Suitably Flip

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Friday, Week 2

For answers to the most recent Bonus Bucks trivia questions, click here.

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Bonus Bucks for Friday, September 30 (the ones posted Thursday night).

1.  In the opinion of Morgan Stanley’s Adam Parker, how likely is a “global synchronous recession where deflation becomes more visible?”
B. 10 percent chance of occurring

2.  What reason did Ashraf Laidi give for the euro to drop to 1.29 vs the dollar?
A. Interest rate differentials

3.  Which UK political leader this week said that the country's economy needs to reward small businesses rather than "predators who are just interested in the fast buck"?
B. Ed Miliband

Thanks to commenters ak and Flight of the Conchords for covering the Bonus Bucks beat while I was out of range earlier.

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Previously:

9/29:  Thursday, Week 2
9/28:  Cheaters' Edition!
9/28:  Wednesday, Week 2
9/27:  Tuesday, Week 2
9/26:  Monday, Week 2
9/23:  Friday, Week 1
9/22:  Thursday, Week 1
9/21:  Wednesday, Week 1 (Supplemental Open Thread)
9/21:  Wednesday, Week 1
9/20:  Tuesday, Week 1
9/19:   Monday, Week 1: Trading Begins!
8/23:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Eligible Stocks, Funds
8/21:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (More Details)
8/20:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (Kicks Off Sunday August 21)

Full Archive:  CNBC Portfolio Challenge 2011

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Thursday, Week 2

For answers to the most recent Bonus Bucks trivia questions, click here.

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Bonus Bucks for Thursday, September 29 (the ones posted Wednesday night).

1.  A World War II-era British merchant vessel recently found wrecked off the coast of Ireland looks likely to contain the largest haul of shipwrecked precious metal in history. What is the metal?
C.  Silver

2.  Standard and Poor's warned on CNBC on Tuesday (9/27/2011) that Chinese property firms could face a severe liquidity crunch if sales drop by what percentage?
D.  30%

3.  What is the top office pet peeve for workers around the world?
B. People not taking ownership for their actions

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Previously:

9/28: Cheaters' Edition!
9/28:  Wednesday, Week 2
9/27:  Tuesday, Week 2
9/26:  Monday, Week 2
9/23:  Friday, Week 1
9/22:  Thursday, Week 1
9/21:  Wednesday, Week 1 (Supplemental Open Thread)
9/21:  Wednesday, Week 1
9/20:  Tuesday, Week 1
9/19:   Monday, Week 1: Trading Begins!
8/23:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Eligible Stocks, Funds
8/21:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (More Details)
8/20:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (Kicks Off Sunday August 21)

Full Archive:  CNBC Portfolio Challenge 2011

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Cheaters' Edition!

For answers to the most recent Bonus Bucks trivia questions, click here.

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No, this isn't going to be a tutorial on how to cheat at the contest.  But we will discuss a cheating strategy that I was tipped off to today by a reasonable and trustworthy source, who's done very well in this and the prior contests (without cheating).

First off, a number of commenters have been grumbling about the seemingly impossible gains put up by the traders on the leaderboard and jumping right to allegations of cheating (they must be, damn them - the gains are just too big).  But remember, despite the fact that you can't concentrate more than 25% in a single security, there are enough of those leveraged ETFs to stay highly correlated and juice the hell out of an already hugely volatile market if you time the swings correctly.  The FAS/FAZ pair, for instance (3x financial bull/bear) would've enabled you to make nearly 18% Tuesday (for 1/4 of your portfolio), simply by holding FAS until about 2:20, then swapping into FAZ.  Similarly, QLD/QID (2x Nasdaq) could've made you about 10% for another 1/4 of your portfolio.  Put four such trades together (with excellent timing) and the 10% eked out Tuesday by current leader Rahul Ghosh doesn't seem so damning.

Others have grimaced that some traders have multiple portfolios on the leaderboard (even multiple in the top 5).  Suzy and Mark Hempstead of Oak Lawn, for instance (Oak Lawn, Illinois and Oak Lawn, California, respectively...) occupy fully 8 of the top 20 spots.  Yes, this is surprising.  But there are mroe than 500,000 portfolios, so it's not unreasonable to think that a large number of traders are thus far playing the same strategy in multiple portfolios, planning to later split their winners into inversely correlated strategies.

