Suitably Flip

NY-20 Results Thread

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Polls closed at 9:00, but 30 minutes later, only 1 of the 10 counties shows us anything and they've got a scant 2% of precincts reporting.

For what it's worth, those several voters broke for Scott Murphy (D) over Jim Tedisco (R) 72-28.

Via Drew at Ace's, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs has been busy lowering expectations today.

(White House Spokesman Robert) Gibbs echoed pretty much the basic Democratic talking points analysis/spin of the race: “Republicans have a significant voter registration advantage -- 71,000 more voters are registered Republicans than are registered Democrats.

“Kirsten Gillibrand was the first Democrat to hold NY-20 in 28 years when she upset then-Representative John Sweeny in 2006. Sweeny faced significant ethical issues. Even though Obama won the district in 2008, it had previously been solidly Republican. President Bush won NY-20 in both 2000 and 2004. In fact, NY-20 was one of only six districts in New York State voting for President Bush in 2000, and one of only nine supporting him in 2004.”

The Albany Times-Union has the latest numbers.

Update (9:40):  Much more now.

Essex: Murphy (58-42, with 47% in)
Greene: Tedisco (56-44, with 58% in)
Rensselaer: Tedisco (52-48, with 20% in)
Saratoga: Tedisco (58-42, with 25% in)
Washington: Murphy (57-43, with 85% in)
Warren: Murphy (56-44, with 45% in)

Update (9:43): Via Hot Air, the Saratogian offers the district-wide totals.

With 63% of precincts in, Tedisco leads by 4 votes (46,969-46,965).

Update (9:45):

With 68% in, Tedisco's lead expands to 856 votes (51,415-50,559), still less than 1%.

Update (9:50):

With 71% in, Tedisco leads by 951 (54,201-53,250).

Roughly 1/3 of the remaining precincts are in Saratoga County, where Tedisco is running 10 points ahead.  Fewer (but still a lot) are in Columbia County, where Murphy is running 12 points ahead.  Still very much up in the air.

Update (9:55):

With 81% in, Tedisco leads by 1,050 (63,197-62,147).  Still a lot of precincts in Saratoga and Columbia yet to come in.  The only other region with meaningful uncounted votes is Delaware County, where Tedisco is running 6 points ahead.

I'm going to give the edge to Tedisco, but by a nose.  Should be well under 1,500 votes (out of roughly 150,000) when all is said and done.

Update (10:05):

With 83% in, Tedisco leads by 1,112.  All remaining precincts come from those three counties.  Extrapolating from the vote shares in those counties thus far, the remaining precincts would increment the votes like so:

Saratoga: 1,186 net votes for Tedisco
Columbia: 1,069 net votes for Murphy
Delaware: 218 net votes for Tedisco
Total: 335 net votes for Tedisco

That'd give Tedisco the win by 1,447.

I don't how many provisionals, absentees, or other special votes are not reflected in tonight's reported totals.

Update (10:12):

With 96% in, Tedisco leads by just 102 votes (a slug of Columbia precincts just reported).  Still 14 precincts to go in Saratoga (Tedisco country) and 8 in Columbia (Murphy country).

Update (10:16):

Insane. With 97% in, Tedisco leads by 30 votes (0.02%).  11 of 19 remaining precincts are in Saratoga.

Update (10:18):

With 99.5% in, Murphy now leads by 252 votes.  All 3 remaining precincts are in Saratoga.

Based on the rest of the county's results, those precincts would give Tedisco just 68 net votes.

Update (10:20):

With just one precinct to go, Murphy's lead drops to 81 votes.

Update (10:40):

With 100% reporting, it's Murphy by 65 votes.

With thousands of absentees (not to mention months of exciting court battles!) to wade through, this is as close to a dead-heat as imaginable (50.02%-49.98%).

In other words, you can quit holding your breath.

Somewhere between 6,000 and 10,000 military and absentee ballots remain uncounted, according to the Associated Press, and overseas absentee ballots will continue be accepted until April 13. In short, no winner will be declared any time soon.

