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New Home Sales: Expectations Right On Target*

Economists had expected this morning's look at new residential sales for July to show a decline of 2,000 to 310,000, roughly half the pace typical for a healthy economy.

And sales did indeed decline by 2,000.  But...

Sales of new single-family houses in July 2011 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 298,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.7 percent (±12.9%)* below the revised June rate of 300,000, but is 6.8 percent (±13.5%)* above the July 2010 estimate of 279,000.

If you get all cynical and assume that there's a systematic overstimation bias in the first reading, then we should really be comparing first readings to first readings, which suggests a much sharper drop of 12,000.  That would be a monthly decline of 3.8% (37% annualized), versus the much tamer 0.7% (8% annualized) reported.

God bless the revisions for sparing us ever seeing such unappealing numbers.

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New Home Sales: Expectations Right On Target*

Economists had expected this morning's look at new residential sales for July to show a decline of 2,000 to 310,000, roughly half the pace typical for a healthy economy.

And sales did indeed decline by 2,000.  But...

Sales of new single-family houses in July 2011 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 298,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.7 percent (±12.9%)* below the revised June rate of 300,000, but is 6.8 percent (±13.5%)* above the July 2010 estimate of 279,000.

If you get all cynical and assume that there's a systematic overstimation bias in the first reading, then we should really be comparing first readings to first readings, which suggests a much sharper drop of 12,000.  That would be a monthly decline of 3.8% (37% annualized), versus the much tamer 0.7% (8% annualized) reported.

God bless the revisions for sparing us ever seeing such unappealing numbers.