With those benefits of the doubt duly voiced, the suspicions that lurk in the dark, embittered hearts of fellow traders tend to fall into two categories:

1) That people are using multiple accounts to trade more than 5 portfolios.  This has happened in the past (and is probably happening this year as well) and would frankly be a plausible explanation for the Hempstead Phenomenon.  I believe in the past we had traders plying this strategy claiming they were trading "on behalf" of various relatives for whom they'd registered accounts.

2) That people have figured a way to hack the game.  The particulars are incidental; basically any method by which someone can alter their score Ferris Bueller style.

The cheat I'm addressing here hails from neither category  It involves manipulation of the actual underlying stocks on their real world, meatspace stock exchanges.

Quoting from the tipster (wtih whom I've consulted both by email and by phone), the method is as follows:

It involves the buying and selling of Australian penny stocks such as IFN.ax which has a bid ask of 20 x 20.5, or [a spread of] 2 1/2 %,

1) Use real money in a brokerage account to buy a few shares of IFN.ax for 20.5 cents. 
2) Place a virtual buy trade for IFN.ax on CNBC.
3) Immediately and as quickly as possible, sell the real shares at 20 to create a low "next last sale".  The virtual trade to buy on CNBC then executes as a buy at 20 cents.
4) Place a virtual sell trade for IFN.ax on CNBC.
5) Immediately and as quickly as possible, buy the real shares at 20.5 to create a high "next last sale".  The virtual trade to sell on CNBC then executes as a buy at 20.5 cents.  Presto!  a 2.5% profit in minutes! (and a 2.5% loss on those real-money shares)
6) Lather, rinse, repeat and make guaranteed gains in your CNBC account every day.

This kind of manipulation of penny stocks is surely one of the reasons that CNBC applies a minimum market cap and daily volume for eligilbe US-listed stocks; not sure why they don't use the same guidelines on the ASX.

Anyway, in theory the method obviously works, so long as the stock is sufficiently thinly traded that you can execute steps 2-5 without the stock moving out from under you.  Indeed, IFN routinely goes for several minutes to the better part of an hour without a tick, which should be plenty of time to collect your 2.5% several times.  If you can make that double roundtrip trade 20 times per day, you've just made 12.5%.

Next stop, leaderboard.

Several questions remain.  In addition to the speed with which you can execute the double roundtrip, your execution error rate, etc., you need to worry about the real-world cost of each transaction.  The cheapest ASX commission I've seen advertised is $20/trade.  If you execute flawlessly, that'd cost you $800/day for your ill-gotten 12.5%.  That's $40,000 real, non-Bonus Bucks, God-fearing American dollars over the duration of the contest.  Yes, it pales in comparison to $1 million, but it's still a hefty ante, considering the risk of being caught, or worse, of being out-cheated by someone just as devious and slightly fleeter of finger than you.

We don't know the real world answers to these implementation questions because the tipster hasn't gone out and tried to do this.  He's simply noticed that the opportunity to do so seems to be there.  I tend to agree.  And if the opportunity is there, someone has probably at least tried to seize it.

If one or more people are cheating (beyond the more pedestrian multiple-registration trick and/or who knows what manner of cyberhackery), this would seem to be a fine way to go about it.  And make no mistake, it would clearly be cheating.

CNBC reserves the right to terminate Contest participation by, and to disqualify, any Participants suspected of cheating or attempted cheating, suspected of attempting to exploit the Contest or suspected of any other inappropriate behavior (including, without limitation, suspicion of market manipulation).  All such action will be determined by CNBC in its sole discretion.

To be really clear, I have no interest in seeing people cheat (or helping them do so).  On the contrary, if a few jerks are running away with the contest by skirting the rules, it pretty quickly ruins it for the rest of us.  Hence the post.  The idea is that a little harsh daylight cast on this practice (even if it turns out nobody's actually practicing it) will bring it to the attention of the contest admins, and encourage them to watch for it.

Feedback from admins (as well as current leaders, rank-and-file traders, dastardly cheaters, etc.) is hereby warmly solicited.