Comments

NY-20 Results Thread

[Scroll for updates]

Polls closed at 9:00, but 30 minutes later, only 1 of the 10 counties shows us anything and they've got a scant 2% of precincts reporting.

For what it's worth, those several voters broke for Scott Murphy (D) over Jim Tedisco (R) 72-28.

Via Drew at Ace's, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs has been busy lowering expectations today.

(White House Spokesman Robert) Gibbs echoed pretty much the basic Democratic talking points analysis/spin of the race: “Republicans have a significant voter registration advantage -- 71,000 more voters are registered Republicans than are registered Democrats.

“Kirsten Gillibrand was the first Democrat to hold NY-20 in 28 years when she upset then-Representative John Sweeny in 2006. Sweeny faced significant ethical issues. Even though Obama won the district in 2008, it had previously been solidly Republican. President Bush won NY-20 in both 2000 and 2004. In fact, NY-20 was one of only six districts in New York State voting for President Bush in 2000, and one of only nine supporting him in 2004.”

The Albany Times-Union has the latest numbers.

Update (9:40):  Much more now.

Essex: Murphy (58-42, with 47% in)
Greene: Tedisco (56-44, with 58% in)
Rensselaer: Tedisco (52-48, with 20% in)
Saratoga: Tedisco (58-42, with 25% in)
Washington: Murphy (57-43, with 85% in)
Warren: Murphy (56-44, with 45% in)

Update (9:43): Via Hot Air, the Saratogian offers the district-wide totals.

With 63% of precincts in, Tedisco leads by 4 votes (46,969-46,965).

Update (9:45):

With 68% in, Tedisco's lead expands to 856 votes (51,415-50,559), still less than 1%.

Update (9:50):

With 71% in, Tedisco leads by 951 (54,201-53,250).

Roughly 1/3 of the remaining precincts are in Saratoga County, where Tedisco is running 10 points ahead.  Fewer (but still a lot) are in Columbia County, where Murphy is running 12 points ahead.  Still very much up in the air.

Update (9:55):

With 81% in, Tedisco leads by 1,050 (63,197-62,147).  Still a lot of precincts in Saratoga and Columbia yet to come in.  The only other region with meaningful uncounted votes is Delaware County, where Tedisco is running 6 points ahead.

I'm going to give the edge to Tedisco, but by a nose.  Should be well under 1,500 votes (out of roughly 150,000) when all is said and done.

Update (10:05):

With 83% in, Tedisco leads by 1,112.  All remaining precincts come from those three counties.  Extrapolating from the vote shares in those counties thus far, the remaining precincts would increment the votes like so:

Saratoga: 1,186 net votes for Tedisco
Columbia: 1,069 net votes for Murphy
Delaware: 218 net votes for Tedisco
Total: 335 net votes for Tedisco

That'd give Tedisco the win by 1,447.

I don't how many provisionals, absentees, or other special votes are not reflected in tonight's reported totals.

Update (10:12):

With 96% in, Tedisco leads by just 102 votes (a slug of Columbia precincts just reported).  Still 14 precincts to go in Saratoga (Tedisco country) and 8 in Columbia (Murphy country).

Update (10:16):

Insane. With 97% in, Tedisco leads by 30 votes (0.02%).  11 of 19 remaining precincts are in Saratoga.

Update (10:18):

With 99.5% in, Murphy now leads by 252 votes.  All 3 remaining precincts are in Saratoga.

Based on the rest of the county's results, those precincts would give Tedisco just 68 net votes.

Update (10:20):

With just one precinct to go, Murphy's lead drops to 81 votes.

Update (10:40):

With 100% reporting, it's Murphy by 65 votes.

With thousands of absentees (not to mention months of exciting court battles!) to wade through, this is as close to a dead-heat as imaginable (50.02%-49.98%).

In other words, you can quit holding your breath.

Somewhere between 6,000 and 10,000 military and absentee ballots remain uncounted, according to the Associated Press, and overseas absentee ballots will continue be accepted until April 13. In short, no winner will be declared any time soon.