Suitably Flip

Iowa Pick'em

With 2012 voting finally getting underway, it seems like as good a day as any to return from holiday hiatus.

The latest polling average has Mitt Romney at the head of the pack with 22.8%, 1.3 points over Ron Paul and 6.5 ahead of Rick Santorum.  Gingrich and Perry are at 13.7% and 11.5%, respectively, with everyone else in single digits.

Based on the candidates' likelihood of over- or underperforming their poll numbers, in light of organization and degree of fanaticism, and more than a little blind conjecture, I'm making two general predictions: 1) that the top 3 won't be Romney, Paul, and Santorum after all, and 2) that Romney doesn't win, but is nonethless awarded the only legitimate ticket out of Iowa.

As for the standings and percentages, here's my shot in the dark:

1) Paul: 30%
2) Romney: 28%
3) Perry: 13%
4) Gingrich: 12%
5) Santorum: 10%
6) Bachmann: 5
7) Hunstman: 2%

Given that Ron Paul is still Ron Paul, no matter how well he does, the only way I can see any viable non-Romney surviving the day is if Gingrich manages to outperform both Santorum and Perry by more than a rounding error, putting up a solid 3rd place showing.  There's no way Gingrich will win New Hampshire, but he's still strong enough in South Carolina and Florida that he can continue to make a credible case for moving forward if he's by far the best non-Paul performer among the non-Romneys.While I'm not predicting that will happen, I think that's the second most likely outcome, behind Romney walking away with it, albeit with a Paul thorn stuck in his side.

Use the comment thread to tell me why I'm an idiot make your own predictions.

Update:  So basically everything I didn't think would happen happened. Romney won (by an incredibly thin 8 vote margin), the top three did fall in line, Santorum outperformed his polling and Perry underperformed.

Sounds like both Perry and Bachmann are dropping out, which is not the best news for Romney. The results seemed good for Romney without the attrition. His two least viable opponents rounded out the top three, while more formidable Gingrich and Perry flamed out. Would've been a great leveler among the non Romneys if not for the consolidation. Assuming Bachmann and Perry make endorsements, the conservative vote could finally coalesce around another candidate, though perhaps the weakest of the five if Santorum is the beneficiary of the endorsements.

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Iowa Pick'em

With 2012 voting finally getting underway, it seems like as good a day as any to return from holiday hiatus.

The latest polling average has Mitt Romney at the head of the pack with 22.8%, 1.3 points over Ron Paul and 6.5 ahead of Rick Santorum.  Gingrich and Perry are at 13.7% and 11.5%, respectively, with everyone else in single digits.

Based on the candidates' likelihood of over- or underperforming their poll numbers, in light of organization and degree of fanaticism, and more than a little blind conjecture, I'm making two general predictions: 1) that the top 3 won't be Romney, Paul, and Santorum after all, and 2) that Romney doesn't win, but is nonethless awarded the only legitimate ticket out of Iowa.

As for the standings and percentages, here's my shot in the dark:

1) Paul: 30%
2) Romney: 28%
3) Perry: 13%
4) Gingrich: 12%
5) Santorum: 10%
6) Bachmann: 5
7) Hunstman: 2%

Given that Ron Paul is still Ron Paul, no matter how well he does, the only way I can see any viable non-Romney surviving the day is if Gingrich manages to outperform both Santorum and Perry by more than a rounding error, putting up a solid 3rd place showing.  There's no way Gingrich will win New Hampshire, but he's still strong enough in South Carolina and Florida that he can continue to make a credible case for moving forward if he's by far the best non-Paul performer among the non-Romneys.While I'm not predicting that will happen, I think that's the second most likely outcome, behind Romney walking away with it, albeit with a Paul thorn stuck in his side.

Use the comment thread to tell me why I'm an idiot make your own predictions.

Update:  So basically everything I didn't think would happen happened. Romney won (by an incredibly thin 8 vote margin), the top three did fall in line, Santorum outperformed his polling and Perry underperformed.

Sounds like both Perry and Bachmann are dropping out, which is not the best news for Romney. The results seemed good for Romney without the attrition. His two least viable opponents rounded out the top three, while more formidable Gingrich and Perry flamed out. Would've been a great leveler among the non Romneys if not for the consolidation. Assuming Bachmann and Perry make endorsements, the conservative vote could finally coalesce around another candidate, though perhaps the weakest of the five if Santorum is the beneficiary of the endorsements.