Update:  WEC in the comments notes this passage from the rules:

The Grand Prize Winner, Second Prize Winner and the Weekly Winners (collectively, the “Winners”) may, at CNBC’s discretion, be required within forty-eight (48) hours of notification to ... provide to CNBC a true and complete copy of all of such Winner’s brokerage statements and related trading records such as confirmations, covering the term of the Contest ...

That, of course, would pretty readily expose the cheat, but what's to stop the cheater from simply not disclosing the brokerage account he uses to trade on the ASX?  If the affidavit the winner has to sign includes a statement that you've disclosed all such accounts, then you'd be perjuring yourself, but we're already assuming this is someone willing to put tens of thousands of dollars into a risky gambit to poach a million dollars, so maybe that risk isn't terribly persuasive.  Especially since - correct me if I'm wrong - CNBC as a private entity can't go pinging every brokerage asking whether John Q. Cheater has an account with them.

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Previously:

9/28: Cheaters' Edition!
9/28:  Wednesday, Week 2
9/27:  Tuesday, Week 2
9/26:  Monday, Week 2
9/23:  Friday, Week 1
9/22:  Thursday, Week 1
9/21:  Wednesday, Week 1 (Supplemental Open Thread)
9/21:  Wednesday, Week 1
9/20:  Tuesday, Week 1
9/19:   Monday, Week 1: Trading Begins!
8/23:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Eligible Stocks, Funds
8/21:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (More Details)
8/20:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (Kicks Off Sunday August 21)

Full Archive:  CNBC Portfolio Challenge 2011

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Wednesday, Week 2

For answers to the most recent Bonus Bucks trivia questions, click here.

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Bonus Bucks for Wednesday, September 28 (the ones posted Tuesday night).

1.  What reason did economist Enzio Von Pfeil give for China's central bank to begin easing monetary policy?
B. Social unrest

2.  What Scandinavian country announced a domestic, $4.75 billion stimulus package on Sept. 20?
B. Sweden

3.  How many columns are visible along the front facade of former New York Mets star Lenny Dykstra's foreclosed home in Thousand Oaks, California?
C.  6

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Previously:

9/27:  Tuesday, Week 2
9/26:  Monday, Week 2
9/23:  Friday, Week 1
9/22:  Thursday, Week 1
9/21:  Wednesday, Week 1 (Supplemental Open Thread)
9/21:  Wednesday, Week 1
9/20:  Tuesday, Week 1
9/19:   Monday, Week 1: Trading Begins!
8/23:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Eligible Stocks, Funds
8/21:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (More Details)
8/20:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (Kicks Off Sunday August 21)

Full Archive:  CNBC Portfolio Challenge 2011

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Tuesday, Week 2

For answers to the most recent Bonus Bucks trivia questions, click here.

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Bonus Bucks for Tuesday, September 27 (the ones posted Monday night).

1.  How much did Singapore spend to host the just concluded F1 grand prix?
D. None of the above

2.  Switzerland recently set a limit for the Swiss franc's appreciation against the euro. What was that limit, of francs to euros?
A.  1.20

3.  According to the CNBC Explains video on hedge funds, most of them are set up as:
B.  Limited partnership

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Previously:

9/26:  Monday, Week 2
9/23:  Friday, Week 1
9/22:  Thursday, Week 1
9/21:  Wednesday, Week 1 (Supplemental Open Thread)
9/21:  Wednesday, Week 1
9/20:  Tuesday, Week 1
9/19:   Monday, Week 1: Trading Begins!
8/23:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Eligible Stocks, Funds
8/21:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (More Details)
8/20:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (Kicks Off Sunday August 21)

Full Archive:  CNBC Portfolio Challenge 2011

FoxNews.com Live 9-10

I'll be on on FoxNews.com Live Monday morning from 9-10, discussing the usual assortment of economic and political topics.

You can catch a replay at the link until 5 pm by dialing the tape back to 00:00.

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Monday, Week 2

For answers to the most recent Bonus Bucks trivia questions, click here.

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Bonus Bucks for Monday, September 26 (the ones posted Sunday night).

