyone with participating portfolios will want to address the ones they currently have in the ultrabull basket.  If you've got just one ultrabull portfolio, determine whether to keep it there or switch to ultrabear according to birth month (Jan-Jun = ultrabull; Jul-Dec = ultrabear).  If you've got two, leave one ultrabull and change the other to ultrabear.  If you've got three, leave one bull, change one to bear, and determine the third according to birth month.  And so on.

Update:  Stocks are back to being mixed, so this day could go either way. You can still handle all of your participating portfolios, without knowing how today will shape up.  As described above, reallocate your existing bull portfolios such that half of them remain bulls and half become bears.  Then reallocate your existing bear portfolios such that half of them remain bears and half become bulls.  (Again, in the case of an odd number of bull or bear portfolios, give the extra to your birthday-designated basket.)

You'll still wind up with roughly half bulls and half bears among your portfolios, but it's important to undertake this reallocation, such that whichever group wins out today will be split evenly going into tomorrow.

Update:  Stocks took a negative turn in afternoon trading, so make sure both that half of your current bull portfolios are switched to bears AND that half of your current bears are switched to bulls.

To clarify, this means that if you're participating with 4 portfolios (2 of which are currently in the bear group and 2 of which are in the bull group), you would switch one of the bear portfolios into the bull group (leaving the other in the bear group) and switch one of the bull portfolios into the bear group (leaving the other in the bull group.

It does not mean that you co-mingle bull and bear picks in the same portfolio.  Each portfolio should always remain purely bear or purely bull.

Update:  Well, most major indices managed to close higher, but the Nasdaq was virtually unchanged and financials finished lower, so neither of our leveraged baskets moved much (ultrabulls up 0.15%, ultrabears down 0.73%).

The good news is that this is a real rarity in the current market.  On almost any other day, one of these groups would've soared while the other tanked (which is what we're looking for).  Fingers crossed for a more volatile session tomorrow!

Consider all of the above to be for entertainment purposes and not meant to be used as real-world investment recommendations.  The goals and strategies of the Portfolio Challenge are not to be confused with those of sensible investing.

---

See all related posts in the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive.

Week 1:  Monday, Tuesday
Pre-game:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge Is Back, Stragety Primer

To receive additional updates by e-mail, drop a line here with the word "Subscribe" in the subject header.

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Tuesday November 18th

Throughout the contest, each day's answers will be at the top of the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive as soon as the questions are published, so bookmark accordingly.

Daily Trivia:

Squawk Box:  Question: According to the Stock Blog post, Options Action: Dangerous Videogame Play, what must happen for the break-even trade?

    Answer:  Stock must drop more than 8%

Squawk On the Street:  Question:  In Friday's Stop Trading! segment, Trouble for Coal, Jim Cramer said which energy stock has a "double whammy"?

    Answer:  Kinder Morgan

The Call:  Question:  In the Stock Blog post, Five Stocks to Fight The Recession, how does Manuel Schiffres label Pfizer?

    Answer:  All of the above

Power Lunch:  Question: In Vince Farrell's blog post, Lower Oil Price Equals A Tax Cut, the CIO offers what scientific view of petroleum "info"?

    Answer:  "dissection"

Street Signs:  Question: Enjoy our Holiday Cigars slideshow. Now name the only 2-time winner of Cigar Aficionado's No. 1 Cigar of the Year.

    Answer:  The Padrón Family

Closing Bell:  Question:  In "Apple Investors' Hope for the Holidays" which "long-time" tech industry analyst does Jim Goldman refer to?

    Answer:  Gene Munster

Weekly Quiz:

Question:  The Dow Jones Industrial Average consist of:

    Answer:  30 stocks

Comments

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Tuesday, Week 1

[Scroll to the bottom for answers to today's Bonus Bucks trivia questions.]

Watch this space for today's updates, picks, and reallocation methodology...

---

Well, it turns out those triple-leveraged ETFs we were eyeing are indeed ineligible.  Despite meeting the  minimum trading volume and share price requirements, the fact that they've existed for less than 100 days means they don't technically have a 100-day average volume.

Ah, well.

The double-leveraged funds will have to suffice.  Yesterday, we split the group evenly into ultrabulls and ultrabears (by birth year).  Today, we'll be doing precisely the same thing, using precisely the same ETFs (only a different splitting methodology).  The idea is that whichever half of yesterday's portfolios wind up gaining today (the ultrabulls if the market goes up and the ultrabulls if it goes down) will in turn be split in half and reallocated evenly into the ultrabull and ultrabear basket for tomorrow.  Then we repeat twice more, giving some sub-sub-sub-subset four consecutive days of ultra-gains by Friday, which will hopefully catapult someone into the first weekly winner's circle.

