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Gulp: Double Dip Already Here?

According to the official scorekeepers at NBER, the last recession began at the tail end of the fourth quarter of 2007, despite GDP growth clocking in at a deceptively decent 2.9% in that quarter's final revision.

Our stalled recovery from that recession has seen growth ease from 5.0% to 3.7% to 2.4% over the last three quarters.  If a new look at trade data is any indication, though, the looming revision to the latest quarter's number could reveal an accelerating deceleration.

June’s trade deficit swelled 18.8% to $49.9 billion, the highest since October 2008. That was much worse than Wall Street predicted — or what the Commerce Department estimated in the recent Q2 GDP report. The new report, along with recent inventory data, suggest Commerce will revise down Q2 economic growth from the already-sluggish 2.4% annual rate to about 1%, according to Action Economics. Action Economics is looking for stronger retail inventory figures later this week that would imply a 1.4% GDP pace.

Such a revision (below, in red) would have us plunging fast toward the center line.

Real GDP Growth

Last year, The New York Times coined the term funemployment.  This summer, it's "recession with benefits."  What light-hearted labeling must they be working up now to whimsify a double dip?

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Gulp: Double Dip Already Here?

According to the official scorekeepers at NBER, the last recession began at the tail end of the fourth quarter of 2007, despite GDP growth clocking in at a deceptively decent 2.9% in that quarter's final revision.

Our stalled recovery from that recession has seen growth ease from 5.0% to 3.7% to 2.4% over the last three quarters.  If a new look at trade data is any indication, though, the looming revision to the latest quarter's number could reveal an accelerating deceleration.

June’s trade deficit swelled 18.8% to $49.9 billion, the highest since October 2008. That was much worse than Wall Street predicted — or what the Commerce Department estimated in the recent Q2 GDP report. The new report, along with recent inventory data, suggest Commerce will revise down Q2 economic growth from the already-sluggish 2.4% annual rate to about 1%, according to Action Economics. Action Economics is looking for stronger retail inventory figures later this week that would imply a 1.4% GDP pace.

Such a revision (below, in red) would have us plunging fast toward the center line.

Real GDP Growth

Last year, The New York Times coined the term funemployment.  This summer, it's "recession with benefits."  What light-hearted labeling must they be working up now to whimsify a double dip?