1.  Singapore hopes to become a major cruise center in Asia. How many cruise passengers passed through the city-state last year:
D.  1 million

2.  What nation's finance minister warned on Sept. 16 that a collapse of the euro could lead to war?
D.  Poland

3.  On September 20’s “Mad Money,” why does Jim Cramer think it’s a good time to buy technology stocks?
C. "Positive seasonality"

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Yes, you can still:

• Follow me on Twitter
• See what this is all about

Previously:

9/23:  Friday, Week 1
9/22:  Thursday, Week 1
9/21:  Wednesday, Week 1 (Supplemental Open Thread)
9/21:  Wednesday, Week 1
9/20:  Tuesday, Week 1
9/19:   Monday, Week 1: Trading Begins!
8/23:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Eligible Stocks, Funds
8/21:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (More Details)
8/20:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (Kicks Off Sunday August 21)

Full Archive:  CNBC Portfolio Challenge 2011

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Friday, Week 1

For answers to the most recent Bonus Bucks trivia questions, click here.

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Bonus Bucks for Friday, September 23 (the ones posted Thursday night).

1.  According to Daryl Guppy's post on Tuesday gold prices are likely to retest what level?
C. $1,920

2.  The F8 Facebook Developers Conference 2011, took place in:
B. San Francisco, CA

3.  The top institutional holder of Apple Inc stock is:
D.  Fidelity

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My otherwise triumphant return to the leaderboard at #16 was heartlessly overshadowed by SF reader and prolific commenter Jim Medlar, who vaulted all the way to #3, just a percent-and-change behind Scott Cole and Rahul Ghosh.  Way to go, Jim!  Best of luck with Friday's trading.  I have designs on trouncing you, naturally, but good luck in a pro forma way.

The Maldives beckon!

Update:  I tanked hard today, but Jim managed to put up another 4%, landing the #3 spot for the week.  A monster gain of 28% in a very rough week.  Congrats to Tina Smilek from Howell, NJ for edging him out with 29.7% and winning the first weekly prize package.  Tina, if you happen by the site here, say hello and let us know you're in the house.

Looks like Monday's Bonus Bucks won't be posted until at least Sunday night, so everyone go have a drink, rest up this weekend, and get ready to do it 9 more times.

Previously:

9/22:  Thursday, Week 1
9/21:  Wednesday, Week 1 (Supplemental Open Thread)
9/21:  Wednesday, Week 1
9/20:  Tuesday, Week 1
9/19:   Monday, Week 1: Trading Begins!
8/23:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Eligible Stocks, Funds
8/21:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (More Details)
8/20:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (Kicks Off Sunday August 21)

Full Archive:  CNBC Portfolio Challenge 2011

FoxNews.com Live 9-10

I'm on Fox at live.foxnews.com until 10 am.  Dial it back to 0:00 to catch it from the beginning.

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Thursday, Week 1

For answers to the most recent Bonus Bucks trivia questions, click here.

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Update:  Bonus Bucks for Thursday, September 22 (the ones posted Wednesday night).

Note:  Once again, the contest site is marking all answers wrong tonight, but should once again be normalized in the morning.  The contest admins assure me that they're "aware of the issues with the Bonus Bucks Questions and they are working to resolve the issue."  In any event, you'll probably want to double check Thursday morning to make sure you get credit.  The following are indeed the correct answers.

1.  What is the 8th most popular city for business?
B.  Madrid

2.  What is the 31st most safest bank in the world in 2011? (most safest?)
C. Cassa Depositi e Prestiti Turin, Italy

3.  In CNBC.com’s “Top 10 Green Cars 2011,” how is the Lexus CT 200h described?
B. “Sporty, little premium hatchback”

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With three days under our belt, the leaderboard has also been updated, with the following caveat from CNBC:

IMPORTANT UPDATE: The September 20th leader board positions and the total portfolio value calculations displayed on the site are inaccurate for some users due to a technical issue that we are working to quickly resolve.

Please note that this display issue does not, in any way, affect cash positions or trading activity. The leader board published after today’s US market close will reflect accurate positions and standing. Thank you for your patience.

This presumably explains the extraordinary outliers that appeared at the top of the leaderboard yesterday.  The current leading portfolio boasts a somewhat more reasonable $1,162,837.52, or a 13.9% gain over three days, excluding Bonus Bucks.