If it turns out you've got one or more portfolios in the winning group, to determine today's reallocation, you'll need to inspect your driver's license or non-driver ID.  If you discover you were born between January-June, you're in the ultrabull group.  July-December is today's ultrabear group.

If you have just one surviving portfolio, allocate it according to the birth month scheme.  If you've got more than one portfolio holding yesterday's winning group, split those winners evenly between the ultrabull and the ultrabear, giving the extra to your designated group if it's an odd number of portfolios.

Ultrabull Basket: SSO, UYG, DDM, QLD

Ultrabear Basket: SDS, SKF, DXD, QID

Don't worry if you're not yet seeing any movement in your portfolio values.  Yesterday's picks weren't added to your portfolios until after yesterday's close, so any movement in those stocks/ETFs won't kick in until after today's close (and possibly won't wash through your on-screen reporting until tomorrow).

That said, as soon as folks start seeing results (last time around, you could view limited intraday gain/loss data in real time), let me know how you're doing.

Update:  It's looking like an up day, so (assuming that holds), anyone with participating portfolios will want to address the ones they currently have in the ultrabull basket.  If you've got just one ultrabull portfolio, determine whether to keep it there or switch to ultrabear according to birth month (Jan-Jun = ultrabull; Jul-Dec = ultrabear).  If you've got two, leave one ultrabull and change the other to ultrabear.  If you've got three, leave one bull, change one to bear, and determine the third according to birth month.  And so on.

Update:  Stocks are back to being mixed, so this day could go either way. You can still handle all of your participating portfolios, without knowing how today will shape up.  As described above, reallocate your existing bull portfolios such that half of them remain bulls and half become bears.  Then reallocate your existing bear portfolios such that half of them remain bears and half become bulls.  (Again, in the case of an odd number of bull or bear portfolios, give the extra to your birthday-designated basket.)

You'll still wind up with roughly half bulls and half bears among your portfolios, but it's important to undertake this reallocation, such that whichever group wins out today will be split evenly going into tomorrow.

Update:  Stocks took a negative turn in afternoon trading, so make sure both that half of your current bull portfolios are switched to bears AND that half of your current bears are switched to bulls.

To clarify, this means that if you're participating with 4 portfolios (2 of which are currently in the bear group and 2 of which are in the bull group), you would switch one of the bear portfolios into the bull group (leaving the other in the bear group) and switch one of the bull portfolios into the bear group (leaving the other in the bull group.

It does not mean that you co-mingle bull and bear picks in the same portfolio.  Each portfolio should always remain purely bear or purely bull.

Update:  Well, most major indices managed to close higher, but the Nasdaq was virtually unchanged and financials finished lower, so neither of our leveraged baskets moved much (ultrabulls up 0.15%, ultrabears down 0.73%).

The good news is that this is a real rarity in the current market.  On almost any other day, one of these groups would've soared while the other tanked (which is what we're looking for).  Fingers crossed for a more volatile session tomorrow!

Consider all of the above to be for entertainment purposes and not meant to be used as real-world investment recommendations.  The goals and strategies of the Portfolio Challenge are not to be confused with those of sensible investing.

---

See all related posts in the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive.

Week 1:  Monday, Tuesday
Pre-game:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge Is Back, Stragety Primer

To receive additional updates by e-mail, drop a line here with the word "Subscribe" in the subject header.

---

Tuesday November 18th

Throughout the contest, each day's answers will be at the top of the CNBC Portfolio Challenge archive as soon as the questions are published, so bookmark accordingly.

Daily Trivia:

Squawk Box:  Question: According to the Stock Blog post, Options Action: Dangerous Videogame Play, what must happen for the break-even trade?

    Answer:  Stock must drop more than 8%

Squawk On the Street:  Question:  In Friday's Stop Trading! segment, Trouble for Coal, Jim Cramer said which energy stock has a "double whammy"?

    Answer:  Kinder Morgan

The Call:  Question:  In the Stock Blog post, Five Stocks to Fight The Recession, how does Manuel Schiffres label Pfizer?

    Answer:  All of the above

Power Lunch:  Question: In Vince Farrell's blog post, Lower Oil Price Equals A Tax Cut, the CIO offers what scientific view of petroleum "info"?

    Answer:  "dissection"

Street Signs:  Question: Enjoy our Holiday Cigars slideshow. Now name the only 2-time winner of Cigar Aficionado's No. 1 Cigar of the Year.

    Answer:  The Padrón Family

Closing Bell:  Question:  In "Apple Investors' Hope for the Holidays" which "long-time" tech industry analyst does Jim Goldman refer to?

    Answer:  Gene Munster

Weekly Quiz:

Question:  The Dow Jones Industrial Average consist of:

    Answer:  30 stocks