Suitably Flip

ADP: A Little Light

The ADP report on January's private sector job growth was a bit weaker than expected, coming in at 175,000 (versus consensus of 185,000) and way down from December's 292,000 (revised down from 325,000).

Economists are expecting Friday's government numbers to show overall employment growing by 125,000 in January, down from December's 200,000.  If we see an equivalent miss, coupled with an equivalent downward December revision, the much ballyhooed year-end breakout will all but evaporate.

Below, the blue line indicates reported employment growth, while the red line illustrates the updated data, if Friday's report underwhelms to the same degree ADP did this morning.

Crucially, it suggests we're still unable to get above (or even into) that breakeven range with any consistency, meaning the overall employment situation is continuing to degrade, not improving "more slowly than we'd like."

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ADP: A Little Light

The ADP report on January's private sector job growth was a bit weaker than expected, coming in at 175,000 (versus consensus of 185,000) and way down from December's 292,000 (revised down from 325,000).

Economists are expecting Friday's government numbers to show overall employment growing by 125,000 in January, down from December's 200,000.  If we see an equivalent miss, coupled with an equivalent downward December revision, the much ballyhooed year-end breakout will all but evaporate.

Below, the blue line indicates reported employment growth, while the red line illustrates the updated data, if Friday's report underwhelms to the same degree ADP did this morning.

Crucially, it suggests we're still unable to get above (or even into) that breakeven range with any consistency, meaning the overall employment situation is continuing to degrade, not improving "more slowly than we'd like."