I fell off the leaderboard myself (from 14th to 63rd, with another at 78th), having been hammered in the final hour of trading, a miserable fate surely shared by some of you today.  To those who have asked, yes I've continued to trade just the leveraged ETFs I identified on Monday.  So far, it's been good for an 11.5% gain.  Maddeningly, intraday, I was up more than 16% (enough, I now know, to put me at #1 had I just stayed in cash as my reluctant trading fingers begged me to, when I foolishly thought I smelled a partial recovery coming around 3:30). 

Alas, we all have our if-onlys.

(Like #2-by-a-hair Tina Smilek, who probably wished she'd never fussed with currencies.)

But dwelling on the if-onlys does no good.  Moaning about them in a public forum like this, on the other hand, is mildly cathartic.

Previously:

9/21:  Wednesday, Week 1 (Supplemental Open Thread)
9/21:  Wednesday, Week 1
9/20:  Tuesday, Week 1
9/19:   Monday, Week 1: Trading Begins!
8/23:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Eligible Stocks, Funds
8/21:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (More Details)
8/20:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (Kicks Off Sunday August 21)

Full Archive:  CNBC Portfolio Challenge 2011

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Wednesday, Week 1 (Supplemental Open Thread)

For answers to the most recent Bonus Bucks trivia questions, click here.

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  Since we're now getting several thousand contest participants visiting the site each day, I thought it might be worthwhile throw open up a thread to your own trading ideas, insights, and frustrations.

What trades have been working for you?  What unreported bugs have you encountered on the trading site?  How are you positioning yourself ahead of the Fed decision?  Who feels like they're poised to hop onto the leaderboard tonight?  Any currency traders in the house that want to offer up a few tips and tricks?

Opine away in the comments.

Previously:

9/21:  Wednesday, Week 1
9/20:  Tuesday, Week 1
9/19:   Monday, Week 1: Trading Begins!
8/23:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Eligible Stocks, Funds
8/21:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (More Details)
8/20:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (Kicks Off Sunday August 21)

Full Archive:  CNBC Portfolio Challenge 2011

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Wednesday, Week 1; Yes, Bonus Bucks Are Broken Again; Update: Fixed, Again

For answers to the most recent Bonus Bucks trivia questions, click here.

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 Update (7 am): Once again, Bonus Bucks bugginess is cured this morning.  If the system marked you wrong last night, go back and try again.  It should work now.  I'm going to press harder today for an answer from CNBC as to why they can't seem to fix this, though.

Anyway, disregard the warning below.  Your boni await.

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Bonus Bucks for Wednesday, September 21 (the ones posted Tuesday night).

Warning:  As with yesterday, the contest site is currently marking these (and, I imagine, all) answers wrong.  If it's rectified the same way it was last time, you'll be able to re-submit your answers in the morning and get full credit.

1.  Which of the following is NOT true of the 'Death Shirt' that's included in October's John Wayne Auction?

C. It has a red stain from fake blood

2.  What is the third most dangerous job of 2011?

D. Pilots and Flight Engineers

3.  The world's largest, second-largest and third-largest auto markets respectively for 2011 are:

A. China, US, Japan

Also, we have some astounding leaderboard action to report.  The leading portfolio has racked up an incredible 24% return so far.  That may make it sound like the contest is unwinnable by we mortals, but unlike last time (when once-a-day trading made for a much tighter performance distribution), there aren't thousands of double-digit gainers to worry about.  So the current top 10 can easily be toppled whether or not they keep trying to knock it out of the park (which, of course, they'll need to continue trying to do to stay in the hunt).

As testament to the much more scattered distribution, you'll notice that your humble MDPC sherpa himself sits on the leaderboard at #14, with a comparably modest 8.3% gain.

Only four portfolios show double-digit gains.  Unless they liquidiate and hunker down (which would be contest suicide), you can expect that they won't all be listed on the leaderboard tomorrow.  (Neither, sadly, I suspect, will I.)

But for what it's worth, in case you have any use for a peek at my own trading strategy thus far, I've gone with what I outlined on Monday.  Trading a basket of correlated, leveraged ETFs, and trying to time the broad market swings.  So far, in one of my portfolios, I've gotten lucky enough to time it right.  Went bullish yesterday at the dip around 10 am, reversed and went bearish late this morning as the market seemed to be peaking.

