Suitably Flip

Obama's Toxic Coattails

The White House has adamantly disavowed blame for Creigh Deeds' gubernatorial loss in Virginia, noting that the President didn't do much to help the hapless candidate (nor did he, at least compared with the abundant and visible support thrown behind Jon Corzine in New Jersey).

And for that comparative snubbing - it turns out - Deeds should be grateful.  Any more "help" from the erstwhile Mr. Popular, and McDonnell might've run up the score on Deeds even worse.

We tested the impact of the Obama endorsement — 24% said they were more likely to vote for Deeds, while 32% were less likely.  The minus eight increment on that can not be encouraging to the White House.
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Finally, we tested a simple agree/disagree: “Creigh Deeds’ policies are too close to the policies of President Barack Obama.”  Fully 52% agreed and only 30% disagreed.  By intensity, 30% strongly agreed and only 9% strongly disagreed.  Revisionists on the left are blaming Deeds for not embracing Obama enough, but Virginia voters did not agree.  Among Independents, it was 52% agree/28% disagree.

The Bottom Line

Obama was not the deciding factor in the Virginia campaign.  However, he certainly was MUCH more than a non-factor.  Concern about his policies overreaching permeated to a gubernatorial campaign and helped widen the size of McDonnell’s win.  It allowed the campaign to focus on issues that hadn’t been working in recent years for Republican candidates.  Concern about Obama’s policies on spending, taxes, and jobs allowed McDonnell to thoroughly dominate those issues.  The checks and balances message is a key one, but the bigger lesson about Obama’s impact on Virginia is that his policies have put fiscal and economic messages back into play for Republicans.

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Obama's Toxic Coattails

The White House has adamantly disavowed blame for Creigh Deeds' gubernatorial loss in Virginia, noting that the President didn't do much to help the hapless candidate (nor did he, at least compared with the abundant and visible support thrown behind Jon Corzine in New Jersey).

And for that comparative snubbing - it turns out - Deeds should be grateful.  Any more "help" from the erstwhile Mr. Popular, and McDonnell might've run up the score on Deeds even worse.

We tested the impact of the Obama endorsement — 24% said they were more likely to vote for Deeds, while 32% were less likely.  The minus eight increment on that can not be encouraging to the White House.
...
Finally, we tested a simple agree/disagree: “Creigh Deeds’ policies are too close to the policies of President Barack Obama.”  Fully 52% agreed and only 30% disagreed.  By intensity, 30% strongly agreed and only 9% strongly disagreed.  Revisionists on the left are blaming Deeds for not embracing Obama enough, but Virginia voters did not agree.  Among Independents, it was 52% agree/28% disagree.

The Bottom Line

Obama was not the deciding factor in the Virginia campaign.  However, he certainly was MUCH more than a non-factor.  Concern about his policies overreaching permeated to a gubernatorial campaign and helped widen the size of McDonnell’s win.  It allowed the campaign to focus on issues that hadn’t been working in recent years for Republican candidates.  Concern about Obama’s policies on spending, taxes, and jobs allowed McDonnell to thoroughly dominate those issues.  The checks and balances message is a key one, but the bigger lesson about Obama’s impact on Virginia is that his policies have put fiscal and economic messages back into play for Republicans.