Suitably Flip

Largely Worthless Jobs Report Pick'em

This is going to be the noisiest employment report we've seen in a while, not only due to post-Sandy and ante-cliff effects, but also because it's based on an earlier-than-normal reference week (due to the early Thanksgiving), so who knows how well the adjustment factor captures the slightly different seasonality.

My boldly noncommittal prediction is that the consensus estimates (90k jobs created, unemployment ticks up to 8.0%) will be meaningfully off, but that the field of asterisks will render the actual data less than hugely useful.  Pressed for specifics, I'd say we're more likely to come in meaningfully weaker than meaningfully stronger.  Let's say +50k payrolls and 8.2%.

But I won't be floored to see a crazy high-side number either (nor something closer to zero).  In the end, it's probably garbage.  But it's something to gawk at, nonetheless.

8:30 ET.

Update:  ZeroHedge with more on the quantitiative noisiness, but qualitative ugliness.

Update:  Yep, garbage.  +146k, unemplyoment 7.7%.  The seasonal adjustment czar just got a big holiday bonus.

Comments

Largely Worthless Jobs Report Pick'em

This is going to be the noisiest employment report we've seen in a while, not only due to post-Sandy and ante-cliff effects, but also because it's based on an earlier-than-normal reference week (due to the early Thanksgiving), so who knows how well the adjustment factor captures the slightly different seasonality.

My boldly noncommittal prediction is that the consensus estimates (90k jobs created, unemployment ticks up to 8.0%) will be meaningfully off, but that the field of asterisks will render the actual data less than hugely useful.  Pressed for specifics, I'd say we're more likely to come in meaningfully weaker than meaningfully stronger.  Let's say +50k payrolls and 8.2%.

But I won't be floored to see a crazy high-side number either (nor something closer to zero).  In the end, it's probably garbage.  But it's something to gawk at, nonetheless.

8:30 ET.

Update:  ZeroHedge with more on the quantitiative noisiness, but qualitative ugliness.

Update:  Yep, garbage.  +146k, unemplyoment 7.7%.  The seasonal adjustment czar just got a big holiday bonus.