Also, currencies thus far are playing only a minor role in shaping the leaderboard.  Only one of the top 10 has made meaningful gains in his currency portfolio (Rick Elwell, with two slots, has made $14,000 so far on that end of things).  A few of the top 10 have actually lost thousands in currency trading so far.  The good people at FXCM wouldn't like to hear it, but my advice (to anyone other than currency day trading gurus) remains to ignore currencies entirely and focus squarely on equities.

As for today, there should be plenty of money to be made by fleet-fingered volatility gluttons around 2:15 pm.  Brace for whipsawing good times.

Fans of this post also enjoyed...

• Following me on Twitter.
• Learning about this.

Previously:

9/20:  Tuesday, Week 1
9/19:   Monday, Week 1: Trading Begins!
8/23:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Eligible Stocks, Funds
8/21:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (More Details)
8/20:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (Kicks Off Sunday August 21)

Full Archive:  CNBC Portfolio Challenge 2011

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Tuesday, Week 1; Update: Bonus Bucks Busted; Update: Problem Solved(?)

For answers to the most recent Bonus Bucks trivia questions, click here.

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Update (7 am Tuesday):  The Bonus Bucks-motron seems to have been rebooted.  If you previously entered these correct answers and had them marked wrong, go back and try again.  You should be able to re-enter the answers below and they should be marked correct.  Please alert me if you find any differently.  (Note they've juggled the order of the questions since last night.  Click with care.)

I'm leaving the original discussion in the post and comments below for posterity, but you can now probably safely ignore the warnings.

Don't forget to bookmark this site for your daily trivia answers.

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Bonus Bucks for Tuesday, September 20 (the ones posted Monday night).  Read warnings below before submitting your answers...

1.  China's richest person is:

C.  A contruction machinery tycoon

2.  What is the fifth largest auto market of 2011?

D.  Germany

3.  What does CNBC's Jim Cramer think Tim Geithner is counting on when he says there's no chance of a Lehman-like collapse in Europe?
A.  Crony capitalism

Fair warning - while "A" is definitely the correct answer to the 3rd question (you can see the quote here  ), CNBC marked me wrong for it.  Let me know if anyone gets the same error (or discovers whichever wrong answer the buggy system is looking for).

Update:  More fair warning.  Commenters are noting that their answers to #1 and #2 are being marked incorrect as well.  I assure you - these are the correct answers, whether the system is behaving properly or not.

Here are sources, all from cnbc.com:

1. Construction Machinery Founder Is China's Richest Man
2. World's 10 Largest Auto Markets. #5: Germany
3. No European Lehman-like Collapse? Cramer said Geithner is counting on “crony capitalism.”

Sincere apologies to anyone who was hosed by the contest site's buggery after using my answers.  I'll email the admins and see if they can rectify (and make the necessary credits).  But if you haven't submitted your answers yet, you might want to wait and do it tomorrow (just make sure you do it before 4 pm), when the bug will hopefully have been resolved.

Stay tuned.

Also, now that the leaderboard is operational, we've got some useful data about the competition.  Using my best-performing portfolio as a benchmark (98.78% percentile, ranked #5,319), it would appear that there are roughly 436,000 active portfolios.  So there are at least 87,200 players - probably somewhat more, assuming a good number were too lazy to create all five portfolios.  This is a little surprising.  If memory serves (turns out I'm too lazy to check my own archives to find out), there were more like 750,000 active portfolios last time around.  And that was for a mere $500,000 grand prize.

Then again, I seem to recall the contestant count grew throughout the contest last time.  It may have been similarly sized at the outset.  But this year, there's no weekly winner's ticket to the post-season shot at the grand prize.  So it seems like the incentive to join the game already in progress is significantly reduced this year, given that it'd be difficult to catch up to the legions of tightly packed frontrunners without a full 10 weeks to play.  That would seem to translate into far fewer latecomers this time around (as lovely as those weekly vacation packages sound).

In short, for what it's worth, it appears the competition may be (modestly) less fierce (or at least less numerous) than last time.

Update:  From the comments - kudos to loyal reader Steven, leaping out of the gate in the 99.89% percentile, for 478th place.  Anyone in the house got him beat?

Since you're here, why not:

• Follow me on the Twitter.
• Or visit me at the office.

Previously:

9/19:   Monday, Week 1: Trading Begins!
8/23:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Eligible Stocks, Funds
8/21:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (More Details)
8/20:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (Kicks Off Sunday August 21)

Full Archive:  CNBC Portfolio Challenge 2011

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Monday, Week 1: Trading Begins!

For answers to the most recent Bonus Bucks trivia questions, click here.

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Today's the day.  Hop to it, folks.  If you haven't yet, make sure you've registered your 5 portfolios (all under the same account and email address, of course, lest CNBC bounce you) and get ready to begin trading this morning at 9:30 am.

Remember that in future weeks, trading of UK- and Australia-listed stocks (which all players are eligible to trade) will begin at 3 am Monday and 10 pm Sunday, respectively, Eastern Time.  Currency trading will begin at 5:15 pm Sunday in all future weeks.  Similarly, "tomorrow's" trading session will begin with Australia-listed stocks tonight at 10 pm, UK and currencies early tomorrow morning, etc.  Only on Day 1 of Week 1 does everything kick off with the opening bell at 9:30.

Do not miss out on the Bonus Bucks. Answer all three correctly for $6,000 in each of your 5 accounts.  Bookmark this site and return daily for the correct answers.

Today's answers:

1. Warren Buffett says Berkshire Hathaway's newly-hired money manager Ted Weschler will:

D. Pay a higher tax rate, but it doesn't bother him "one bit"

2. What is the second fastest car listed in the "10 Fastest Cars of 2011" slideshow?

B. Audi R8 (2011)

3.  China's premier offered to invest more money in Europe last week in return for what?

D. Recognition of China as a full market economy

(If you're looking for Tuesday's Bonus Bucks, which went online at 8pm Monday night, they're over here in the new thread.)

Bonus Bucks are included in the calculation of your weekly portfolio gains, so 5 days' worth is a 3% bump each week.  And don't abandon shattered portfolios either.  If you've managed to squander, say, half your holdings chasing busted IPOs, Bonus Bucks will suddenly become worth 6%/week to that portfolio, which might just help get you to Mauritius or Paradise Island.

More thoughts once trading begins and we can get a look at the trading interface, see how well CNBC's servers handle the new and terrible burden of real-time trading, etc.

Volatility Seeker's Playbook, 9/19:

Economic news

10 am:  NAHB Housing Market Index.  Market expects 15 (unchanged).

Earnings reports for Contest-eligible stocks

Pre-open:  LEN (Lennar Corp).  Market expects $0.11.  Actual:  $0.11.

During session:  None

Post-close:  None

And here's some more bonus content to get you started in style.  Below are 11 Contest-eligible, leveraged ETFs.  Since you can't concentrate more than 25% of any portfolio in a single stock/fund, you need to find highly correlated volatility if you're to have any shot of landing the weekly (not to mention the overall) prize.

With the market set to start the week on a frenetic note, there couldn't be a better time to kick off a few portfolios with concentrated, leveraged, directional bets.  So avail yourself of the following menu:

Bullish leveraged ETFs:

FAS    +3x    Financials
TNA    +3x    Smallcaps
AGQ    +2x    Silver
QLD    +2x    Nasdaq
SSO    +2x    S&P
UYG    +2x    Financials
       
Bearish leveraged ETFs:

FAZ    -3x    Financials
EUO    -2x    Euro
QID    -2x    Nasdaq
SDS    -2x    S&P
TBT    -2x    Treasurys

For example, loading up your first portfolio with a 25% position in each of FAS, UYG, QLD, and TNA would be a great way to get 2.5x bullish exposure to the overall market (with extra exposure to the ever-so-volatile financial sector).  Or you could swap out QLD for TBT if you wanted to focus away from tech and substitute negative exposure to treasurys (which have been moving inversely with equities fairly faithfully in recent weeks).

Remember you can trade all day long, so you could load all 5 portfolios with the same basket of correlated ETFs, then pick different times during the day where you wanted to try and time the market peak/trough and pivot from bullish to bearish (or vice versa).

While you're waiting for the CNBC servers to fill your orders, why not:

• Follow me on the Twitter.
• Or check out something really interesting.

Previously:

8/23:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge - Eligible Stocks, Funds
8/21:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (More Details)
8/20:  CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge (Kicks Off Sunday August 21)

Full Archive:  CNBC Portfolio Challenge 2011

Jobless Thursday (With Inflation, Manufacturing Kickers)

Three helpings of bad news this morning, so let's get to it.

Initial jobless claims jumped from an (inevitably) upward revised 417,000 to 428,000, confounding doggedly optimistic economists who expected to see a drop to 410,000.  The pattern of weekly revisions is now so well established that we can confidently chuck that 428,000 figure and assume it'll settle at 431,000 or 432,000 next week.

The preliminary number puts filings at their highest level since the end of June.  But if we find it revised to 432,000, you have to go back to early May to find a worse week.

Retail inflation also came in hotter than expected, with prices rising 0.4% in august, double expectations of 0.2%.  Core inflation rose 0.2%, in line with expectations.  This contradicts yesterday's wholesale inflation data, showing prices roughly flat for the month, in line with or slightly cooler than the consensus.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the New York Fed saw conditions deteriorate for the fourth consecutive month, dipping from -7.7 to -8.8.  Economists were expecting some improvement to -4.0.

Stock futures initially gave up some of their gains on the news, but recovered after the Fed's Industrial Production report showed activity growing at 0.2% in August (compared with expectations of 0.0%).  In early trading, major indexes were all about 1% higher, trading mainly on optimism about European debt crises.

You Know, for Kids

As is the current fashion, the economy laid another goose egg in August, as retail sales were revealed this morning to have risen 0.0% from July.

Economists were expecting an increase of 0.2%, a less complete slowdown from July's +0.5%.

President Will Gladly Pay You (Next) Tuesday If You Pass This Bill Today

The $447 billion stimulus jobs bill is paid for.  He's totally good for it.  Now Congress needs to pass it immediately, confident that they have the President's word that his plan to pay for it (to be unveiled next week) will be sound, doesn't rely on accounting gimmicks, and presumably makes use of as-yet undiscovered bipartisan deficit reduction measures that everyone will be really psyched about once he deigns to clue us in.

Update:  Whoops.  So much for no accounting gimmicks.  Turns out the tax hikes being offered to pay for the plan match 10 years of ostensible new revenues against just one year of spending.  But surely these one-time, extraordinary new spending initiatives will truly disappear after that year is up, right?

AP Fact Checks Obama's Grand Design

Specifically, whether the President's claims that the plan is deficit-neutral, fully paid for, bipartisan, and immediately effective hold water.

Verdict:  0/4.

Jobless Friday

Ouch.  Economists had expected job creation in August to fall to 70,000 from July's 117,000.

If only.

From the WSJ liveblog:

Payrolls were UNCH! Zero jobs.
...
That's a worse-than-expected number. Dow futures are down 140 points.
...
July payroll revised down to 85,000 from 117,000. Also not good.

In other words, once August is inevitably revised down next month, this increasingly managed-looking data series will actually show net job destruction for the first time in 11 months.

Despite the number coming in well below the breakeven level needed to keep up with inflation (even if you assume a population growth rate of 0.00001%), the headline unemployment rate held steady at 9.1% as erstwhile labor force participants continue to throw in the towel.

Equity futures promptly retreated, ushering in an ugly market open with major indexes all lower by more than 1%.

Jobless Thursday

The weekly unemployment report, due out in a few minutes, is expected to show initial filings dropping to 407,000.  Last week, they jumped from 412,000 to 417,000, which will undoubtedly be revised to 420,000 or so.  I'm less optimistic than the consensus view that we'll see a 13,000 drop.

Even if we do, we can likewise reduce any reduction by the customary 3,000-4,000 by which the government increasingly religiously understates the number on the first pass.

With the strong caveat that this is a volatile weekly datapoint, I'd look for a drop in the range of 0-4,000 (which is to say, actually a slight increase once today's number is revised upward next week, long after the "Hey, unemployment may still be sky-high, but it's falling slightly!" headlines have been duly archived).

Update:  Last week revised up 4,000 to 421,000 (no surprise).  This week's *wink-wink* number pegged at 409,000 (2,000 worse than expectations), to be corrected next week to 412,000 or 413,000.

Still, one notices that even after the revision, that would show a decline in new filings of around 8,000.  Another couple months of declines like that every week, and we might get close to breakeven.